- Plenty of peripheral leagues to interest including Portugal , German Bundesliga 2 ( check league positions for motivated sides such as play-off and relegation candidates) , Spanish Segunda , Turkish Super Lig , Belgian Juliper League , Danish Super League , Polish Ekstraklassa , Dutch Eerste Divisie (goals the main focus) , and our usual Friday staple of the Irish Premier Division and Irish First Division. Too young to trade these leagues but well worthy of your attention via in-play stats at least. I will start to research after about 6+ games have been played.
- It’s the ‘Curse of the Champions League’ this weekend. I have highlighted Champions League contenders. If ever they are gettable it’s pre-Champions League, particularly if these teams are away from home….like PSG and Bayern Munich!!
English Championship
20:00 – West Brom v Coventry – 2.10 West Brom
- 4 of West Brom’s last 5 defeats since 12th December have come away. 0-2 loss v Southampton at home latest though ended a run of 5 consecutive home wins.
- No draw in 6 at home.
- 5th v 9th, 0-2 win last head to head. West Brom not met 8th – 12th at home. Do note that this is a play-off six pointer arguably.
- v 6th-18th at home, all wins bar a draw.
- Only 3 defeats for Coventry since 11th November suggests that they are a tough nut to crack.
- They have scored in their last 10 away . 4 defeats and 2 score draws away v the top 8 saw both teams score.
- 19/27 goals scored away came 2nd half.
- 7 0-0’s at halftime away, none at fulltime.
- Angles? A play-off six pointer with the onus on Coventry taking points of an already top 6 Baggies side. Despite superb recent form Coventry have not beaten a top 8 team despite both teams scoring in all matches. With West Brom in excellent winning form prior to the visit of Southampton, that Coventry pattern may continue? And allow us to lay them if they score first? Look for 2nd half goals if none first half.
Spanish La Liga Primera
20:00 – Celta Vigo v Almeria – 1.73 Celta Vigo
- Only 4 wins all season for Celta Vigo includes a 2-3 win v Almeria earlier in the season. I am not going to dwell on these 2 teams, managed by Derek and Rodney Trotter ( Celta) and Arthur Daley( Almeria). Dodge pots.
- Almeria are yet to win a match this season. If only they can find the 2 goal touch they found v Real Madrid, Atletico Madrid and Barcelona, they could get the better of Celta. Remember that 2 goal haul last head to head ( not forgetting conceding 3 goals – D’oh!).
- A match to follow with interest but research is not wise.
German Bundesliga
19:30 – Freiburg( Europa League 7th March v West Ham) v Bayern Munich ( Champions League 5th March) – 1.44 Bayern Munich
- With Tomas Tuchel no longer the manager of Bayern Munich it is tough to quantify them pre-match. We cannot look at the season under Tuchel, as any new manager could engender immediate change ( be it positive or negative).
- A 2-1 win at home to Leipzig post-Tuchel impressed but the market admittedly did read Bayern well. Is that the case today? They play a Freiburg coming into this with 4 defeats in 5 matches, including a 3-0 defeat to Dortmund ( that could be a gauge to today’s match?)
- Both teams have scored in the last 3 Freiburg home matches. Bayern no draw in 17.
- 9th v 2nd, Freiburg must overcome a 100% defeat record v the top 5 home and away. Bayern no 0-0 at halftime away
- Angles? Well the market got the first post-Tuchel Bayern match right, inserting them as 1.65 favourite and them winning 2-1. Similar story today? They have a chance as Freiburg simply lose to the top 5 home and away.
- Lay any late draw. We may see a goal before halftime.
French Ligue 1
20:00 – Monaco v PSG ( Champions League 5th March)- 2.00 PSG
- 3 defeats and a draw in their last 4 home matches is not what Monaco need as preparation for the visit of PSG.
- They have scored and conceded in their last 7 matches and last 3 at home.
- 3rd v 1st it’s no wonder the market is hesitant to put PSG at odds on.
- 5-2 loss last head to head. 2-0 win at home v 2nd though, an unexpected 2nd in Brest!
- Only 1 defeat PSG came v Nice.
- 3 consecutive away wins, no defeat in 18 and in 11 away, they have scored in their last 16 and last 8 away. 2+ goals scored in their last 3 away.
- PSG have scored first in 10/11 away. I would prefer Monaco to score first from a trading perspective.
- 6/7 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
- Angles? A top 3 clash and the onus is more on 3rd place to take points off 1st place although the 13 point gap between the 2 looks insurmountable. PSG are extremely hard to beat, only Nice ( a Cote D’azur side like Monaco) have managed it. Monaco have scored and conceded last 3 at home without winning so I would look to lay Monaco if they lead.
Italian Serie A
19:45 – Lazio ( Champions League 5th March) v AC Milan ( Europa League 7th March)- 2.20 AC Milan
- I’m not going to make a call here. This is a derby style match, 2 well-matched teams and we have the Champions League factor for Lazio. Europa League on 7th March for AC Milan, making this a very messy match in which to rely on any form lines. Inplay stats or, remember, you can pick your battles!!
Dutch Eredivisie
19:00 – FC Volendam v NEC Nijmegen – 1.70 NEC Nijmegen
- Only 3 wins all season for Volendam.
- 6 consecutive home defeats.
- They have conceded in their last 16 matches and last 7 at home. 18th v 7th, Volendam are yet to beat any top 7 side home or away.
- 3-3 last head to head.
- 20/27 goals conceded at home came 2nd half. Only 2 defeats for NEC since 7th October.
- No win in 4 away, they have conceded in their last 11 away. Yet to meet the bootm 2 away, they have lost away v 14th and 16th.
- Angles? NEC come into this in excellent recent form since 7th October and are tough to beat, and should be for a Volendam side hopelessly lost with only 3 wins all season. Volendam may offer some resistance but concede a lot 2nd half , remember that if a tight first half.