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IT was an exceptional Saturday last Saturday. Let’s hope for more of the same.
As a special Christmas treat for you, I’ll share with you the German Bundesliga research and Italian Seria A research. I’ll keep Spain for Members. The AI EYE is generated from my AI App which I hope to be able to release next year along with the excellent XG analyser which covers a huge variety of leagues.
These, and other apps, will get AI on our side, not to replace me, but in addition to my personal touch.
FOOTBALL TRADING ANGLES & MATCH PREVIEWS
Each match below includes:
Key football stats and data patterns
Verified decimal odds
Strategic Betfair trading angles
Suggested neutral market setups
Useful for BTTS layers, over/under traders, and live match odds followers
ENGLAND: Premier League
12:30 Aston Villa v Arsenal – 1.85 Arsenal
No direct research for this match. Again , as with Brighton v Aston Villa, we have 2 sides in electric recent form. Arsenal’s XGa needs no introduction. aston Villa’s emphatic dismantling of Brighton from 2 goals down means they are a real threat today despite the market’s assurances towards the Arsenal.
15:00 Bournemouth v Chelsea – 2.10 Chelsea
• Bournemouth
•4 defeats in 5 and plummeted to 14th place. Sole home defeat latest v Everton
•usually 2 goal heroes at home but Everton smothered them latest
• Chelsea
• should be better equipped for a fierce fixture list. But 3-1 loss to Leeds latest did see a trading profit from 2-0 to 2-1 if you greened out there. That put to bed a 3 match clean sheet winning away sequence
Angles: Chelsea failed to score only opening match of the season but no win in 2 and now Cherries no win in 5. We are starting the fixture congestion element now where Chelsea's squad strength is their strength. Recent defeats both puts a slight dampener on readability.
NEUTRAL: Chelsea do score so any 0-0 vulnerable?
15:00 Everton v Nottingham Forest – 2.15 Everton
• Everton
•3 wins in 4 required clean sheets, 2 of them were 1-0, the aberration was a 1-4 loss to Newcastle
•losses to Tottenham and Newcastle at home
•those were defeats within the last 3 home matches.
• Nottingham Forest
•3 wins in 4 matches. Last 2 were clean sheet wins
• 2 consecutive away wins to nil.
Angles: 2 sides with 3 wins in 4 matches, 5 of those were clean sheet wins. This is going to be a chess match between these 2 managers. Everton are scoring 70th+ minute goals. Tough to call particularly the new manager element about Nottingham Forest and both manager's reputations for defensive performances. Lay over 0.5 goals at the start of the match and hope the defences are on top?
NEUTRAL:
15:00 Manchester City v Sunderland – 1.25 Man City
• Manchester City
•a top 6 clash
•6 consecutive home wins. 2 goals scored by Leeds last home match and 4 goals scored by Fulham suggests City are already on the Mulled Wine
•3 goals scored in each of their last 3 home matches.
•have scored 2 goals before halftime last 3 home matches.
• Sunderland
•only 3 defeats came away and were the only matches they failed to score in.
•both teams scored in 5/6 recent matches.
• possible struggle for a 2nd goal away. In the win v Chelsea, the goal came 90th minute and was the only time they managed 2 goals away
Angles: Top 6 clash. City conceding 6 goals in 2 matches but are scoring 3 goals at home regularly enough to get themselves out of trouble. Sunderland, for me, have trouble with that 2nd goal away and that could prove fatal for the best performing newly promoted side by a country mile.
NEUTRAL: City are scoring 2 goals before halftime. 2-0, 2-1 if you fancy a halftime punt.
15:00 Newcastle v Burnley – 1.29 Newcastle
• Newcastle
• 3 wins and a 2-2 at home, starting to score 2 goals regularly too
•7 consecutive over 2.5 goals
•the reason they need 2 goals is because they keep conceding
• Burnley
• you saw with that brilliant 3-1 call last week that Burnley are goal merchant matches away.
•3-0, 3-2, 5-1, 2-1, 2-3, 3-2, 3-1 away results
Angles:Burnley away do score and make it competitive but concede 2/3+ goals. Simple angle. Trust Newcastle's 2 goal habit at home regardless of any Burnley 1 or 2 goal lead.
NEUTRAL: both teams to score, expectation of goals before halftime
15:00 Tottenham v Brentford – 2.30 Tottenham
Angles: London Derby. 2.3 the favourite. No thanks. AI Eye and XG IF you want to play
NEUTRAL:
17:30 Leeds v Liverpool – 1.83 Liverpool
• Leeds
• ONLY 4 WINS, both teams scored in 3 of them
•3-1 win v Chelsea at home latest. What happened there?
•2-1, 1-2, 3-1 home latest. Giving it some at home
•only 2 clean sheets means they need 2 goals minimum to win
• Liverpool
•4 consecutive away defeats ended with a 0-2 win v a Hammers side struggling at home for goals.
• 1-1 at home v Sunderland latest suggests TAXI FOR SLOT!!
•failed to score only twice
Angles:a dangerous side to trust Liverpool but we tend to see a goal at least from them so lay any 0-0 at halftime. Leeds are in fighting mood at home and could score but tend to be too loose defensively
FRANCE: Ligue 1( AI Eye and XG reports only)
16:00 Nantes v Lens – 1.70 Lens
18:00 Toulouse v Strasbourg – 2.50 Toulouse / 2.80 Strasbourg (closest favourite Toulouse)
20:05 PSG v Rennes – 1.27 PSG
GERMANY: Bundesliga
14:30 Augsburg v Bayer Leverkusen – 1.90 Leverkusen
• Augsburg
•only 3 wins
•only clean sheet last home match
• Bayer Leverkusen
•only 3 defeats
•failed to score only v Bayern Munich
•3 wins in 4 away saw both teams score
•only 1 0-0 at halftime
Angles:Odds are higher than what I would expect, maybe because Bayer are conceding but 3 wins in 4 away is robust. Augsburg are infrequent winners.
NEUTRAL:Bayer goals before halftime
14:30 FC Köln v St. Pauli – 1.95 Köln
https://footballtradingprofits.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Koln_vs_St_Pauli_Analysis.pdf
• FC Köln
•failed to score only once
•only 2 clean sheets
•both teams to score in 9 matches
•5-3-2-5-7 total goals at home
• St. Pauli
•9 consecutive defeats
Angles: St Pauli automatically opposable until they do something? Koln full of goals but both teams do score.
14:30 Heidenheim v Freiburg – 1.95 Freiburg
https://footballtradingprofits.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Heidenheim_vs_Freiburg_Analysis-2.pdf
• Heidenheim
• only 2 wins
•no clean sheet
• Freiburg
•only 4 wins, 3 at home
•last 2 defeats away v Champions League leverkusen and bayern
Angles:No clean sheet Heidenheim is the key stat here. Freiburg tend to lose away v big Champions League sides.
14:30 Stuttgart v Bayern Munich – 1.45 Bayern Munich
• Stuttgart
•5 consecutive home wins
•both teams scored last 5 overall
•scored all
•only 2 0-0's at halftime.
• Bayern Munich
•all wins bar a 2-2 v Union Berlin
•never scored less than 2 goals
•all bar 1 goals before halftime,
Angles:Stuttgart might be spurred by a 100% home record but have to tame a 2 goal habit at the very least from Bayern.
NEUTRAL:both sides strong before halftime. Bayern last 3 saw both teams score before halftime
14:30 Wolfsburg v Union Berlin – 2.15 Wolfsburg
• Wolfsburg
• only 2 wins came away
•4 consecutive home defeats, conceding 3 goals last 3 at home
• Union Berlin
•only 4 wins
Angles: Moving swiftly on.....
NEUTRAL:
17:30 RB Leipzig v Eintracht Frankfurt – 1.73 Leipzig
• RB Leipzig
• killer at home, 5/5 wins
•2 goals minimum scored at home
• Eintracht Frankfurt
•3 defeats came before 4th October , 2 v the top 4 ( play 2nd today)
•3 wins, 3 score draws latest
Angles:Leipzig maximum respect at home and play a Frankfurt side who have conceded 3+ goals in 2 defeats v the top 4. A 2 goal Leipzig performance again may seal it with Frank threatening a goal.
ITALY: Serie A
14:00 Sassuolo v Fiorentina – 2.55 Fiorentina
https://footballtradingprofits.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Sassuolo_vs_Fiorentina_Analysis.pdf
Angles: AI reports only at these odds.
NEUTRAL:
17:00 Inter v Como – 1.53 Inter
https://footballtradingprofits.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Inter_Milan_vs_Como_Analysis.pdf
• Inter
• only 4 defeats
•4 wins and a Milan derby loss last 5 at home
•failed to score only that match
•all 3 0-0's at halftime saw goals 2nd half
• Como
•only loss away v Bologna
•5 clean sheets last 7.
Angles: Como cannot be under estimated. lay over 0.5 goals pre match if this defensive Como turn up. Fascinating match up , closer for me than the odds suggest.
NEUTRAL:
19:45 Verona v Atalanta – 1.70 Atalanta
https://footballtradingprofits.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Verona_vs_Atalanta_Analysis.pdf
• Verona
• no win but 3 2-1 defeats last 4 = fight?
•conceding 2 goals last 3 at home
• Atalanta
•all 3 defeats came within last 4 matches.
•only 3 wins
Angles:Poor profile Atalanta. Untrustworthy and not the form of the Big Gun they should be.