Review/Preview :https://youtu.be/SVQ-xVu2_ZA
Live :https://youtube.com/live/2fZcEKaQIJY?feature=share 13:30 start.
English Premier League
13:30 – Everton v Nottingham Forest – 1.95 Everton
- 16th v 17th, a win could be season defining between 2 sides suffering from points deficits. Everton have the game in hand and would dearly like to convert that to a win.They would break into the 30 point barrier, nearing safety. Relegation six pointer.
- Only 1 win for Everton since 23rd December came last match, 1-0 v Burnley. They’d take a 1-0 today. 0-1 win last head to head, Everton have been emphatically winning away v 14th and lower but at home? 1-1, 1-2 loss, 1-0 win
- 11 goals conceded at home last 1/2 hour.
- Only 2 wins in 2024 for Forest came at home.Both teams scored last 5 matches. Loss, Loss, Draw, Loss away.
- No win in 6 away, they have conceded last 11 away. 7 draws v 12th and lower home and away includes 2 defeats and a win v 20th at home
- Angles? Tough to see how this plays out given its importance. Everton struggle with that 2nd goal at home v 14th and lower. Both teams to score is a goer here. Everton are big conceders last 1/2 hour at home so any 1-0 lead 60th minute might be vulnerable. The winner could secure their survival. Lay any 2nd half 0-0 if not first half.
15:00 – Aston Villa v Bournemouth – 1.75 Aston Villa
- The slayer of dreams….at least where Arsenal are concerned. Villa doing the double over Arsenal may have killed their title hopes.
- 4th v 13th. Tottenham and Villa are squabbling for that 4th place and Villa are winning at the moment. 17 points above the relegation zone for Bournemouth.
- Only 2 losses for Villa since 17th February. Win, Loss, Win, Draw at home recently – 4-2, 0-4, 2-0, 3-3 recently at home.
- Villa are unbeaten at home v 8th and lower. , scoring 2+ goals regularly.
- 17/22 goals conceded at home came 2nd half. A massive 19 goals scored at home last 1/2 hour.
- Only 1 loss in 7 for Bournemouth came v Luton latest away. Bournemouth have scored last 11 away matches. All defeats away v the top 5 scoring and conceding and conceding 3 goals minimum.
- Angles? Villa home matches tend to be goal fests and with Bournemouth scoring and conceding v the top 5 away, we could see that today – over 2.5 goals of course if we expect a winner. I favour Aston Villa here, look at Bournemouth conceding 3 goals away v the top 5 and Aston Villa scoring 2+ goals v 8th and lower. Aston Villa motivation greater than Bournemouth’s.
15:00 -Crystal Palace v West Ham – 2.20 Crystal Palace
- London Derby. Palace under new manager shocked Liverpool. So they fear nobody. I will not research. Sit back and enjoy and if you play, play via solid inplay stats.
16:30 – Fulham v Liverpool – 1.50 Liverpool
- 12th v 3rd. Fulham are 17 points above the relegation zone and 18 points shy of a European place. Season winding down , we feel. Liverpool simply must win after this Danny Dyer run of draw v Man Utd and loss v Crystal Palace.
- 3-1-3-3-0 goals scored recently at home. Quite a lurch for Fulham.
- For you pattern seekers, Liverpool’s 3 defeats this season came…………………..v London opponents.
- Liverpool have scored in their last 15 away matches. Liverpool have lost one one match home and away v 6th and lower. Liverpool have scored a massive 15 goals in their last 15 minutes of away matches.
- Angles? Liverpool are wobbling season end and the only cup Old Sparkly Teeth could hold is the cup with his toothbrush and tooth whitening powder in . Fulham seem to lack that motivation here but that has not stopped them from scoring 3 goals in 3 of their last 5 home matches. If Liverpool’s forward line continue to fail to hit that cow’s arse with a banjo, they could be overwhelmed post-Europe? Must wins tend to win, though, right???? And can you trust that last 15 minute scoring record of Liverpool’s. It was very quiet v Crystal Palace!
Spanish La Liga Primera
13:00 – Getafe v Real Sociedad – 2.15 Real Sociedad
- 10th v 6th. Getafe are 11 points shy of a European place, the last one is held by Sociedad.
- Only 3 wins for Getafe in 2024 did come at home.
- Getafe have only 1 loss at home v the top 12. 4-3 loss last head to head.
- 12/18 goals scored at home came 1st half.
- 3 wins and a draw in 4 matches for Sociedad. 3 wins in 4 away matches.
- Only 1 loss away v 7th and lower.
- Angles? A tricky one given Getafe’s home form v top 10 is good and Sociedad’s single loss away v 7th and lower is good for them.
15:15 – Almeria v Villarreal – 2.25 Villareal
- 10th v 9th, Almeria have just one win. They are relegated. 14 points from safety.
- Villareal are 11 points away from a top 6 place.
- The run of 3 draws and a loss at home recently for Almeria saw them hard to beat. No win in 15 at home.
- No home win. 2-1 loss last head to head.
- Only 1 loss in 11 for Villareal came v Atletico Madrid. A really solid recent run of points accumulation. Will that continue today? 3 wins and 2 draws away recently.
- Both teams scored last 5 away, Villareal conceded last 11 away.
- Only 1 loss home and away v 13th and lower.
- Angles? The market gives both teams a chance but Villareal for me have 100% wins v the bottom 2, only 1 loss in 11 matches and meet an Almeria finding winning very tough ( not discounting the draw!)
17:30 – Alaves v Atletico Madrid – 2.00 Atletico Madrid
- 14th v 4th. Alaves are only 7 points above the relegation zone. Champions League top 4 spot is all that Atletico Madrid are aiming for, particularly with their failure to beat Dortmund.
- Only 1 win since 3rd February for Alaves. 4 losses in 5 matches.
- 8 consecutive under 2.5 goals
- All defeats home and away v the top 5 for Alaves.
- 2 losses, 2 wins recently for Atletico Madrid.
- Conceding last 6 and last 5 away. Only 1 loss home and away v 14th and lower. They did lose away to 12th and 13th and do meet 14th today.
- Angles? Another of those matches we see at this stage of the season. A relegation threatened side v a top 5 side and it’s the relegation threatened sides getting the edge over these apparent sure things.
- I would naturally favour Atletico Madrid, with a renewed momentum to stay in the Champions League places. Alaves should be a thorn but they have lost all home and aways v the top 5.
20:00 – Real Madrid v Barcelona – 1.70 Real Madrid
- Your good old fashioned derby style match. As I have amply shown, these are imponderables. Form lines don’t translate in derbies. Jude Bellingham will be the key to any Real Madrid success.
- Real Madrid have won 3 of the last 4 head to heads. Apart from that, watch and enjoy. We may not be able to trade!
German Bundesliga
14:30 – Werder Bremen v Stuttgart – 1.57 Stuttgart
- 12th v 3rd. Werder are only 4 points above the relegation zone. Stuttgart are 7 points above 5th place and are keen to keep their Champions League place.
- 5 losses and 2 draws for Werder Bremen recently. 3 losses and a draw at home recently.
- Werder conceded in their last 7 and last 6 at home. 2-0 loss last head to head.
- 9 wins and 2 draws last 11 matches. 5 consecutive away wins.
- 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.
- No draw in 14 away. 11 wins, a draw and a loss home and away v 12th and lower.
- 15/20 goals conceded away 2nd half
- Angles? I fancy Stuttgart here who have the bit between their teeth. A Champions League place is their solitary goal now Bayer are title winners. Werder still have unfinished business and may over perform but season long form sees them poor against the top 5. Lay any late draw.
16:30 – Dortmund v Bayer Leverkusen – 2.30 Dortmund
- This is a tricky one to research. Bayer Leverkusen are Champions so expect to see Xavi Alonso’s Grandmother up front today, and his wife as a left back. This is where teams with unbeaten record start to lose.
- Dortmund are equal on points with Leipzig in the fight for a top 4 Champions League place. They will not relent.
- Sit this one out research wise. Be wary of Early Champions. They will have psychologically switched off. We’ve seen it with early Champions season past. The defeats start after they have won the title.
18:30 – Freiburg v Mainz – 2.37 Freiburg
- 8th v 16th. Mainz are in the bottom 3 and will remain bottom 3 even if losing today. Freiburg are 13 points above relegation will no hope really of a European place. 3 consecutive away wins plays 3 consecutive home wins. Not much good as Freiburg are home and Mainz away.
- 2.37 the favourite tells me to leave the research alone. It also tells me that Mainz may not score that 2nd goal ( 2+ goals last 3 at home which is a rare feat, they went 15 matches without a 2nd goal!).
- No win in 5 at home Freiburg,
- Angles? I will leave this be. Mainz are the team with the need for points but are scoring 2 goals, and winning, at home only it seems. Can this momentum translate away. Freiburg’s season is fizzling out.
Italian Serie A
11:30 – Sassuolo v Lecce – 2.25 Sassuolo
- 19th v 13th, Sassuolo can still escape relegation. Lecce are 5 points above the relegation zone. This is a relegation six pointer.
- Only 3 wins since 2nd October for Sassuolo. 3 consecutive score draws signals fight, particularly a 3-3 v AC milan last match.
- Sassuolo have scored in their last 11 at home. 1-1 last head to head.
- Only 3 wins since 23rd December for Lecce. Lecce are unbeaten home and away v 16th and lower. 4 score draws and a 0-1 win away v 15th and lower.
- Angles? A relegation six pointer for me and as befits 2.25 the favourite, it’s tough to take pre-match sides. Both sides win infrequently. Lecce though are unbeaten home and away v 16th and lower but 3 consecutive score draws for Sassuolo suggests fight.
14:00 – Torino v Frosinone – 1.70 Torino
- 9th v 18th, Torino are 6 points shy of a European place. Frosinone are bottom 3 and a win could take them to that psychologically important 30 points.
- Only 4 defeats for Torino since 4th December. No defeat in 3 at home, 3 consecutive clean sheets. 6 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches at home.
- Torino are unbeaten at home v 8th and lower saw 9 clean sheets.
- 0-0 last head to head.
- 11/15 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
- Only 1 win since 2nd December for Frosinone. 3 consecutive draws.
- No win in 11 and in 16 away. Conceding last 15 away.
- Angles? You know by now at this stage of the season that discounting the likes of Frosinone is folly. But on seasonal form, Torino are very hard to beat and score against. Frosinone look layable if leading. Lay any 2nd half 0-0/ draw.
17:00 – Salernitana v Fiorentina – 1.60 Fiorentina
- 20th v 10th. Salernitana are relegated. 11 points shy of 2nd bottom, 13 points shy of safety. Ain’t gonna happen.
- Only 2 wins for Salernitana. They have conceded 2+ goals in 11 of their last 14 matches.
- No win in 14, they have conceded last 16 at home.
- 3-0 loss last head to head.
- 12/15 goals scored at home came 2nd half. 12 goals conceded at home last 15 mins of matches.
- Only 2 wins in 2024 for Fiorentina came at home.
- No win in 6 away. 1-1, 1-1, 1-0 away v 17th and lower.
- Angles? The onus is on Fiorentina here to get 3 points against a deflated Salernitana. A top 6 place is reasonable for Fiorentina so that is motivation. But the Viola are in poor recent form and scoring only 1 goal max in matches v 17th and lower away.
19:45 – Monza v Atalanta – 1.91 Atalanta
- 11th v 6th. Monza are 16 points above relegation. Atalanta are 8 points shy of Champions League
- No win in 3 Monza. 0-0 latest
- 11th v 6th, Monza have only 1 win home and away v the top 10
- 3-0 loss last head to head.
- Only 1 win in 7 for Atalanta. Only 1 away win v the top 10 and play 11th today.
- Angles? I cut it short there. Only 1 win v the top 10 plays only 1 away win v the top 10 ( playing 11th today). Questionable formlines both but for me Atalanta have an air of dependability based more on that recent win v Napoli. Motivation is higher for Atalanta.