I know you love your horse racing punting, but have you ever considered the Beautiful Game ( no not Women’s Beach Volleyball – behave yourselves). I am referring to football, or ‘soccer’ if any of our American cousins are reading.
There’s money to be made out of the Sport. In these weekly eletters I’ll provide a glimpse into my approach to football betting and why the Big Money is in in play betting and ‘trading’ via the Betting Exchanges.
Don’t let the word ‘trading’ put you off. My definition of trading is ‘the anticipation of a future price movement’.
Anticipate that price movement correctly and you’ll be creating No lose positions, time and time again, like the ones below.
Afrter this particular point in each match, it doesn’t matter what happens. I win whatever the final result.
I have successfully ‘anticipated that future price movement’ and been amply rewarded for this skill which can be learned and replicated.
The Foundation to Success with Horse Racing and Football is ….
Research!
You horse racing form readers can attest to this. To uncover that value punt , you need to do some form reading, be it a horse’s past performances over today’s distance, ground conditions, in this class of race, running at today’s weight and for today’s jockey.
Football ‘form readers’ live and die by the stats. If you take the time to do some simple football research, you will be amply rewarded, and will have a greater advantage over your fellow punters and some bookmakers who do not research matches as thoroughly as they should.
Simple form reading for football involves :
- Looking at the home form for the home side
- Looking at the away form for the away side
- Looking at how teams perform against teams in different ‘sections’ of the League Table, be it against a top 1/3rd , middle 1/3rd or lower 1/3rd side.
There is one website which holds all the answers for you. www.soccerstats.com ( tip – use Microsoft edge in order to avoid those annoying pop-ups!).
This is the only site I tend to use in order to research football matches for customers at www.footballtradingprofits.com It covers all of the stats, patterns, streaks and sequences you need in order to get an edge.
In the accompanying video I’ll do a gentle introduction to this website.
The Football Season is admittedly a little ‘young’ for any strong form research to reward you. Early season, I teach members at www.footballtradingprofits.com to look at the following:
- Backing newly relegated teams in the hope they will find the lower league a lot easier
- Look at opposing newly promoted teams in the hope that they will struggle in the higher league
It’s a simple and very effective early season approach across all leagues.
Each week I’ll be previewing some of the key matches and you will see , as we get more matches under our belts, we’ll be able to create more accurate pictures of matches. Although I will research all leagues throughout Europe for members at www.footballtradingprofits.com , for this eletter we’ll take a look at the Saturday and Sunday English Premier League matches.
Do you see what I see?
Bournemouth v Tottenham – 1.91 Tottenham
The first thing you should note is the favourite and that favourite’s price. Just as with horse racing, the price can tell a story. The odds are in a decimal format which I use as they correspond with Betfair Exchange odds.
I note Tottenham have a new manager ( so if you are trying to work out this match based on last season’s form, that won’t work. New manager = new slate). I also note that Harry Kane is no longer playing for Tottenham. How impactful do you think is the absence of their perennial top goal scorer?
Please remember that these early previews have a very small sample of 2 matches to work from. That is not an ideal foundation at all. In fact, at www.footballtradingprofits.com I will not be researching any elite league matches until we have at least 6 matches under our belts. So you have a head start here!
After 2 matches, Bournemouth have drawn and lost, and both teams have scored. They have played a London team already in West Ham and drew 1-1. They scored first against Liverpool but lost 3-1 despite Liverpool’s Macallister being red carded.
Their sole home match was that 1-1 draw with West Ham
As to Tottenham? A 2-2 draw against Brentford was a London derby where , on closer inspection, one of Brentford’s goals was a penalty ( I do treat penalties with a degree of contempt.).
Tottenham scored 2 goals in a home win against Man Utd. The Brentford 2-2 was the sole away match.
Head to Heads are redundant here because of Tottenham’s key changes in manager and striker.
Early patterns? Both teams to score for Bournemouth without them winning. Are Bournemouth vulnerable if scoring first as they were at Liverpool?
Tottenham are scoring 2 goals a game without Harry Kane. Son is yet on the scoresheet. Will they continue to score at least 2 goals today?
Arsenal v Fulham – 1.20 Arsenal
As I mentioned in the first match, the odds leave clues. 1.20 decimal odds suggests a comfortable home win, scoring 3 goals at least. This is an assumption of course. We must note that this is a London derby and sometimes the form lines are thrown out of the window.
2/2 wins for Arsenal, both one-goal-in-it ( for you Asian handicap punters). The last match was another London derby where a 10 man Arsenal were mighty impressive in holding out against Crystal Palace to secure a 0-1 away win.
Their sole home match was a 2-1 win v Nottingham Forest.
Fulham started the season beating Everton 0-1 away from home. They played Brentford in a home London derby and lost 0-3. This was a red card affected match.
Early patterns – Arsenal are winning, but by just the one goal. It is hard to say whether Fulham deserved a 3 goal mauling against Brentford as the red card severely impacted upon the match.
The odds suggest 3 goals at least from Arsenal, and usually a breakthrough before halftime. We must though factor in the London derby element, where form lines are often thrown out of the window. Red cards for both teams last match may hint at discipliniary concerns, although the Arsenal red card was very harsh indeed and based on a throwing taking longer than the referee deemed allowable.
3-0, 3-1, any other home score are the usual scorelines for 1.20 favourites. Do factor in the above derby and red card elements though.
Brentford v Crystal Palace – 2.05 Brentford.
As you are learning I hope, we need to take note of Derbies. This is a London derby , the second consecutive London derby for both teams. You must acknowledge that the derby factor may produce a result not in keeping with any form lines.
Brentford’s solitary home match was a 2-2 v Tottenham.
Brentford came from behind in that match to take a 2-1 lead, but conceded a 45th minute goal. There were no second half goals in that match.
After the Fulham red card, Brentford really took advantage and won 0-3 away from home. This will be their third consecutive London Derby. They’ve scored five goals in the first two and they’ve had no 0-0’s at half time. Two consecutive over two and a half goal matches as well. Stark contrast with Crystal Palace who beat Sheffield United 1-0 away from home with a solitary second half goal and lost 0-1 to an Arsenal penalty. Very unlucky in that particular match. Is there a problem with Crystal Palace up front? You might ask yourself , scoring only one goal in two matches. Early patterns. Brentford are scoring two plus goals. Crystal Palace are having trouble scoring that second goal. I don’t like matches with contrasting form. Which of the teams’ early patterns will be dominant?
Everton v Wolverhampton – 2.3 Everton
You will learn over the course of a season that the higher the odds for a favourite, the tougher it is to split the teams.
Identical patterns really for these two sides. Both lost their first match 1-0. Both conceded four goals in their second match. In the first match, Everton conceded a 73rd minute goal to lose to Fulham
In Wolverhampton’s first match, which came away from home, they conceded a 76th minute goal to lose away at Manchester United.
In the second match, Everton were away from home to Aston Villa and conceded four goals, two in each half. Wolverhampton were 1-0 down at half time and conceded 3 second half goals. They scored a consolation goal in the 61st minute. So there’s very little that we can get our teeth into at the moment. Everton have failed to score in their two matches so far, which is a real concern. The manager, Sean Dyche, must be considered in the next manager to be sacked market. If you fancy a play there. No real trading angles at all or betting angles in this particular match. Both sides need to recover from conceding four goals in the last match. We’re likely to see an overreaction defensively from both teams. Goals are hard to come by for both teams as well. Do you want a back 0-0 pre-match? On that basis?
Manchester United V Nottingham Forest – 1.30 favourite Man Utd.
Manchester United won their sole home match 1-0 against Wolverhampton Wanderers with a 76th minute goal. They failed to score in a 2-0 away defeat to Tottenham. The second goal was an own goal.
Nottingham Forest lost 2-1 away at Arsenal and beat Sheffield United 2-1 at home. Contrasting half-time stats.
Manchester United have had two consecutive 0-0’s at half time. Nottingham Forest matches have seen at least a goal before half time. More contrast between these two sides. Manchester United have had two consecutive under 2.5 goal matches. Nottingham Forest have had two consecutive over 2.5 goal matches.
Both Nottingham Forest Scorelines have been 2-1. Is that a pattern to look at, particularly if Nottingham Forest score first? Will they likely concede and will one team at least score that 3rd goal in the match to bring in a 2-1/1-2 and over 2.5 goals?
Nottingham Forest’s major goal threat is Taiwo Awoniyi. He has scored in both matches so far. Chris Wood is a new centre forward for Nottingham Forest from Newcastle United. He scored the winner against Sheffield United. Is he going to be a threat? Watch out for him if he comes off the bench.
Little for us to read from both of these teams so far. Realistically, you would expect Manchester United at home to look at a rather comfortable win. Remember, Arsenal were leading two nil in the first half against Nottingham Forest before a late Nottingham Forest consolation goal. We might expect the same from Manchester United today, but they are a little thin on the ground goal wise, having just scored the single goal
The odds in themselves suggest that Man Utd can score 2 goals at least for the first time this season. Awoniyi is a value call for a goal?
Brighton v West Ham Utd – 1.53 Brighton
Immediately those odds surprised me. Why are Brighton such resounding favourites here?
2 consecutive 4-1 wins for Brighton. One came against newly promoted Luton Town. The second win was more of a surprise given the strong defensive display by Wolves away at Man Utd.
Is this goal haul the reason for such short odds? I am not convinced that Brighton should be so short.
Solly March has scored in each game, 3 goals in total so may be on your any time goalscorer radar.
Both teams to score has come in both West Ham matches, a 1-1 away draw against Bournemouth and a 3-1 home win against Chelsea, where West Ham played 23 minutes with 10 men and still won , thanks to a last minute penalty.
I am personally happy to lay Brighton at such short odds, particularly if they score first ( if we wait for them to score first , it will shorten their odds further. Layers love laying at lower odds. The liability ( risk) is much smaller. Will both teams to score come in, as it has done in both teams’ opening matches?
Sunday
Burnley v Aston Villa – 2.15 Aston Villa
This is a ‘sandwich’ match for Aston Villa between two Europa Conference League legs against Hibernian from Scotland. The 0-5 win in the first leg suggests job done. That makes it 9 goals scored in 2 matches.
European club competition can play a great impact on league form, so look out for that this season.
Burnley have played only 1 match, at home to Man City, a 0-3 defeat. There is absolutely nothing to take from this match for the newly promoted side.
Aston Villa lost 5-1 away at Newcastle and beat Everton 4-0 at home. The goal fests continue for Aston Villa.
There is very little to learn about newly promoted Burnley at the moment. Will Aston Villa fill their boots against a newly promoted side, with their 2nd leg Europa Conference League unlikely to distract them? Over 4.5 goals a stretch here but may offer value IF Aston Villa ignite.
Sheffield United v Man City – 1.17 Man City
As you saw in the Arsenal match, short odds brings expectation for Man City of 3 goals at least, and a possible breakthrough before halftime. Think goals – think goalscorers! Haaland is likely to be too skinny in the goalscorer markets alas.
Odds like Man City’s, I tell members of www.footballtradingprofits.com, are ripe for a Bet Builder. A Bet builder is an accumulator bet on a single match and is offered at bookmakers. Be wary. Bookmakers push these bets which means bookmakers profit from these bets! But if you use bet builders on short priced favourites , with a degree of creativity, you can catch a big odds winner .
Some ideas? Man City to win to nil, to lead in both halves, Haaland to score ( or even score 2 goals?), over 3.5 goals, and anything else you can think off based around a 0-3, 1-3, any other away score scoreline.
Man City have 2 wins to nil, so a clean sheet win might be in order. Sheffield United have scored 0-1 goals and these Blades look very blunt up front. They may need Sean Bean to come on 2nd half.
Newcastle v Liverpool – 2.20 Newcastle
The market relays a match which is tough to call. I refer to these big clashes of likely top 5 sides as ‘derby style’ matches.
In such matches it is very hard to predict a winner.
Newcastle are expected to be hard to beat at home. A 5-1 win v Aston Villa in their home opener caught the eye.
They lost 1-0 away v Man City so may have a way to go to challenge for the title.
Liverpool started their season with a ‘derby style ‘ match themselves v Chelsea, a 1-1 away.
They came from 0-1 down at home to lead at halftime and beat Bournemouth.
This match is, I’m afraid, too much of a derby style match for me to predict or give an opinion. Rather like certain horse races, we can avoid certain football matches which have that ‘unreadability factor’
I hope this attempt at research after a small sample of only 2 matches offers you a glimpse into the world of football betting and the opportunities you can uncover in the myriad markets that are on offer. Our approach at www.footballtradingprofits.com is , admittedly, a ‘wait and see’ approach. It is in the in-play markets where you can create really good value bets and trading opportunities. I’ll see you again next week to reflect on this week’s results and look towards next week’s matches and possible bets. This research has highlighted some key factors to consider when betting:
- The derby factor, whether it be an actual derby ( London derby) or what I term a ‘derby style match’ such as Newcastle v Liverpool. Form lines are difficult to trust in derbies.
- The odds. Short odds = goals . Big odds = a tough to call match.
- The European club competition factor. This factor is overlooked by punters and bookies alike. You will notice over the course of a season how some teams will play poorly in their domestic league match before or after a European competition ( Aston Villa are the only qualifiers this weekend).
- A focus on niche markets. In this research, I have introduced you to over/under 2.5 goals ( which revolves around there being 3 goals in a particular match), first half markets, both teams to score markets, traditional match odds markets ( home win, away win, draw) , and goalscorer markets.
You can watch the accompanying video here
If you’d like to try the full Football Trading Profits service for free – Click Here