ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

19:45 kick-offs

Fulham v  Leicester – 2.54 Leicester

• new manager syndrome for Fulham negates any form prior to this match.
• And it’s the man who won Leicester the title!
• Fulham were always going to struggle v Liverpool and Chelsea away but beat Southampton 3-2.
• A worry there that a team like Southampton, hardly goal laden, could score 2 goals against them!
• And that’s it for Fulham recent form.
• Leicester are unbeaten in 5 matches, 3 draws and 2 wins and conceding 1-0-0-1-0 recently.
• All Leicester losses this season have come v the top 8 where they have scored in all defeats.
• Really on season form, Leicester should not be losing today. They have a good defensive look to themselves, have goals in them but…..we have new manager syndrome for Fulham which may engender a positive response.

Wolves v  Chelsea – 1.81 Chelsea

• The grand plan for Wolves sees the wheels falling off. 4 wins , all to nil. Great when you can keep a clean sheet. But Wolves have now conceded in the last 6 matches, and , wouldn’t you know, see 5 defeats and a draw. Winning to nil is not a tactic that is working. They need to up the goal scoring count.
• Only 3 over 2.5 goals matches suggests they can be defensive but against classy opposition, fall foul late on.
• Wolves have conceded 2 goals at least in each of their last 3 home matches
• Wolves have scored and conceded without winning v top 8 teams.
• Their only home wins came v 2 of the current bottom 3.
• 7 of 8 goals scored by Wolves at home came 2nd half
• Chelsea have a sole loss v Tottenham, a pre-European Club competition match and a London derby so there were extenuating circumstances.
• 3 consecutive away clean sheets prior to that Tottenham away defeat.
• Chelsea have failed to score only twice.
• all Chelsea away wins have come v 14th and lower so an argument that their form may flatter them. Only 2 away matches v the top 13, and Wolves are 13th , saw no win.
• Best case today for Wolves is a score draw, I feel. They are scoring v the top 8 and may do so today albeit without winning. Simple angle.

Burnley v Liverpool – 1.31 Liverpool

• Were this last season, the market would not be as dismissive of Burnley who are floundering this season.
• I don’t see head to heads as relevant such is Burnley’s fall from grace this season

Burnley (19th)

• 5 losses and 2 draws last 7 matches
• only 3 clean sheets
• only 2 wins
• no 0-0 at halftime at home
• 5-0 away loss v 1st and 0-4 home loss v 3rd
• conceded 2 goals at least in 4/5 matches v the top 14 at home

Liverpool (2nd)

• must win for Liverpool to keep tabs on City. 5 point gap with a Liverpool game in hand
• failed to score only once
• 3 0-0’s at halftime in the last 4 matches ends that usual Liverpool lead halftime/fulltime pattern of earlier in the season
• 2 0-0’s at halftime away ( 29%)
• all 3 draws have come v the top 4.
• clean sheets away v 11th and lower.
• 3/3 wins home and away v 17th and lower without conceding

Conclusions

• an unreadable Burnley. I always think they will revert to the Burnley of last season but that is not happening.
• They look like a Championship side again, conceding 9 goals in 2 matches v the top 3.
• Liverpool tend to keep clean sheets v strugglers so if they score ( and they have only failed v Man City) they should win.
• Ordinarily I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market but 3 in 4 matches now for Liverpool puts me off. I expect 2 goals minimum from the Reds today

Everton v Newcastle – 1.57 Everton

• due deference to Everton or a market which sees through Newcastle’s recent winning run.
• 2 1-0 Everton wins last season

Everton (7th)

• Bar West Ham ( no offence ) it takes a good ‘un to beat Everton. Losses only v the Hamsters, Arsenal, Man Utd and Liverpool, the last 3 away defeats
• 4 consecutive home wins
• scored in their last 7 at home
• 4 wins and a 1-1 v 15th and lower at home.

Newcastle (14th)

• 3 wins and a loss last 4 matches
• all defeats home and away have come v the top 12. Like last season, a feeling Newcastle’s survival will be based on taking points from fellow relegation threatened sides.
• scored and conceded in all matches v top 8, losing all bar 1.
• 5 goals scored away first 1/2 hour of matches

Conclusions

• Newcastle quicker than Usain Bolt. 5 goals , all 5 goals, scored away first 1/2 hour. Watch out for that today. I think Newcastle are layable if scoring first. Everton did eventually score just a single goal v Cardiff but were utterly dominant. They may have the same struggle today despite dominance.  This might be a tight match but Everton should boss it. Note the Newcastle scoring and conceding v the top 8, albeit tending to lose. Do Everton have 2 goals in them?  Well, they did v Palace, Fulham and Brighton but not against Cardiff despite winning

20:00 kick-offs

Tottenham v Southampton – 1.38 Tottenham

• new manager syndrome for Southampton. Mark ‘Sparky’ ‘Hughesy’ Hughes is gone after failing to pick Matt le Tissier for his Southampton side.
• Head to heads again will not be relevant under present circumstances

Tottenham (5th)

• 7 wins in 9 matches
• no draw this season
• only 3 0-0’s at halftime
• no 0-0 at halftime at home
• all losses bar 1 came v the top 4
• only beat Cardiff 1-0 at home.

Southampton (18th)

• only 2 losses in 6, one v Man City. Old Sparky Hughesy Hughes did deliver 4 draws in those 6 matches.
• With Southampton scoring 2 goals in each of their last 2 matches, the sacking of Sparky Hughesy Hughes may have been a bit premature. Stuart Armstrong scored 3 of those 4 goals. Goals were Saints problem. Maybe they found a solution ?
• 3+ goals conceded in 3 matches v the top 3

Conclusions

• the sacking of Hughes may have been a tad ill-timed as there was improvement in Southampton, and 4 goals in 2 games but no wins.
• New manager may mess up the form reading of this match. But on form, Saints will not be winning today.
• Tottenham have had a couple of limp wins, 1-0 v Cardiff and 0-1 v Palace but if they show an ounce of the form they showed v Chelsea, they should win with ease.
• Remember Spurs no draw this season so note that.

Man Utd v Arsenal – 2.52 Man Utd

• too high profile a match for me to research, albeit to say that this is not the Arsenal side of old, which tended to roll over v fellow top 5 teams.
• Arsenal’s only losses though have come v top 3. United 8th at the moment.
• Arsenal failed to score only in their first match of the season.They scored and conceded in all aways
• United have conceded 3-2-3 v the top 5 but not met the top 4 at home.
• Both teams to score and Arsenal not lose? Do remember, 2.52 the favourite suggests it’s too tough to call

FRENCH LIGUE 1

I repeat what I said yesterday. I do not tend to research French Ligue 1. I find it a tough league so note that as you read the research below.

18:00 kick-offs

Reims v Toulouse – 2 Reims

Bordeaux v St Etienne – 2.6 Bordeaux

Caen v Nimes – 2.8 Nimes

Dijon v Guingamp – 2.34 Dijon

Lyon v Rennes – 1.58 Lyon

• 1-1 and 1-2 Lyon in the last 2 head to heads

Lyon (4th)

• only 1 loss in 11 matches came v PSG
• only 3 losses came without scoring
• 4 wins in 6 matches
• no defeat in 5 at home
• 5 0-0’s at halftime at home
• unbeaten home and away v 10th and lower
• 4 of 5 goals conceded at home came 2nd half
• scored first in 7/8 at home
• led at halftime in 5/8 matches at home

Rennes (14th)

• scored and conceded in 10 of their last 11 matches
• failed to score in only one match
• scored and conceded in their last 8 away matches
• score draws away v 3rd, 5th and 6th
• not beaten the top 9 home and away
• 11 of 14 goals conceded away came 2nd half

Conclusions

• both teams could score here today with Rennes not winning, if they continue their score draw record v 3rd-6th away.
• Lyon tend to score first . If leading 2-0, lay them or the score line in the hope both teams score.

Nantes v Marseille – 2.36 Marseille

20:00 kick off

Strasbourg v Paris St-G – 1.39 PSG

• the last 2 home head to heads have been 2-1 and 1-2.

Strasbourg (8th)

• only 1 loss in 8 matches
• only 3 clean sheets
• not played the top 5 at home.
• not beaten the top 10 yet this season
• 9 of 12 goals scored at home came 2nd half

PSG (1st)

• all wins bar a 2-2 draw with Bordeaux last match
• 6 clean sheets in 8 matches
• scored 2+ goals in each of their last 7 away

Conclusions

• Strasbourg yet to meet the top 5 at home and yet to beat the top 10 home and away.
• PSG are still scoring 2 goals at least and that should be enough today .

SPL

19:45 kick-offs

Motherwell v Celtic – 1.3 Celtic

• 1-1 and 0-0 last 2 head to heads at Motherwell suggests laying Celtic at 1.3 odds

Motherwell (9th)

• 2 consecutive home wins to nil
• 3 clean sheets in 5 matches – led to wins
• yet to beat the top 6 home or away
• 3-7-3 goals conceded v top 3 this season

Celtic (2nd)

• 6 wins in their last 7 matches.
• 9 clean sheets in 11 matches
• 11 of 15 goals scored away came 1st half
• all dropped points have come away
• clean sheets away v 5th and lower

Conclusions

• the head to heads tell us to lay Celtic at 1.3. Better yet if they score first.
• Season long form though points to a Celtic ability to keep clean sheets and score goals ( 6/7 wins).
• If you think Celtic can score today , lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. 11/15 goals scored away came 1st half
• Motherwell tend to win if keeping clean sheets but note they are yet to beat the top 6.

Rangers v Aberdeen – 1.54 Rangers

• 2 consecutive 1-1 draws in league head to heads.

Rangers (1st)

• 6 wins in 7 matches
• failed to score only twice
• only 2 0-0’s at halftime
• in 8 of their last 10 matches, Rangers have scored 2+ goals
• no defeat in 7 at home
• no 0-0 at halftime at home

Aberdeen (7th)

• 3 wins in 4 matches
• conceded in each of their last 6 away
• 2 0-0’s at halftime away ( 29%)]
• 5 of 6 goals scored away came 2nd half
• only won 1 match away v 9th and higher

Conclusions

• Aberdeen have not scored more than 1 goal v the top 2 and should that pattern continue, and Rangers continue to score 2 goals, a home win is forthcoming.

Dundee
Hamilton
£1,365

2.26
£249

2.3
£100

3.35
£106

3.5
£13

3.65
£30

3.75
£14

St Johnstone
Hearts
£17,714

2.66
£55

2.7
£50

3.5
£584

3.6
£328

2.84
£82

2.9
£21

Hibernian v St Mirren – 1.46 Hibernians

Kilmarnock
Livingston
£8,820

1.9
£284

1.92
£185

3.55
£599

3.65
£368

5
£125

5.2
£52