Merry Christmas to You All. I hope you’ve had a great Christmas. We have a Mince Pie Mountain here and I am doing my bit to help dispatch as many as possible. Yesterday’s football was a real lesson in the Power of Red Cards to Change games. Remembering that football trading is ‘the anticipation of a future odds movement’, we had several instances yesterday of underdogs leading and red carded.
Why is this attractive? Simply, their odds are shorter and their player numbers are shorter. A great angle in for the trader. Take this a step further , Bristol Rovers yesterday led 2-0 and were red carded. With half an hour remaining, their odds are short enough to lay and Bromley’s odds big enough to back without undue liability worry.
Final Score? 2-3. KER CHING as us traders would say.
Here at www.footballtradingprofits.com I cover these angles and more free angles in the blog so look out for the articles. I try to post them daily. Free to View . Let’s get on to today and I’ve give you ALL of the research for free , in exchange for your Mince Pies! Deal? Watch the Live Video and Subscribe to Youtube to ensure you don’t miss out on these and free live streams ( none til the New Year – family and friends intrude!!)
Let’s start off with today’s Banker Bets.
- Senegal 2nd best ranked side in Africa pick themselves.
- Famalicao only get beaten by top 5
- Arsenal XGa picks itself
- Everton might find Burnley more amenable after losses to Chelsea and Arsenal
- Liverpool and Wolves share 0-0’s at halftime trends recently. Ekitike could be the difference in a Jota-remembered day
- Como might have the goal(s) to trouble Lecce who, though, have Fight and are Tight at home
- Pisa lack the goals to trouble the Old Lady
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PODCAST SUMMARY
Podcast Title: FootballTradingProfits.com Deep Dive (Telegram Members Only)
Host: Me
FOOTBALL TRADING ANGLES & MATCH PREVIEWS
Each match below includes:
Key football stats and data patterns
Verified decimal odds
Strategic Betfair trading angles
Suggested neutral market setups
Useful for BTTS layers, over/under traders, and live match odds followers
ENGLAND: Premier League
12:30 Nottingham v Manchester City – 1.57 Manchester City
• Nottingham
• new manager element and still a slight unknown as witnessed by a Fulham 1-0 win latest. 2-3-0-3 scored at home though recently under Dyche
• only 1 0-0 at halftime under Dyche
• Manchester City
• 3 consecutive 3-0's. Haaland scored 2 goals in each of last 2 matches
• good recent record for goals before halftime.
Angles: in 7/8 recently , City are scoring 3. Forest do have 2+ goals in the locker at home but an air of unreadability under Dyche. City 3 clean sheets. Forest might score but be outscored. Speculators might look at a 2-3 scoreline incase Forest ignite at home
NEUTRAL : goals before halftime City
ENGLAND: Premier League
15:00 Arsenal v Brighton – 1.40 Arsenal
• Arsenal
• only 2 defeats to 83rd and 90th minute goals
• 5 consecutive home wins, and getting 2 goals, so really making that amazing XGa work for them ( clean at the back and scoring at the front)
• Brighton
• no win in 4
• only 1 win in 5 away
• despite beating Chelsea away, general malaise conceding 2 goals too often
Angles: last year's Champions and this year's 3rd place the only sides to beat the Arse. Scoring 2 goals is delighting Arteta as well as it compounds the effect of a significant XGa.
ENGLAND: Premier League
15:00 Brentford v Bournemouth – 2.25 Brentford
• Brentford
• home solidity seeing them right. Only 1 home loss
• only 3 clean sheets
• solid 2/3 goals heroes at home
• Bournemouth
• no win in 8, bit of fight with 3 consecutive draws
• far too generous away conceding 2/3 goals with ease
Angles: A concern for the Cherries, with the Bees scoring 2/3 at home regularly, that they might be on the end of another tonking away. 3/4 under 2.5 goals recently for the Cherries sees them trying to stem the flow but be careful. The Bees' season hinges on home form.
ENGLAND: Premier League
15:00 Burnley v Everton – 1.95 Everton
• Burnley
• only 2 home wins v newly promoted. 4 consecutive home defeats
• 1-1 latest needed a very late equaliser
• Everton
• failed to score last 2 defeats v Chelsea and Arsenal.
• 4 clean sheet wins in 5 prior to that
• 2 0-1 away wins prior to loss v Chelsea
Angles: Everton look more robust. lay over 0.5 goals might get us something with 2 defensively driven sides. Could be a tight one
ENGLAND: Premier League
15:00 Liverpool v Wolves – 1.22 Liverpool
• Liverpool
• unbeaten in 5 now, 2 consecutive 2 goal wins
• Ekitike scoring 5 goals in 3 matches. He must be fit and available
• 4 0-0's at halftime in 5 matches
• Wolves
• 6 0-0's at halftime last 7 matches sees all defeats occurring 2nd half.
Angles: Lay over 0.5 goals and hope for a 0-0 at halftime. Indeed Liverpool have been keeping 0-0's at halftime. Ekitike may the key to any Liverpool success today. In rare old form. Must be the Mince Pies.
NEUTRAL : possible 0-0 at halftime
ENGLAND: Premier League
15:00 West Ham v Fulham – 2.55 Fulham
Angles: AI EYE only 1) odds 2) London Derby 3) New manager syndrome.
NEUTRAL :
ENGLAND: Premier League
17:30 Chelsea v Aston Villa – 1.83 Chelsea
• Chelsea
• only 1 win in 5
• scored 2 goals last 2 matches
• only 1 win v top 9 at home
• Aston Villa
• 11/12 wins.
• Morgan Rogers - 2 goals v Leeds, West Ham and Man Utd. He must be playing for the Villans to have a chance.
• 5 both teams to score wins recently
• 4/5 recent matches saw Villa score 2 goals at least
Angles: Villa have a real 2 goal threat and could outscore a Chelsea who do score v the top 9 at home but rarely win. The Longer Villa go on winning, though, the nearer they are to that winning run ending. Morgan Rogers may be the villans key here today.
NEUTRAL : 4-1-3-2 total goals before halftime in villa matches. 2 goal away habit a real embedded Villa pattern.
ITALY: Serie A
11:30 Parma v Fiorentina – 2.25 Fiorentina
• Parma
• 3 wins, 2 consecutive away v the bottom 3
• no win 6 at home
• Fiorentina
• first win of the season v 10 man Udinese. Can they build on it?
• Little else to add!
Angles: Awful sides. Lay over 0.5 goals incase Parma's failure to score surfaces and the Viola try NOT to concede v 11 men!
NEUTRAL :
ITALY: Serie A
14:00 Lecce v Como – 1.80 Como
• Lecce
• only 4 wins, 3 were 1-0.
• 2 consecutive home wins, DDLDWW at home, fight and tight
• 4 0-0's at halftime last 5
• Como
• solid under Cesc but 2 consecutive away defeats v Inter and Roma.
Angles: a more solid goal threat from Cesc's Como for me . Lay over 0.5 goals incase Lecce park the bus as they did v Napoli and in 4/5 recent matches.
ITALY: Serie A
14:00 Torino v Cagliari – 1.91 Torino
• Torino
• 2 consecutive 1-0 wins
• unbeaten at home v 11th and lower and play 15th today
• scored last 6 at home
• Cagliari
• only 3 wins
• scored in last 5 matches but only 1 win.
• unbeaten home and away v 12th and lower
Angles: We cannot discount Cagliari on that away record v 12th and lower ( playing 13th today). Both teams to score a possible BUT Torino doing 1-0 wins currently. Both teams are scoring in their matches recently.
ITALY: Serie A
17:00 Udinese v Lazio – 2.45 Lazio
• Udinese
• WLWLLWLWL recently. Too inconsistent
• Lazio
• 10 consecutive under 2.5 goals.
• 0-0-0-0-1 goals scored away
Angles: 2.45 the favourite AI Eye I think.
NEUTRAL :
ITALY: Serie A
19:45 Pisa v Juventus – 1.40 Juventus
• Pisa
• 0-0-0-0-0-1-0-0- goals scored at home. Already on the back foot.
• 5/6 0-0's at halftime recently at home
• Juventus
• 5 wins in 8, only losing to Napoli recently
• scored one goal max away v 16th and lower
Angles: Lay over 0.5 goals and hope for another Pisa 0-0 at halftime. Juventus have struggled v the bottom 5 away to score that 2nd goal so could struggle. But this really is a gap in quality which might negate our wish for 0-0 at halftime.
NEUTRAL :
PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal
18:00 Famalicao v Estrela – 1.51 Famalicao
• Famalicao
• only 4 defeats, 3 at home
• lost only to top 5
• Estrela
• only 3 wins
• not beaten top 13 and play 6th today
Angles: The market looks right here. Only the top 5 have beaten Famalicao this season
PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal
20:30 Estoril v Alverca – 2.10 Estoril
• Estoril
• only 4 wins,WLDWDW at home recently
• no 0-0 at halftime since 6th September
• only 1 home loss outside the top 2
• Alverca
• LWLWL away
• failed to score last 2
• only away wins v 15th and lower
Angles: trust issues as seen with recent form lines for both. On seasonal form, Estoril might be tough to beat outside the top 2 at home.
NEUTRAL : goal before halftime in Estoril home matches
AFRICA: Africa Cup of Nations
12:30 Benin v Botswana – 1.91 Benin
• Benin
• 92nd
• Botswana
• 138th
Angles: Must win after losses in opener. Rankings suggest trust issues.With must wins, the draw is layable
AFRICA: Africa Cup of Nations
15:00 Senegal v D.R. Congo – 1.73 Senegal
• Senegal
• 19th
• D.R. Congo
• 56th
Angles: Senegal have head to head dominance. Both teams won their openers.
NEUTRAL : Both teams have strong goal before halftime patterns.
AFRICA: Africa Cup of Nations
17:30 Uganda v Tanzania – 2.25 Uganda
• Uganda
• 85th
• Tanzania
• 112th
Angles: Both lost their openers so must win, 2.25 the fav suggests caution as do the rankings. Tanzania are scoring again under new manager.
AFRICA: Africa Cup of Nations
20:00 Nigeria v Tunisia – 2.35 Nigeria
• Nigeria
• 38th
• Tunisia
• 41st
Angles: Note the tight rankings and the odds. Too tough to call? Nigeria like both teams to score and Tunisia have an over 2.5 goals habit. Both won their openers.