- Today’s Review/Preview looks at Friday, particularly over 2.5 goals. I have yet to jump in and share selections with you in a live environment, but today’s livestream will enable that. https://youtu.be/AJOEqaMomC4?si=38dBcwdxuotn36BJ
ENGLAND: Premier League
15:00 – Brentford v Leicester – 1.65 Brentford
- Brentford will look to continue their impressive home form as they host a struggling Leicester City at the Gtech Community Stadium this weekend. The Bees are buzzing after a hard-fought 0-0 draw away to Everton, achieved despite playing much of the game with ten men. That point ended a five-game losing streak on the road and keeps them firmly in the race for a top-six Premier League finish, sitting just two points shy of that mark.
The Gtech Community Stadium has been a fortress for Thomas Frank’s side, with Brentford amassing a league-best 16 points and scoring 18 goals at home so far. They are aiming for a fourth consecutive Premier League home victory—a milestone they’ve never achieved before. However, Brentford have a poor record against Leicester in top-flight encounters, failing to win any of their four previous meetings (D2, L2).
Leicester, meanwhile, face significant upheaval after parting ways with manager Steve Cooper following a dismal five-game winless run in all competitions (D1, L4). First Team Coach Ben Dawson steps in as interim manager while speculation swirls around Ruud van Nistelrooy taking the helm. Leicester’s struggles extend beyond their managerial crisis; they’ve won just once in their last 13 Premier League away games against London sides (D3, L9), conceding at least two goals in each of their last five trips to the capital.
Key Players to Watch
Bryan Mbeumo (Brentford): The Cameroonian forward has been a key figure at the Gtech Community Stadium, contributing directly to eight goals (G7, A1) in his last six league home appearances.
Jamie Vardy (Leicester): Despite Leicester’s struggles, Vardy remains a clinical finisher, scoring four goals from just five shots on target in the league this season.
Predictions and Betting Insights
Brentford’s strong home form and Leicester’s ongoing struggles suggest the hosts are favorites to take all three points. The Bees’ attacking firepower, particularly in the first half, could overwhelm a Leicester side low on confidence and struggling defensively.
Predicted Outcome:
Brentford 3-1 Leicester City
Possible Goalscorers: Bryan Mbeumo, Yoane Wissa (Brentford); Jamie Vardy (Leicester)
Betting Angles:
Over 2.5 Goals: Both teams have shown a tendency for high-scoring games, with Brentford scoring 18 goals at home and Leicester’s defensive frailties on display in their recent trips to London.
Both Teams to Score: Leicester may find the net through Vardy’s efficiency, but their defense is unlikely to withstand Brentford’s attacking pressure.
First Half Goal: Brentford are the Premier League’s top scorers in the first half (14 goals), while Leicester have struggled early on, netting just four in this period.
Key Stats:
Brentford are unbeaten in their last three Premier League home games, winning all of them.
Leicester have failed to win any of their last five competitive matches (D1, L4).
Brentford have scored 18 Premier League goals at home, the most in the league.
Leicester have conceded at least two goals in each of their last five Premier League visits to London.
Bryan Mbeumo has been directly involved in eight goals in his last six league home matches (G7, A1).
No team has scored more first-half Premier League goals than Brentford (14).
Betting Elements Highlighted
Over 2.5 Goals: Likely, based on Brentford’s scoring rate and Leicester’s defensive issues.
Both Teams to Score: Yes, Brentford’s attacking form and Leicester’s sporadic goal-scoring suggest both sides could net.
First Half Goal: Highly probable, considering Brentford’s strong first-half record.
15:00 – Crystal Palace v Newcastle – 2.30 Newcastle
- Crystal Palace welcome Newcastle United to Selhurst Park with both sides eager to reverse recent fortunes. The Eagles find themselves flirting with the relegation zone following a third consecutive match conceding twice in their 2-2 draw against Aston Villa. Injuries have played a significant role in their struggles, though reports suggest manager Oliver Glasner will receive financial backing in the January transfer window to bolster his squad.
Palace are hunting for only their second home league win of the season (D2, L3) but can take solace from their recent record against Newcastle at Selhurst Park, remaining unbeaten in the last three such meetings (W1, D2). However, goals have been hard to come by, with Palace failing to score in three of their last four home outings in all competitions (W1, D1, L2).
Newcastle arrive in London following a frustrating 2-0 home defeat to West Ham, where their inability to convert chances in key moments proved costly. Manager Eddie Howe attributed the loss to over-eagerness in attack, while defender Lewis Hall urged fans for patience. Despite the setback, Newcastle remain within touching distance of the European spots, and a victory here could lift them as high as sixth depending on other results.
However, history is not on Newcastle’s side. They have failed to score in the last six head-to-head meetings with Palace across all competitions and have lost six of their previous eight league visits to London (W2).
Key Players to Watch
Ismaïla Sarr (Crystal Palace): The Senegalese winger shone against Aston Villa, delivering both a goal and an assist. Impressively, Sarr hasn’t lost a club game after scoring since the start of last season (W4, D2).
Harvey Barnes (Newcastle): The midfielder has a knack for impactful contributions on the road, with his last three goals all coming away from home, including two late strikes between the 80th and 85th minutes.
Predictions and Betting Insights
This matchup pits Palace’s home struggles against Newcastle’s poor record in London, making for a potentially cagey affair. While Newcastle possess the quality to break their goal drought in this fixture, Palace’s resilience at home in recent head-to-heads could see them snatch a point.
Predicted Outcome:
Crystal Palace 1-1 Newcastle United
Possible Goalscorers: Ismaïla Sarr (Crystal Palace); Harvey Barnes (Newcastle).
Betting Angles:
Both Teams to Score: Likely, given Newcastle’s attacking capabilities and Palace’s vulnerability in defense.
Under 2.5 Goals: A low-scoring game is probable based on both teams’ recent struggles in front of goal and Newcastle’s inability to score in recent H2Hs.
First Half Goal: While Newcastle may start cautiously, Palace’s home pressure could see a breakthrough in the opening 45 minutes.
Key Stats:
Crystal Palace have conceded exactly two goals in each of their last three Premier League games.
Newcastle have lost six of their last eight league games in London (W2).
Palace are unbeaten in their last three home H2Hs against Newcastle (W1, D2).
Newcastle have failed to score in the last six H2Hs with Palace across all competitions.
Harvey Barnes’ last three goals for Newcastle have come away from home.
Ismaïla Sarr hasn’t lost a club game after scoring since the start of last season (W4, D2).
Betting Elements Highlighted
Over 2.5 Goals: Unlikely, given both teams’ scoring struggles.
Both Teams to Score: Yes, Newcastle’s attack and Palace’s defensive issues suggest both sides could find the net.
First Half Goal: Probable, with Palace looking to leverage home advantage early on.
15:00 – Nottingham v Ipswich – 1.62 Nottingham
- Nottingham Forest find themselves enjoying a rare high in their Premier League journey. Despite a comprehensive 3-0 defeat to Arsenal last weekend, the Tricky Trees remain in seventh place with 19 points from 12 games (W5, D4, L3). That marks their best start since the 1995/96 campaign, and a win here could potentially propel them back into the top four.
- Steve Cooper’s side, however, will be mindful of their recent inconsistencies at home. Their last City Ground outing ended in a 3-1 loss to Newcastle, part of a broader pattern this season where they’ve performed better on the road. Against Ipswich Town, Forest have history on their side, losing just once in their last six league meetings (W4, D1).
- Ipswich Town’s Challenge
- Kieran McKenna’s Ipswich have been a revelation since their promotion, showing they can hold their own against established Premier League teams. A 1-1 draw against Manchester United last week extended their unbeaten streak to three matches (W1, D2), including a remarkable 2-1 victory away at Tottenham.
- However, defensive frailties remain a concern. With 23 goals conceded, Ipswich have the third-worst defensive record in the league. Moreover, they carry the burden of a poor historical away record at the City Ground, having last won there in December 1999 (D6, L8 since).
- Key Players to Watch
- Callum Hudson-Odoi (Nottingham Forest): Known for his late heroics, Hudson-Odoi has scored his last four Premier League goals on or after the 65th minute.
- Sammie Szmodics (Ipswich): A first-half specialist, Szmodics has scored all three of his league goals this season in the opening 45 minutes of away games.
- Prediction and Betting Angles
- Given Nottingham Forest’s superior historical record and Ipswich’s defensive struggles, the home side has a strong chance to secure the win. However, Ipswich’s ability to score against big teams suggests both teams are likely to find the net.
- Predicted Score: Nottingham Forest 2-1 Ipswich Town
- Betting Angles:
- Over 2.5 goals: Both teams’ recent matches have seen goals aplenty, with Ipswich struggling defensively and Forest averaging better attacking returns at home.
- Both teams to score (BTTS): Ipswich’s scoring ability, even against top teams like Manchester United, makes this a solid bet.
- First-half goal: Ipswich’s first-half form, especially through Szmodics, increases the likelihood of early action.
- Key Stats
- Nottingham Forest’s last home league outing ended in a 3-1 defeat to Newcastle.
- Ipswich have not won in their last 14 away league visits to Forest (D6, L8).
- Callum Hudson-Odoi’s last four Premier League goals have come after the 65th minute.
- Ipswich’s Sammie Szmodics has scored all three league goals in the first half of away matches.
- Ipswich have conceded 23 goals, the third-worst defensive record in the league.
- Only Leicester (39) have had fewer shots on target in the league than Ipswich this season.
15:00 – Wolves v Bournemouth – 2.30 Bournemouth
- Wolverhampton Wanderers come into this fixture buoyed by their recent upturn in form, which has seen them climb out of the relegation zone. Following a 4-1 win over Fulham last weekend, Wolves are unbeaten in their last four matches and will aim to maintain that momentum. Meanwhile, Bournemouth are looking to bounce back after a 2-1 defeat to Brighton left them in 13th place with 15 points from 12 matches.
- Wolves: Building Momentum
- Wolves have turned their season around with consecutive victories after enduring a winless opening 10 matches – their longest drought since 1983/84. Notably, they have scored in their last 11 Premier League games, the joint-longest current run in the league. However, home form remains a concern, with only one win from six matches at Molineux this season (D1, L4).
- Key Player: Matheus Cunha
- Wolves’ top scorer this season, Cunha has netted seven league goals, making him the fifth-highest scorer in the Premier League. His contributions will be vital as Wolves look to overcome a Bournemouth side that has frustrated them in recent meetings, with Wolves failing to score in three of their last four head-to-heads.
- Bournemouth: Searching for Stability
- After a promising spell, Bournemouth’s form has faltered, with two consecutive defeats stalling their climb up the table. The Cherries’ defensive vulnerabilities have been a recurring issue, with just one clean sheet in their last 11 away league matches. Their last shutout on the road, however, came at Molineux, giving them some hope of containing Wolves.
- Key Player: David Brooks
- Brooks has shown his impact late in games, with five of his last six goals coming after half-time. His knack for influencing matches in the latter stages could be pivotal, especially given Wolves’ susceptibility to conceding late goals.
- Prediction and Betting Angles
- The contrasting forms of the two sides make Wolves slight favorites, but Bournemouth’s ability to score late and Wolves’ shaky home record suggest this could be a close contest. Wolves’ recent scoring streak and Bournemouth’s leaky defense point to a high-scoring affair.
- Predicted Score: Wolves 2-2 Bournemouth
- Betting Angles:
- Over 2.5 goals: Both teams have shown vulnerabilities in defense, making this a likely outcome.
- Both teams to score (BTTS): Wolves have scored in 11 consecutive games, while Bournemouth have found the net even in losses.
- First-half goal: Early action is likely as both teams look to set the tone.
- Key Stats
- Wolves are unbeaten in their last four matches, scoring 10 goals during this run.
- Bournemouth are winless in their last four away league games (D1, L3).
- Wolves have conceded a league-high eight goals after the 75th minute this season.
- Bournemouth have scored seven goals in the final 15 minutes of matches, tied for the most in the league.
- Matheus Cunha has scored seven league goals, the fifth-highest tally in the Premier League.
- Both Gonçalo Guedes (Wolves) and David Brooks (Bournemouth) have scored most of their recent goals after half-time.
17:30 – West Ham v Arsenal – 1.53 Arsenal
- London Derby so caution advised. Add in a booster for West Ham , winning away v a solid Newcastle, and Arsenal’s recent ropeyness, and this could be interesting.
- The stage is set for an enticing London derby as West Ham United welcome Arsenal to the London Stadium. Both teams enter this clash with mixed recent form and contrasting ambitions for the season, but the intensity of the rivalry ensures an unpredictable encounter.
- Recent Form
- West Ham United earned a surprise 2-0 win against Newcastle in their last league outing, building confidence for their return to home turf. With seven points collected from their last three home league matches, including a victory over Ipswich Town, the Hammers are enjoying a decent spell at the London Stadium. However, Julen Lopetegui remains under pressure, with his team in 14th place on 15 points after 12 matches.
- Arsenal arrive buoyed by a dominant 3-0 victory over Nottingham Forest and a midweek 5-1 thrashing of Sporting Lisbon in European action. Despite these highs, Mikel Arteta’s side has struggled on the road in the Premier League, failing to win in their last four away games (D2, L2). The Gunners, currently fourth on 22 points, will look to build momentum as they aim to close the gap to the league leaders.
- Head-to-Head Insights
- The last six meetings between these sides at the London Stadium have been high-scoring affairs, with at least three goals in each. Arsenal dominated their most recent Premier League encounter, a 6-0 victory last season, with Bukayo Saka leading the charge. However, West Ham have managed just one home win against Arsenal in their last five attempts.
- Key Players
- West Ham’s Tomáš Sou?ek has been pivotal, often scoring crucial goals for his side, including the opener against Newcastle last week. Jarrod Bowen and Mohammed Kudus also pose threats in attack.
- For Arsenal, Bukayo Saka, Kai Havertz, and Gabriel Martinelli have led the scoring charts. Saka, fresh from a goal midweek, will be a key figure alongside the returning Martin Ødegaard, whose creativity boosts Arsenal’s attacking options.
- Match Analysis
- West Ham’s recent defensive resilience at home contrasts with Arsenal’s inconsistency away. While the Hammers can take confidence from their current unbeaten home streak, Arsenal’s superiority in London derbies (W18, D6, L2 in their last 26) and potent attack suggest they have the edge.
- Predictions and Betting Angles
- Predicted Winner: Arsenal (2-1)
Arsenal’s firepower and better recent performances give them a slight advantage, though West Ham’s form ensures a competitive match. - Over 2.5 Goals: All of the last six H2H meetings at this venue have seen at least three goals.Both Teams to Score: 50% of West Ham’s home games this season and recent H2Hs suggest this outcome.First-Half Goal: Both teams have scored before halftime in half of West Ham’s home matches this season.