Your quick hit of angles, match previews, and trading setupsby Clive Keeling

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Highlight 1: Scandinavian dominance with goals becoming a solid trend
Highlight 2: Spanish La Liga 2. One automatic promotion place for 3 teams to fight for

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>> MATCH RESEARCH & ANGLES

FINLAND – Veikkausliiga
14:00 – Gnistan v Ilves – 2.05 Ilves

HOME TEAM: Gnistan

• Unbeaten at home (W1 D2) but winless in last 2 overall
• Scored in all of their last 6 matches
• Scored first in 100% of home matches
• Led at halftime in 67% of home games
• 80% of their goals at home scored in the first half
• 75% of their goals conceded at home occurred in the second half
• Very poor at defending leads: conceded equalisers in 3 of 4 leads (25% lead defence rate)
• Averaging 3.13 goals per match overall

AWAY TEAM: Ilves

• Away form poor (W1 L3), scoring 2+ only once
• Scored in 7 of last 8 matches overall
• 75% of away goals scored in the second half
• 75% of away matches: conceded first
• Only 1 clean sheet away from home
• Strong at protecting leads (100% away lead defence rate)
• Average of 3.44 goals per match overall

GOAL FOCUS

• Gnistan score early, Ilves score late
• Gnistan concede heavily after halftime
• Ilves tend to improve second half, scoring 8 of their 11 away goals after the break
• Both teams involved in consistent over 1.5 and 2.5 goal matches
• Ilves vulnerable early; Gnistan unreliable late

BETTING ANGLES

• Back Gnistan First Half
• Lay Gnistan or Back Ilves Second Half
• Over 1.5 Goals (pre-match)
• Back late goal after 70 mins (in-play)

16:30 Jaro v Inter Turku – 1.57 Inter Turku

HOME TEAM: Jaro

• Loss, Loss, Draw at home
• failed to score in 2 of last 3
• 3/3 defeats v the top 4
• 5/7 goals conceded at home came 2nd half

AWAY TEAM : Inter Turku

• unbeaten
• 3 wins and a draw away
• only 0-0 at halftime first match

ANGLES : Expect 2 goals at least from Inter Turku and a possible goal before halftime. Jaro tend to concede 2nd half and should struggle to land a blow today

ITALY – Serie B (Play Offs)
19:30 Spezia v Cremonese –
•2-1 to Spezia from the first leg

Serie B Play-Off Final Preview: Spezia v Cremonese
Kick-off: Sunday, 17:30 (UK) | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco

Sunday’s Serie B Promotion Play-Off Final sees Spezia and Cremonese lock horns once more, with the tension set to peak in what could be a tightly contested decider. After a cagey 0-0 draw in the first leg at the Stadio Giovanni Zini, both sides will now battle for Serie A promotion in Liguria.

This will be the third meeting between the two sides this season, and all eyes will be on Spezia’s Francesco Pio Esposito, the standout forward who’s found the net 18 times this campaign—eight of them opening goals. However, despite his efforts, history favours Cremonese: Spezia haven’t beaten them in their last eight meetings, dating all the way back to February 2020.

Cremonese have proven resilient on the road, with a strong away record and an ability to perform under pressure. They’ve also outscored Spezia 12–5 over the course of this unbeaten run, and with both teams battling fatigue and nerves, fine margins could prove decisive.

Key Stats & Trends

• 44% of Spezia’s games this season saw more goals in the first half
• 50% of Cremonese’s away matches saw the first half as the higher scoring half
• Spezia have failed to win any of their last 8 matches vs Cremonese
• Francesco Pio Esposito has scored in 42% of all Serie B games and 45% of home matches for Spezia
• When Cremonese have won away, 89% of those matches featured Over 2.5 Goals
• Spezia (home): W6 D8 L5 (19 games)
• Cremonese (away): W10 D6 L5 (21 games)
• Recent Form:
  • Spezia: W3 D1 L2
  • Cremonese: W2 D2 L2

Betting Conclusions & Analysis

? Over 2.5 Goals – UNLIKELY
The last head-to-head ended 0-0, and with the promotion stakes high, we may again see a more conservative approach. While Cremonese’s wins on the road have usually been high scoring, the pattern in playoff finals and between these two suggests a lower-scoring game.

? Both Teams to Score – NO
Given the defensive discipline both teams showed in the previous leg and the fact that Spezia failed to score against Cremonese in their last two meetings, the BTTS angle is weak. Cremonese may well edge this, but it’s hard to see both teams scoring unless an early goal opens things up.

? Goal Before Halftime – POSSIBLE
With both clubs showing a higher first-half goal percentage (44% Spezia, 50% Cremonese away), there’s some statistical backing for a goal before the break—particularly if nerves don’t override early intent. However, approach with caution due to the playoff context.

Final Word

This tie has all the makings of a tactical battle, where defensive discipline may trump attacking flair. Spezia will lean on Esposito’s firepower to finally break their duck against Cremonese, but the visitors have proven time and again they know how to frustrate this opponent. Don’t expect a goalfest—expect a grind.

NETHERLANDS – Eredivisie Relegation Play-Offs
17:00 Willem II v Telstar – 1.79 Willem II

• 2-2 from the first leg saw Willem II take the lead only to be pegged back via an own goal and a 2nd.Willem II salvaged it in the 81st minute. A typical scoreline associated with a typically bullish league goals wise. Although there was only one goal in the first leg, I do think that we could see a breakthrough before halftime given the importance of the match and the knowledge both teams could score. Both teams have scored in the last 3 head to heads and both teams have scored 2 goals in each of the last 2 matches.

NORWAY – Eliteserien
13:30 Fredrikstad v Sarpsborg 08 – 2.00 Fredrikstad
HOME TEAM : Fredrikstad

• 3 losses only, lost last 2 matches
• 4/4 wins at home ended latest
• 7/9 goals scored at home first half

AWAY SIDE : Sarpsborg

• 2 defeats
• only 3 wins, 2 away
• not played 4th to 11th away

ANGLES: slight gap in form for the away side skews confidence.Fred look solid at home, only Rosenborg ( a reinvigoured Rosenborg) have beaten them. That home form has me thinking Fred could outscore Sarpsborg. Fred do score a lot first half

16:00 Brann v Kristiansund – 1.29 Brann

HOME TEAM : Brann

• an unexpectedly heavy defeat saw sleeping lion Molde wake up. Is this a sign of a revival, a la HJK in Finland?
• unbeaten season bookmarked by 2 3-0 defeats
• 3 wins and 2 draws at home
• only one home loss
• 8/10 goals scored at home came 2nd half

AWAY TEAM : Kristiansund

• Win, Draw , Win, Win away
• scored in their last 6 away
• not beaten top 4 yet in 2 away matches where both teams scored. Play 3rd today
• 67% of goals conceded away came 2nd half

ANGLES? Can we ignore that unexpected Brann defeat last match. Certainly adept at home, they play a Kristiansund whose away momentum may help, 3 wins and a draw. But Kristiansund struggle v the top 5 , yet to win despite both teams scoring away v the top 2. If we hold onto that form, Kristiansund are layable if leading. 2nd half goals strong in Kristiansund away matches.

16:00 Bryne v Sandefjord – 2.60 (Tie – Both Teams)

HOME TEAM : Bryne

• no draw
• 2 consecutive wins
• Loss, Win, Loss, Win at home
• busy first half – 1-2-2-2-1-3-1-4 goals before halftime
• 5 defeats and a 4-3 win v top 12
• 6/8 goals conceded at home 1st half

AWAY TEAM :SANDEFJORD

• no draw all wins bar 3
• 3 losses in 4 away were 3-1. 3 goals have been scored by one team on 5 occasions
• scored in every match

ANGLES: Sandefjord’s inability to conjure up a 2nd goal away could see them vulnerable if leading

• over 1.5 first half goals based on the home team

16:00 Haugesund v Bodo/Glimt – 1.25 Bodo/Glimt

HOME TEAM : Haugesund

• all defeats bar a draw
• never scored 2 goals in a match
• 5/11 goals conceded at home came last 15 minutes

AWAY TEAM : Bodo/Glimt

• only 2 defeats
• Win, Draw, Loss away
• scored every match
• only 1 0-0 at halftime

ANGLES: Ideal time to steady the ship for Bodo after 2 defeats in 3. They could unlock 2+ goals today. Haugesund yet to score 2 goals this season. Strong late goal conceders too so Bodo could strike late IF they need to

16:00 Rosenborg v KFUM Oslo – 1.36 Rosenborg

HOME TEAM :ROSENBORG

• only loss v Bodo/Glimt.
• Clearly marked improvement with 7 clean sheets
• 4 clean sheets in 5 at home

AWAY TEAM : KFUM Oslo

• 6 losses in 7 matches
• 3 losses in 4 away

ANGLES: 3 goals possibly conceded by KFUM at their worst today. Rosenborg could eye another clean sheet win today, and with clean sheet wins you have a small pool of scorelines to choose from from 1-0 to any unquoted

18:15 Molde v Viking – 2.20 Molde

HOME TEAM : Molde

• sign of a revival? 3-0 beating of Brann was a loser for us ( unless you traded neutrally or with insurance on a win to nil).
• Loss, Draw, Win, Loss at home
• only 1 0-0 at halftime
• not played top 5 at home

AWAY TEAM: Viking

• only lost first match
• failed to score only once. Only 2 clean sheets
• unbeaten in 10
• both teams scored in 4/5 away

ANGLES: this is a gauge for Molde to determine whether their win v Brann was an anomaly ( a bad day for Brann) or the revival start. Molde have not been the team we expect them to be . So that clouds my confidence in what ordinarily would be a solid vote for Viking, winning away, unbeaten in 10, but they do concede.

PORTUGAL – Liga Portugal 2 Relegation
17:00 Pacos Ferreira v Os Belenenses – 1.73 Pacos Ferreira
•Belenenses took a 2-0 lead with 2 2nd half goals.Pacos Ferreira scored their goal post red card ( squad member not on the pitch). Despite that first leg scoreline looking emphatic for Belenenses ( things changed after the red) It is interesting to see Pacos as Odds on favourite. Maybe that’s home advantage.

• Liga 2 v Liga 3. Are we going to continue to see dominance from the side from the better division ( at least in this leg)?

SPAIN – LaLiga2 – Last match of the season
15:15 Huesca v Eldense – 2.10 Huesca
•Dead Rubber.

17:30 Almeria v Tenerife – 1.18 Almeria
•Almeria are 6th and will guarantee 6th place and a Promotion Play-Off with a win. Tenerife are relegated

17:30 Dep. La Coruna v Elche – 1.44 Elche
•If Elche win, they could win the title, albeit they are 2 points behind league leaders Levante . Elche are not guaranteed a top 2 automatic promotion spot so the pressure mounts. Season over for Deportivo

17:30 FC Cartagena SAD v Mirandes – 1.22 Mirandes

•Mirandes are guaranteed a promotion play off place but could get automatically promoted with a win. SAD are sadly relegated.

17:30 Levante v Eibar – 1.53 Levante
•A draw may be good enough to land the title for Levante, a win guarantees it.They are guaranteed automatic promotion. Season Over for Eibar

17:30 R. Oviedo v Cadiz CF – 1.70 R. Oviedo
•Must win for Oviedo to position themselves for automatic promotion if Elche lose their match.

17:30 Racing Santander v Granada CF – 2.30 Granada CF
•Racing are 5th and must win in order to stave off…..Granada, who, with a win will take over Racing’s place. Granada simply must win.

20:00 Cordoba v Albacete – 1.75 Cordoba

• Dead Rubber.

SWEDEN – Allsvenskan
13:00 Brommapojkarna v Goteborg – 2.45 Goteborg
HOME TEAM : Bromma

• 5 consecutive defeats, 4 were 1-0
• only 1 clean sheet
• failed to score in all home matches v top 13
• 71% of goals conceded came 2nd half

AWAY TEAM : IFK

• Loss, Win, Win, Loss, Win away
• only 3 clean sheets
• 3/3 wins v 10th and lower away

ANGLES: IFK are winning away v 10th and lower and that augurs well today. Bromma are only just losing 1-0 and the majority of goals come 2nd half so it may be quiet first half

13:00 Halmstad v Djurgarden – 1.83 Djurgarden
HOME TEAM : Halmstad

• only 3 wins
• 3 consecutive defeats
• only 1 draw
• 2-2-2-0-2-2-3 goals total before halftime recently.
• 7/7 defeats v top 11 ( play 9th)
• 12/17 goals conceded at home came 2nd half

AWAY TEAM : Djurgarden

• 4 defeats. Only 1 win in 4
• Win, Loss, Win, Loss, Win away. Scored 2 goals only once.
• 3/3 1-0 wins v 12th and lower ( play 13th)

ANGLES: Djurgarden not got going yet. Scored 2 goals only once but may get away with it if replicating the 3 1-0 wins v 12th and lower. With Halmstad 100% losing v top 11, this presents an opportunity for possibly a tight Djurgarden win.

13:00 Malmo FF v Hacken – 1.53 Malmo FF
HOME TEAM : Malmo

• 3 defeats. Poor season relative to Champions status
• not played 4th to 11th at home

AWAY SIDE : HACKEN

• 4 defeats
• not played top 5 away but beat 6th and 9th

ANGLES? Malmo really should get back on track but Hacken, in playing 5th today, have beaten 6th away. Malmo are very under par this early season.

15:30 Mjallby v Varnamo – 1.48 Mjallby
HOME TEAM : Mjallby

• standout side this season
• only 1 defeat
• 10 consecutive without a 0-0 at halftime
• scored last 12 matches
• not played bottom 3 but beating teams above them
• 8/10 goals scored at home 1st half

AWAY TEAM : VARNAMO

• 3 draws in 4 ended all defeats elsewhere

ANGLES : Good luck with that Varnamo. Meeting the tastiest Swedish side at the moment, itching to score and score 2+ goals I’d think, possible breakthrough before halftime. Very surprised were this form side Mjallby to slip up

15:30 Sirius v AIK – 2.45 AIK

HOME TEAM : Sirius

• only 2 wins
• only 1 clean sheet
• scored last 8
• not played top 7 at home but 4-3 loss and 3-2 loss v 3rd and 4th ( play 2nd)

AWAY TEAM : AIK

• unbeaten, but 3 draws in 4
• 3 consecutive away draws

ANGLES:

• strong 2nd half goals AIK away matches. DRAWITIS for AIK might suggest laying any late draw to ‘remove the curse’. Sirius have been serious away from home v the top 4 in 4-3 and 3-2 scorelines. So…..what can they do WITH home advantage today? If you fancy it, over 5.5 and over 7.5 goals might yield a trade, or lay Sirius even if they lead by 2 or 3 goals? AIK will fancy themselves title contenders this season with Malmo slipping early

SWEDEN – Superettan
14:00 Helsingborg v Ostersund – 1.90 Helsingborg
HOME TEAM : Helsingborg

• only 3 wins, all to nil
• failed to score last 2
• only 3 over 2.5 goals
• 67%+ of goals came 1st half

AWAY TEAM : Ostersunds

• only 3 defeats
• only 2 clean sheets
• unbeaten home and away v 7th and lower ( play 12th)

ANGLES: Helsingborg are favourite and I would disagree. Ostersunds are unbeaten v 7th and lower and that is home and away yet the market has not accounted for this. First half goals are the norm for the home team who have a strong unders pattern. Ostersunds are likely to concede but will they remain unbeaten against another side 7th and lower?

14:00 Sundsvall v Falkenberg – 2.55 Falkenberg
HOME TEAM : Sundsvall

• only home win first match
• conceded last 4 at home
• 3/3 defeats at home v the top 10 ( play 6th)
• 83%+ of goals came 2nd half

AWAY TEAM : Falkenberg

• only 2 defeats came away
• 3 consecutive clean sheets
• failed to score twice
• 2-2-2-1-0-2-2 goals before halftime recently

ANGLES: the market is messy but I like Falkenberg, recent clean sheet momentum, only 2 defeats, solid v teams in their opponent’s half of the league. Over 1.5 First half goals a possible but stark contrast with the home side’s 2nd half goal habit. That’s to be remembered if a quiet first half

16:00 Oddevold v Landskrona – 2.45 Oddevold

HOME TEAM: Oddevold

• only 3 defeats
• 4 consecutive wins ended with defeat latest
• scored and conceded last 4 at home’
• 3/3 defeats v top 9 at home ( play 7th)

AWAY TEAM: Landskrona

• only 2 defeats are consecutive latest – worryingly 7 goals conceded
• have scored at least 2 goals on 7 occasions
• 2+ goals scored last 4 away

ANGLES: Both teams tend to do their winning v 8th and lower ( 4th v 7th today) so they are both set to struggle v teams in the top 8. With that in mind, I will sit this one out.

SWITZERLAND – Swiss Cup
13:00 Biel v Basel – 1.27 Basel
•Promotion League v Super League. 2-2-4-5-3-5-5-3-2-4 goals scored recently by Basel in all competitions does fit in with today’s 1.27 quote which hints at 3 goals at least.

• Biel did beat Young Boys 1-0 in the cup. Worth a mention! Surely Basel won’t be fawlty today? Look at the goals they have in the locker.