Wednesday 7th February 2024 Football Trading Research

Scottish Premiership

19:45 – Kilmarnock v Livingston – 1.67 Kilmarnock

4th v 12th so a natural inclination towards Killy.
Only 1 loss since 6th December for Kilmarnock. 3 score draws in 4 matches.
Win, Win, Draw, Draw at home recently.
2+ goals scored last 4 at home.
Only 2 wins for Livingston who have not won a match since 21st October.
They have conceded at least 2 goals in 7 of their last 8 matches.
8 consecutive away defeats, no win in 16 and in 10 away, and conceding last 12 away.
Angles? An obvious angle isn’t it to take on a side in such poor form as Livingston.

3 draws and a win last 4 matches for St Johnstone. They have failed to score that 2nd goal in their last 12 matches .
Angles? I am going to cut this one short as the vote goes to Hearts, the best of the rest with the Old Firm taken out of the equation and a side, like Peterborough, who are trustworthy ( so far) in come from behind to win for a profitable trade. They have done so twice v Dundee in 2 3-2 wins. They have scored 2+ goals in 7 of their last 8 matches and may simply outscore St. Johnstone today. A solid trading side Hearts.

Only 3 wins for St Mirren since 28th November., the last 2 were 0-3 away wins!!
They have failed to score in their last 4 home matches, albeit they have met 1st and 2nd.
9/14 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
Only 2 wins in 10 for Dundee came away.
They have only lost one of their last 5 away and that was in scoring 2 goals v Hearts.
They have scored and conceded last 5 and last 4 away.
14 goals in total in the last 15 minutes of Dundee away matches.
Angles? If I am looking strictly at recent form ( I have no access to the Challenge Table as it does not appear for Scotland at soccerstats.com and fcstats.com is unresponsive), I like Dundee, particularly that battling 3-2 loss away v Hearts where they actually led . Given St Mirren are struggling even for goals, any replication of that performance v Hearts may suffice for Dundee v a weaker side today.

Only 1 win in 8 for Hibs included a 4-1 away loss v Celtic. They have conceded 2+ goals last 4 matches, including a couple of 2-2’s
5 consecutive wins for Celtic ended with a 1-1 away draw v Aberdeen. Celtic have conceded 2 goals away only once so that is a solid foundation to work from if Hibs score first.
A massive 11 goals scored away last 15 mins of matches.
Angles? it does look rather inevitable for a Celtic win. Hibs lost 4-1 away to them recently and also lost 3-0 to the other yardstick, Rangers. Celtic have been a little hit and miss with the expectation of a goal before halftime, so do consult the inplay stats if employing the 20 minute rule ( more in the review/preview video)

2 sides managed by Arthur Daley and Derek Trotter. Dodgy Dodgy Dodgy! Mainz showed their unreliability in utterly dominating the inplay stats v Werder Bremen without scoring. That is not the first time this has happened, as they utterly dominated Heidenheim without scoring and lost 0-1 there too.
They have not scored that 2nd goal in 9 matches now. Best case recently has been a 1-1.
They play a Union Berlin side who, when the market speaks, they tend to turn up. That was evident in their odds on status at home v Darmstadt and that ended 1-0 win.They have failed to score in their last 6 away matches.
Angles? Mainz cannot be trusted to score when dominating the shots and corner stats. Union Berlin cannot score away from home recently and only tend to get the win/draw when the market inserts them as odds on favourite or as near as damn it. It is a tough match to unpack. Remember to pick your battles and if you wanted to play, you might want to back 0-0 pre match at its highest point and see how long you can last.

About the author Clive Keeling

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