Saturday 6th April 2024 Football Trading Research

Review/Preview :https://youtu.be/y-5k1zmi6js

Live : throughout the day on Telegram and at 14:30 for the Youtube Live Stream : https://youtube.com/live/0-Bun_Vg0Lg?feature=share

English Premier League

12:30 – Crystal Palace v Man City – 1.33 Man City

• New manager for Palace may surprise. Loss, Draw, Draw, Loss recently for Palace. That’s about all we can work with from Palace under new manager. Palace are yet to beat the top 5 but again, new manager might instil a sudden change at home?
• Man City are unbeaten in 15 and in 6 away matches. City are unbeaten home and away v 11th and lower, Palace are 14th. Only 3 draws there v 11th and lower , 2 v Chelsea and one v Palace ( 2-2). London teams troublesome for pre-Champions League Man City? The market got them spot on v Aston Villa although I did say to lay a City lead and we got a Villa equaliser.
• 20/29 goals scored away came 2nd half for City.
• Angles? We expect Man City to win. As I said earlier, absolutely spot on v Aston Villa, a top 4 side. The Achilles Heel for City? Palace have a new manager and it is pre-Champions League for Man City. Usually away from home pre-Champions League is a potential banana skin. The win v Villa was emphatic. Do check team news as it is a difficult period for City with 2 consecutive weeks of Champions League football.

15:00 – Aston Villa v Brentford – 1.70 Aston Villa

• 4th v 15th.With the top 3 growing distant,. it seems that Villa’s job is to retain a top 4 Champions League spot , their only realistic rival is Tottenham so this is a 2 team tussle for Champions League.
• Brentford are only 6 points above the relegation zone. 2 full wins required to catch them is a start, I suppose.
• Since 17th February, only Man City and fellow Champions League combatant Tottenham have beaten Villa.
• No draw in 6 at home.
• 4th v 15th, All wins bar a draw for Villa at home v 9th and lower. 1-2 win last head to head.
• Key goalscoring segments for Villa at home includes 16th-30th minute, and the last 1/2 hour of home matches.
• Only 2 wins for Brentford since the 6th December. Their last non-defeats were 3 home draws. It’s poor stuff
• No draw in 12 away, both teams scored last 3 away.
• All defeats away v the top 9.
• Angles? ON seasonal form, Brentford are lacking and a draw seems best case. 100% defeats away v the top 9 is damning v an Aston Villa hugely motivated to retain that last Champions League spot. Villa seem to be able to score last 1/2 hour of matches . Remember that if they are behind coming to the 60th minute. Lay any late draw.

15:00 – Everton v Burnley – 1.61 Everton

• 19th v 16th Everton have a match in hand. A Burnley win retains a bottom 3 place but narrows the gap to 4th bottom. Everton are 7 points above the relegation zone and that game in hand win will increase the gap to double figures and allow some respite.
• No win since 23rd December for Everton.3 draws and a loss at home last 4 matches.
• Both teams have scored in 5 of the last 6 matches. That’s as far as I’ll go with research. With these relegation six pointers, it’s really about recent form and in Burnley we see a side fighting with 3 score draws and a win last 4 matches. 2 consecutive away 2-2 draws, scoring 2 goals in 3 of their last 4 matches.
• Angles? I was umming and ahhing about Man City’s short odds v Villa. And it’s a similar story here. In a relegation six pointer, a very short odds on favourite looks out of place. Everton could be layable if leading, or even leading 2-0. Maybe the recent Burnley red cards are putting a dampener on the market here? Both teams to score a possible
• Burnley have scored 2 goals in 3/4 and Everton have scored 2 goals in 1/13 recent matches. I worry for Everton. The market doesn’t,

15:00 – Fulham v Newcastle 2.45 Fulham

• 2.45 the favourite gets the AI treatment.
• Fulham vs. Newcastle United: Premier League Preview
• Fulham and Newcastle United clash this Saturday in a Premier League encounter that pits two mid-table teams against each other. While both clubs are comfortably clear of the relegation zone, they are also looking to finish the season as high as possible in the standings.
• Newcastle United currently sit in eighth place with 44 points, just 13 points behind fifth-placed Tottenham Hotspur, who are vying for a spot in the Europa League. Fulham, on the other hand, are in 13th place with 39 points, well outside the European spots.
• In their last league outings, Newcastle drew 1-1 against Everton, while Fulham suffered a 3-1 defeat against Nottingham Forest. The previous meeting between these teams saw Newcastle emerge victorious with a 3-0 win at St. James’ Park.
• Newcastle has been dominant in recent encounters with Fulham, being unbeaten in their last seven league matches (five wins, two draws). Fulham, however, will be aiming to secure their first league win against Newcastle since March 2017.
• Key players to watch include Alexander Isak for Newcastle, who has been prolific with 15 goals this season, and Rodrigo Muniz, Bobby De Cordova-Reid, and Alex Iwobi for Fulham, who have been influential in crucial moments.
• Fulham’s home form has been decent, securing 28 points from 15 matches, while Newcastle has struggled on the road, winning just three out of 14 away games.
• In terms of betting angles, Newcastle holds the historical advantage in recent meetings and has a stronger goal-scoring record. However, Fulham’s home form could make this an evenly contested match.
• Key Stats:
• Newcastle is unbeaten in their last seven league matches against Fulham.
• Fulham has only won one of their last five home games against Newcastle.
• Fulham hasn’t won in their last eight matches against Newcastle.
• Fulham has scored in the second half in each of their last eight games.
• There have been three or more goals scored in each of Fulham’s last four home games.
• Conclusion:
• Based on recent form and historical trends, Newcastle United enters this match as the favorite. A possible scoreline could be Fulham 1 – 2 Newcastle United. Betting angles may include backing Newcastle to win or considering over 2.5 goals in the match.

15:00 – Luton v Bournemouth 2.05 Bournemouth

• 18th v 11th. A win for Luton could put them equal on points with 4th bottom Nottingham Forest. Little to motivate the Cherries with mid table mediocrity assured and relegation never a threat.
• Luton usually have an excellent both teams to score pattern, ended with a 2-0 loss v the Arsenal.
• Only 1 win in 2024 came at home v Brighton.They have scored last 11 at home.
• Only 1 home defeat v 8th – 17th but a 4-3 defeat latest, when leading by 3 goals at halftime. Gutted! Expect an over reaction defensively from Luton.
• They play a Bournemouth with 4 wins in 5, 3 consecutive home wins.
• 3/3 wins away v the bottom 4 does not augur well for Luton.
• Angles? Research shifts from season-long patterns to recent patterns given the obvious need for points for Luton. Both teams to score a strong possible with both sides having scored in 10+ consecutive matches. Luton will remember they scored 3 goals against Bournemouth away at Bournemouth but would rather forget that 2nd half . Lay any late draw of course.

15:00 – Wolves v West Ham – 2.40 Wolves

• 10th v 7th. West Ham are 12 points shy of a top 5 berth. Wolves are 15 points shy. Arguably these 2 teams are winding down. 11th April sees West Ham meet Bayer Leverkusen in Europe. They’ll need an Octopus in goal!
• As you know I won’t research these matches but I know AI that will…
• Premier League Preview: Wolverhampton Wanderers vs West Ham United
• Wolverhampton Wanderers are set to face off against West Ham United in what promises to be an intriguing Premier League clash on Saturday. Both teams are looking to secure a strong finish to the season, with West Ham aiming for a European spot while Wolves seek to improve their position in the table.
• Current Standings and Form
• West Ham United currently sit in seventh place with 45 points, while Wolverhampton Wanderers are in 10th place with 42 points. The Hammers are 12 points behind fifth-placed Tottenham Hotspur, making a push for the Europa League qualification challenging. Both teams are coming off recent draws in their league matches, with West Ham’s winless streak extending to four games.
• Previous Encounter and Key Players
• In their previous Premier League meeting, West Ham emerged victorious with a 3-0 win, with Mohammed Kudus and Jarrod Bowen making significant contributions. Bowen, in particular, has been a standout performer for West Ham this season, netting 15 goals and proving to be a threat in front of goal.
• For Wolves, Hwang Hee-Chan and Matheus Cunha have been pivotal with their goal-scoring prowess. Hwang leads the team with 10 goals, while Cunha has contributed nine times, showcasing the attacking threat Wolves possess.
• Home vs Away Records
• Wolves have had a solid record at home, with seven wins, three draws, and four losses in their 14 Premier League home matches. On the other hand, West Ham has struggled on the road, winning only six out of their 15 away games in the league.
• Recent Form and Tactical Insights
• Both teams are coming into this match on the back of draws, with Wolves showing a tendency to win or lose without many draws in recent games. West Ham’s away form has been concerning, with only one win in their last five Premier League away games.
• Key Stats
• West Ham United have scored before half-time in their last four fixtures.
• Wolverhampton Wanderers haven’t conceded in four of their last six home games against West Ham United.
• West Ham United have won just one of their last five Premier League away games.
• Both teams have key players who have been instrumental in their goal-scoring exploits.
• Conclusion and Prediction
• Considering the recent form and home advantage, Wolverhampton Wanderers have a slight edge in this encounter. However, West Ham’s quality cannot be underestimated, especially with players like Jarrod Bowen in fine form.
• Prediction: Wolverhampton Wanderers 2-1 West Ham United
• Betting Angle: Both teams to score, with a focus on Wolverhampton Wanderers’ home form and West Ham’s attacking threat through players like Bowen.

17:30 – Brighton v Arsenal – 1.60 Arsenal

• This is a test for Arsenal. An upcoming set of 2 consecutive wins of Champions League football whilst juggling a title push.
• 9th v 1st ( at time of writing.). Brighton are 13 points shy of a top 5 spot and honestly it seems it is season over.
• Brighton’s last 5 defeats, going back to a 2-0 loss to Arsenal, have all come away. They are unbeaten in 12 home matches, exactly the team a title chaser wants to meet……………..NOT
• Only 1 home loss for Brighton came v West Ham
• 2-2 and 4-2 win when meeting top 5 at home.
• 9 wins and a 0-0 v Man City for Arsenal recently.
• 4 consecutive away clean sheets. Arsenal have scored 2+ goals only once away v the top 8. Significant?
• Angles? I am not sure where research will lead as this is simply a must win for Arsenal. Interestingly, in playing 9th today they have scored 2 goals once only v the top 8 away. And with the Champions League coming up, this coud be a potential banana skin. What chance another 2-2 or variant thereof for Brighton at home v the top 5? Remember only 1 home loss for Brighton. Both teams to score a possible but that will be tested by those 4 consecutive away clean sheets for Arsenal

German Bundesliga

14:30 Freiburg v RB Leipzig 1.65 Leipzig

• 8th v 5th. Only 3 wins in 2024 for Freiburg , the last 2 came away.
• Both teams scored in the last 5 at home. Freiburg have scored 2+ goals in the last 4 and last 3 at home.
• 10 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches.
• 3-1 loss last head to head. Freiburg have lost 8 and drawn 1 v the top 5.
• Only 1 loss for Leipzig since 4th February. 3 wins and a draw last 4 matches.
• 2 consecutive away wins , scoring 9 goals.
• Both teams scored in the last 8 away matches. 20/28 goals scored away came 2nd half
• Angles? Freiburg look poor this 2024, no Champions League distractions for Leipzig suggests they should take advantage, Both teams do score and Freiburg would be layable if leading. Leipzig are strong 2nd half goal scorers.

14:30 Heidenheim v Bayern Munich 1.35 Bayern Munich

• A small kick about with Arsenal on the 9th April may distract an away from home Bayern today. They lost, at similar odds, to Dortmund last match.
• 11th v 2nd, the title looks distant for Bayern Munich. Heidenheim are 11 points shy of a top 6 spot.
• Only 1 win for Heidenheim since 13th January hides 7 draws, 6 of which were score draws.
• 1-2 v Leverkusen, 1-2 v Frankfurt and 1-1 last 3 home matches. Keeping it very tight v Leverkusen suggests that Bayern’s odds might be too short today. I would certainly not back them.
• 11th v 2nd, 4-2 loss last head to head. Only 1 win home and away v the top 7
• 60+% of goals came 2nd half at home.
• Loss, Loss, Draw, Win away recentlty for Bayern Munich. The win was v a poor Darmstadt. Something is rotten in the kingdom of Bayern.
• Bayern have conceded in the last 9 and last 7 away
• 2+ goals scored last 3 away.
• Only 1 loss away v 7th and lower, tending to score 2+ goals in all bar 1
• Angles? I would lay any Bayern lead, be it 0-1 or 0-2. They look decidedly ropey and this is pre-Champions League and away from home. Expect 2nd half goals if none first half.Heidenheim do a lot of score draws so do have a goal in them.

14:30 Koln v Bochum 2.20 Koln

• Not liking the teams or the odds so I will use AI.
• Bochum vs Köln: Bundesliga Match Preview
• Bochum is set to clash with Köln in a crucial Bundesliga encounter as both teams fight to secure their positions in the league. The match, scheduled to take place at RheinEnergieSTADION on Saturday, holds significant importance for both sides, especially considering their current standings and recent performances.
• Current Standings and Form:
• Köln finds themselves in a precarious position, sitting in 17th place with 19 points and seven matches left in the season. Bochum, on the other hand, is placed 15th with 26 points. Köln’s recent form has been concerning, with a winless streak of seven matches (D4, L3), while Bochum has also struggled, going winless in their last five games (D1, L4).
• Previous Encounter and Head-to-Head Record:
• The last time these two teams met, they played out a 1-1 draw, with Bochum having the upper hand in recent encounters, being unbeaten in their last four matches against Köln. However, Köln will be eager to turn the tables and secure a crucial victory.
• Key Players:
• For Bochum, Takuma Asano and Kevin Stöger have been instrumental, scoring six and five goals respectively. Köln relies on players like Davie Selke and Faride Alidou, with Selke being their top scorer with six goals.
• Home and Away Form:
• Köln has struggled at home, with just two wins in 13 Bundesliga matches at RheinEnergieSTADION this season. Bochum, on the other hand, has a poor away record, with just one win in league away contests.
• Key Stats:
• Köln has scored a league-low four first-half Bundesliga goals at home this season.
• Bochum has conceded the first goal in their last six away games.
• Köln has won just one of their last five Bundesliga home games.
• Bochum has the better head-to-head record recently, unbeaten in their last four matches against Köln.
• Conclusion:
• Given Köln’s struggles at home and Bochum’s recent dominance in head-to-head encounters, Bochum seems to have the edge in this match. A possible outcome could be a 2-1 victory for Bochum, with Kevin Stöger and Takuma Asano making significant contributions.
• Betting Angles:
• Considering Köln’s poor home form and Bochum’s recent dominance, betting on Bochum to win or to score first could be favorable. Additionally, given Bochum’s tendency to concede early goals away from home, a bet on both teams to score in the first half could also be an interesting angle to consider.
• Overall, this match promises to be a tense and crucial encounter, with both teams eager to secure vital points in their battle to avoid relegation.

14:30 Mainz v Darmstadt 1.40 Mainz

• I won’t delve too deep. Regular livestream attendees know the Mainz deal. They do find scoring 2 goals from open play difficult. Yes they scored 2 goals recently but one of those goals was a penalty. 16th v 18th, Mainz hold that precious 3rd bottom place, where there will be a relegation play-off. Darmstadt are on 14 points and done and dusted. Mainz are unbeaten home and away v 13th and lower albeit 6/7 draws
• 0-0 last head to head.
• Angles? Monitor this Mainz side incase their inability to score 2 goals bites again. They must win really with Darmstadt relegated . Mainz will remain 3rd bottom with a win but close the gap on 4th bottom.

14:30 – Union Berlin v Bayer Leverkusen 1.53 Bayer Leverkusen

• Europa League for Bayer Leverkusen on the 11th April v West Ham. Alonso may rest some players. Like Bayern Munich, Bayer are away from home and these pre-European sides are more vulnerable away from home.
• 12th v 1st, the simple rule with Union Berlin, which still serves us well, is that when the market speaks in their favour, they tend to perform ( translated as not lose!!)
• All wins bar 1 home and away for Bayer v 5th and lower. 2+ goals scored regualrly.
• Angles? No need for indepth research. A natural bias towards Bayer. Despite 3 wins in 5 at home for Union, I remind you that in all of those cases, the market had Union Berlin as favourite. 8 consecutive Leverkusen matches with a goal at least before halftime.

17:30 Dortmund v Stuttgart 2.20 Dortmund

• This is a derby style match for me 4th v 3rd makes my mind up in that regard. So I will research using AI here.It’s quicker and will offer you an angle on a match I would ordinarily dismiss from research.
• Champions League for Dortmund next week will play a part in possible distraction and possible necessary team changes.
• Borussia Dortmund vs Stuttgart: Bundesliga Match Preview
• The upcoming clash between Borussia Dortmund and Stuttgart at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK promises to be a pivotal encounter as both teams aim to secure a coveted Champions League spot for the next season. With only four points separating them, this match holds immense significance in their pursuit of European football.
• Current Standings and Recent Form:
• Stuttgart currently sits in third place with 57 points, while Borussia Dortmund follows closely in fourth with 53 points. Stuttgart comes into this match with an impressive unbeaten streak of nine games (W7, D2), including a thrilling 3-3 draw against Heidenheim in their last league outing. On the other hand, Dortmund secured a crucial 2-0 victory against Bayern München, marking their fourth consecutive win in the Bundesliga.
• Head-to-Head and Key Players:
• Stuttgart claimed victory in their last Bundesliga meeting, winning 2-1 with goals from Deniz Undav and Serhou Guirassy. Guirassy has been pivotal for Stuttgart, scoring 23 goals this season, while Dortmund relies on Donyell Malen and Niclas Füllkrug, both with 11 goals each.
• Home and Away Form:
• Dortmund has been strong at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK, securing 26 points from 13 Bundesliga home games. Stuttgart, however, boasts a record of eight away wins and five losses in league matches this season.
• Key Stats:
• Dortmund has won their last five matches in a row.
• Stuttgart has scored the opening goal in their last five away games.
• There has been a first-half goal scored in each of Dortmund’s last six home games.
• At least one first-half goal has been scored in 81% of Stuttgart’s Bundesliga games this season.
• Conclusion and Betting Angles:
• Both teams are in good form, with Stuttgart’s unbeaten streak and Dortmund’s recent victories adding to the excitement of this match. Considering Stuttgart’s impressive away form and Dortmund’s strong home record, a closely contested game with goals is expected.
• A possible outcome could be a 2-2 draw, with both teams showcasing their attacking prowess. Betting angles to consider include both teams to score and over 2.5 goals, given the goal-scoring records of both teams and the likelihood of an entertaining match.
• Overall, this clash between Borussia Dortmund and Stuttgart promises to be a thrilling encounter with significant implications for the Champions League race.

Italian Serie A

14:00 – AC Milan v Lecce 1.36 AC Milan

• Europa League football v Roma next week for AC Milan.
• 2nd v 13th, AC Milan must win and hope Inter Milan slip up spectacularly! Middle table comfort for Lecce? Not quite, only 4 points above the relegation zone
• Only 2 losses since 11th November for AC Milan.4 consecutive wins, Win, Draw , Win at home, 1-0, 1-1, 1-0. Will they struggle to score today?
• No defeat in 9 at home. They scored last 19 matches.
• 2-2 last head to head. A 0-1 loss and 3 1-0 wins at home v 15th and lower might sound alarm bells.
• Only 3 wins since 26th September for Lecce. All defeats away v the top 9.
• Angles? I would speculatively lay AC Milan if they lead 1-0 and if their odds are short enough to allow a low liability play. AC Milan have struggled with that 2nd goal at home, albeit not impacting on points gathered and v 15th and lower, they struggle for that 2nd goal as well. Just for this unique pre-Europe weekend would I consider this play. Lecce, as you can see, are pants.

17:00 – Roma v Lazio – 2.15 Roma

• Derby match so no research as these are unpredictable. That said, Daniele De Rossi has Roma ticking away nicely with 2 goals in the locker . You have seen recently the imponderable scorelines in derbies of late. Use inplay stats if you are to research.Roma have Europa League football as you read above.

19:45 – Empoli v Torino 2.25 Torino

• 18th v 9th, must win for Empoli in what is a very tight relegation race involving a number of sides. Torino are 6 points shy of a European place so plenty of motivation. As this is 2.25 the favourite ( I would have expected Torino’s odds to be shorter) I will AI research this match.
• Empoli vs Torino: Serie A Match Preview
• Empoli is set to host Torino in an intriguing Serie A clash at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena on Saturday. Both teams will be eager to secure vital points as they navigate through the challenges of the league campaign.
• Current Standings and Recent Form:
• Torino comes into this match in ninth place with 44 points, riding on a four-game unbeaten streak (W2, D2). Empoli, meanwhile, sits in 18th place with 25 points and is on a concerning four-match losing streak in Serie A.
• Head-to-Head and Key Players:
• In their last Serie A encounter, Torino emerged victorious with a 1-0 win, with Duván Zapata being their standout performer in attack with 10 goals this season. Empoli looks to players like Szymon Zurkowski, M’Baye Niang, and Francesco Caputo for inspiration, with Zurkowski leading their scoring charts.
• Home and Away Form:
• Empoli has struggled at home, with four draws, nine losses, and only two wins in 15 Serie A home matches. Torino, on the other hand, has a decent away record with four wins, five draws, and six losses in league away contests.
• Key Stats:
• Empoli has lost their last four matches in Serie A.
• Torino has kept five clean sheets in their last eight away matches against bottom-half teams.
• Empoli has conceded the first goal in their last three home games.
• Conclusion and Betting Angles:
• Both teams are in contrasting forms, with Torino enjoying an unbeaten run and Empoli struggling with consecutive defeats. Considering Torino’s defensive solidity and Empoli’s troubles in scoring goals, a possible outcome could be a 1-0 victory for Torino.
• Betting angles to consider include Torino to win and under 2.5 goals, given Torino’s defensive prowess and Empoli’s struggles in attack. Another angle could be Torino to score first, considering Empoli’s recent trend of conceding early goals.
• Overall, this match between Empoli and Torino promises to be a tactical battle, with Torino having the edge based on current form and defensive solidity.