Post-International/Pre-Champions League? Bring forth the mayhem. Real Madrid lose. Roma lose. Man Utd draw. Hoffenheim draw after leading 1-3. Leipzig again fail to score pre-Europa League. There is a vulnerability, and a consistent vulnerability, about certain sides post-International and pre-Champions League. 14:00 kick-off today for the live chat.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

13:30 – Bournemouth v Arsenal – 2.06 Arsenal

• 2 consecutive defeats for Bournemouth  – only 4 defeats all season though
• Europa League football for Arsenal mid-week.
• Arsenal only lost their opening 2 matches but their winning sequence since is ended by 3 score draws
• Arsenal failed to score in only their opener.
• Arsenal have scored 2 goals + in each of their last 5 away matches
• Bournemouth are yet to meet the top 7, Arsenal are 5th
• Arsenal have played only one of the top 13 away
• These gaps in form are off-putting and suggest opinion rather than stats based conclusions.
• I like Arsenal’s 2+ goal habit away from home and will trust on that today to get them unbeaten at least.

16:00 – Wolves v Huddersfield – 1.51 Wolves

• 11th v 19th. Wolves are the newly promoted side in the better form.
• Huddersfield have failed to score in 6 matches this season and have scored only a maximum of 1 goal away
• Their solitary win was v newly promoted Fulham at home.
• All of Wolves’ 4 wins ( 3 were 1-0 and one 2-0) came v 13th and lower.
• This is likely to be attack v defence. Wolves’ odds look a tad short for me but they could come out with a 1-0 win here , 1-1 worst case in what should be a very defensive match v 2 sides who would have marked this match against fellow promoted sides as a 3-pointer.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 – Freiburg v Werder Bremen – 2.6 Werder Bremen

• the market cannot split these 2 sides.
• 0-0 and 1-0 Freiburg last 2 head to heads. A reason for the odds?

Freiburg (11th)

• only 4 defeats
• both teams have scored in 8 matches.
• Freiburg failed to score in only 2 matches.
• Only 1 win v 10th and higher in 7 matches.
• 6 of 8 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Werder Bremen (7th)

• 4 wins in 5 matches and now 3 consecutive defeats
• Werder have scored in every match.
• Only 2 clean sheets
• only 1 0-0 at halftime came first match of the season

Conclusions

• the market is right here. Only 4 defeats Freiburg but 3 wins away Werder suggests they have equally as good a chance.
• Not for me. Inplay stats.

17:00 Mgladbach v Hannover – 1.5 Mgladbach

• 2-1 and 0-1 Mgladbach wins in head to heads.

Mgladbach (2nd)

• only 2 defeats came away
• 4 wins in 5 matches
• scored in every match.
• 5 consecutive home wins
• scored 2+ goals in each of those 5 wins
• 12 of 14 goals scored at home came 2nd half

Hannover (16th)

• only 2 wins came at home
• 4 defeats in 5 away
• only 1 clean sheet
• scored and conceded last 7 matches
• conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 5 away matches

Conclusions

• the market looks right here. Mgladbach should eye 2/3 goals at least.
• Mgladbach score a vast majority of their goals 2nd half so I would still look at 2/3 goals scored if they have not scored first half.

ITALIAN SERIA A

11:30 – Parma v Sassuolo – 2.38 Sassuolo

Parma (11th)

• failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
• a surprise 1-2 away win v Torino latest was a coupon buster.
• not met 5th-12th at home – gap in form. Lost to 1st and 4th at home
• 5 of 6 goals at home have been scored either side of halftime

Sassuolo (7th)

• 3 draws and a win last 4
• only lost to Juventus, AC Milan and Napoli. Parma do not quite fit into this bracket.
• failed to score only twice.
• all wins bar 1 have come v 14th and lower.
• 6 of 7 goals scored away came 2nd half , 4 of those last 15 mins of matches.

Conclusions

• the market cannot split these 2 sides which always suggests messy form. We have that here. Parma yet to meet 5th-12th at home. How can we gauge how they’ll play v 7th? Sassuolo wins, bar 1, came v 14th and lower. How will they perform v 11th?
• On form though, Sassuolo have only lost to really big guns and on that basis, I would look to them not to lose today

14:00 – Bologna v Fiorentina – 2.02 Fiorentina

• 2-1 wins for Fiorentina last season.

Bologna (17th)

• only 2 wins came at home
• 3 2-2 scorelines within their last 4 matches
• only 2 clean sheets
• 2-2-2-1 goals scored at home last 4 matches
• in their last 8 matches, no 0-0 at halftime.
• conceded 5+ goals in each of their last 2 matches
• in 5/6 matches v top 10 teams, home and away, conceded 2+ goals at least.
• 7 of the last 9 goals conceded away came 2nd half

Fiorentina (9th)

• 4 consecutive 1-1 draws
• failed to score in only 2 matches
• 6 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches
• all 3 defeats came away v top 4

Conclusions

• Bologna, when scoring 2 goals recently, are still not winning. This suggests vulnerability if leading. Lay them if they score first.
• Both sides are on a strong score draw sequence. Take a chance and lay the late score draw and hope this sequence ends.
• A slight nod towards Fiorentina whose 3 defeats have come away v top 4 sides. With Bologna in 17th, Fiorentina should not be losing.

14:00 – Empoli v Atalanta – 1.8 Atalanta

Empoli (18th)

• only 2 wins first and last matches played
• no 0-0 at halftime in the last 8 matches
• conceded in their last 9 matches and last 5 at home
• only 1 0-0 at halftime at home
• only wins came at home v 13th and lower.

Atalanta (8th)

• 4 of 5 wins came within the last 4 matches.
• only 3 clean sheets
• conceded in their last 6 away matches
• 2+ goals scored in each of their last 4 matches
• 3/3 wins v 17th and lower.
• 8 of 11 goals conceded away came 2nd half

Conclusions

• On form, I am with Atalanta here who have hit a solid winning streak and have a 100% win record v 17th and lower.
• Empoli do keep it very tight at home so it could be a 1-1, 1-2 but I do not think Atalanta should lose.

14:00 – Napoli v Chievo – 1.13 Napoli

• 0-0 and 2-1 Napoli last 2 head to heads. Tighter than the 1.13 odds suggests today
• Post International/pre-Champions League for Napoli.
• Win, Loss, Win, Win, napoli pre-Champions League. The loss? V Juventus.
• Napoli failed to score in only one match
• Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home
• 2+ goals scored by Napoli v 14th and lower. They play 20th today
• 11 of 15 goals scored by Napoli at home came 2nd half.Note that if 0-0 at halftime
• Chievo have not won a match this season. Only 1 clean sheet .
• Chievo have conceded in their last 9 matches
•  They have conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 5 away matches.
• chievo are yet to beat a top 4 team. All 5 Chievo goals scored away came 2nd half
• This should be an easy Napoli win. They tend to score 2+ goals v teams lower in the league and are generally unaffected pre-Champions League.
• Based on stats, lay the 0-0 in the halftime but note 11/15 goals scored 2nd half at home by Napoli,

17:00 – Lazio v Milan – 1.87 Lazio

• 0-0’s in the Coppa Italia recently.Spoils shared in Seria A head to heads last season
• Europa League football for both sides up-coming

Lazio (4th)

• only 2 defeats in 10 matches
• failed to score in only 2 matches
• 4 wins and a loss v Inter Milan in the last 5 home matches.
• only 1 0-0 at halftime at home
• no 0-0
• all defeats have come v top 6
• 2/3 goals conceded v top 6

AC Milan (5th)

• Europa League football up-coming
• 5 wins in 7 matches
• Losses have only come v napoli, Inter , and Juventus.
• only 1 clean sheet
• failed to score only twice
• only lost to top 3 – vulnerable v 4th?
• 6 of 7 goals conceded away came 2nd half

Conclusions

• a top 5 clash is likely to be tight. both teams have a strong scoring pattern. Both teams to score or a top 5 clash seeing teams cancelling each other out?
• Lazio’s concession of 2/3 goals v top 6 may see AC Milan unbeaten today. AC Milan though tend to lose to top 3. Will that extend to 4th? Note that AC Milan tend to concede 2nd half away so if 0-0 or 1-0 halftime, take a chance on an AC Milan concession.

19:30 – Genoa v Sampdoria – 2.6 Genoa

• the market cannot split these 2.
• 0-2 Samp and 0-0 last 2 head to heads.

Genoa (14th)

• no win in 6
• failed to score only once
• scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches
• only 1 0-0 at halftime
• scored last 6 at home
• conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 4 matches
• all wins v 17th and lower this season.
• 6 defeats and a 1-1 v 11th and higher.
• scored first in 6/6 at home

Sampdoria (12th)

• a draw and 3 losses last 4 matches
• conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 3 matches
• wins away v 8th and 19th

Conclusions

• both sides are conceding 2 goals regularly of late. Both are similarly positioned. I think both teams could score today. Lay the first team to score might be the trading angle.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

11:15 – Emmen v Excelsior – 2.02 Emmen

• no recent head to heads.

Emmen (13th)

• only 3 wins, 2 came away. Last home match saw a win.
• That was the only clean sheet all season
• 2 0-0’s at halftime at home
• only 1 home win v bottom of the league
• 6 of 8 goals scored at home came 2nd half

Excelsior (14th)

• 4 losses in 5 matches
• failed to score in only 2 matches
• no 0-0 at halftime
• only win away v bottom of the league
• 8 of 11 goals conceded away came 2nd half

Conclusions

• these 2 are in poor form and not really to be trusted. The stats tell us to lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market but scoring and conceding strong 2nd half bias.
• Inplay stats for me. I would lay a 2nd half 0-0

13:30 – Utrecht v De Graafschap – 1.21 Utrecht

• De Graaf are newly promoted.

Utrecht (8th)

• 4 wins and a loss last 5 matches
• only 3 clean sheets
• failed to score in only 2 matches
• 3 consecutive home wins.
• scored in their last 6 and last 6 at home
• no 0-0 at halftime at home

De Graafschap (17th)

• only 1 draw
• 6 losses in their last 8 matches
• only clean sheet first match of the season
• 6 goals conceded away last 15 minutes of matches.

Conclusions

• Utrecht are likely to score first and therefore negate any trading angle. Should De Graaf score first, they are layable. Utrecht are in good home form.
• Only 1 clean sheet suggests De Graaf will likely concede at some point.

13:30 – Feyenoord v Groningen – 1.32 Feyenoord

• 4 consecutive Feyenoord wins in head to heads.

Feyenoord (3rd)

• only 2 defeats came away
• 5 consecutive home wins
• failed to score only in those defeats
• only 1 0-0 at halftime at home
• 3+ goals scored at home v 14th and lower
• 9 of 13 goals scored at home came 2nd half

Groningen (16th)

• only 3 wins, 2 came at home
• only 2 clean sheets
• only 1 0-0 at halftime
• 100% defeats v top 6

Conclusions

• This should be a comfortable win for Feyenoord  3+ goals,
• Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

13:30 – Willem II v Vitesse – 2.1 Vitesse

15:45 – VVV and AZ – 1.75 AZ

SPANISH LA LIGA

11:00 – Atl Bilbao v Getafe – 2.14 Bilbao

15:15 – Sevilla v Real Valladolid – 1.39 Sevilla

• Valladolid are newly promoted.
• WDWWWLD ( W-win, D-Draw, L-Loss) is Sevilla’s pre Europa League record this season. The loss? It came v Barcelona .
• On that basis I cannot see Sevilla affected post-International/pre-Europa league today
• Only 1 loss in 8 matches for Sevilla came away at Barcelona. Sevilla find themselves 2nd in the league.
• 4 consecutive home wins.
• Only 3 clean sheets for Sevilla though.
• Sevilla scored 2+ goals in each of their last 4 home matches.
• Valladolid in 7th are having a good season. Note Sevilla beat 5th and 6th at home.
• Only 3 defeats for Valladolid v Barcelona, Alaves and Real Madrid. That’s good stuff!
• Valladolid are a little goal shy. 0-0-0-0-3-2-1-1-1-1-0-0 . That recent lack of 2 goals may see them undone today.
• Valladolid have yet to meet the top 5 away and did lose away v 6th
• I think this may be a case of Sevilla simply out-scoring Valladolid today who failed to score in 3 away v the top 11.  Sevilla do concede and I’ll love for Valladolid to score first and for Sevilla’s 2 goal habit to click in.

17:30 – Espanyol v Girona – 1.68 Espanyol

• Girona and Espanyol both won a match last season

Espanyol (5th)

• only 3 losses came away, v Alaves, Real Madrid and Sevilla.
• 5/5 wins at home
• 4 clean sheets in 5 at home
• 6 of 8 goals scored at home came 2nd half

Girona (11th)

• 2 draws and 2 wins last 4 matches
• no defeat in 5 away
• not played 2nd-8th away but are unbeaten away from home, including 2-2 v Barcelona

Conclusions

• Kudos to Espanyol. 100% wins at home but note Girona are unbeaten away from home. Has the market neglected to factor that in? Does it suggest the value lay in laying Espanyol if Espanyol scores first ( as they do at home?)

19:45 – Villareal v Betis – 2.26 Villareal

• Villareal tend not to lose these head to heads but last season both teams shared a win each

Villareal (17th)

• 3 score draws in 4 matches
• scored and conceded in their last 5 matches
• no win in 6 at home
• 5 0-0’s at halftime at home
• not played 13th or lower at home

Betis (14th)

• only 1 win in 5 matches came v Barcelona 3-4!
• 2 losses in their last 3 away matches
• conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 3 matches and last 2 away
• 5 0-0’s at halftime away
• not played 15th and lower away.

Conclusions

• Back 0-0 pre-match. Looks like a strong 2nd half goal pattern for both sides.
• Lay the 0-0 2nd half if 0-0 at halftime.
• a messy form match because neither sides has played lower 1/3rd sides.