Over 2.5 goals 27th September 2024

2 consecutive losers for over 2.5 first half goals for 1.06 and lower favourites now. Both cup matches.

Good strike rate for the research yesterday I thought.

Over 2.5 goals based on research ( too small a sample to be ultra confident but only one way of finding if the research is accurate is to test it!)

  • I do research each day at www.footballtradingprofits.com. A simple idea is to use the research to signal over 2.5 goals.

Valladolid v Mallorca

  • Possible Correct Score: Mallorca 2-1 Real Valladolid
  • Both Teams to Score: Yes (historically, these sides have been involved in high-scoring encounters, particularly at Valladolid’s home ground).
  • Late Goal for Mallorca: With Mallorca’s tendency to score late in recent away matches, a bet on a goal in the final 15 minutes could be worth considering.

Dortmund v Bochum

  • Dortmund’s dominance at home, coupled with Bochum’s poor away form, makes a 3-1 victory for Borussia Dortmund a likely outcome. Dortmund’s attacking strength, particularly with Adeyemi in fine form, should overpower Bochum’s fragile defense. Another strong betting angle could be Dortmund to score three goals, as they have done in each of their last three home matches against Bochum. Furthermore, both teams to score is a viable bet, as Dortmund have shown defensive frailties, and Bochum have managed to score in their last few matches.

Auxerre v Brest

  • Brest’s superior form and Auxerre’s defensive issues make Brest the likely winners. Brest’s strong head-to-head record against Auxerre, combined with their recent winning momentum, suggests that they could come away with a 2-1 victory.
  • For bettors, both teams to score looks like a solid option given Auxerre’s tendency to concede, while Brest to win is also a strong play given their unbeaten streak against Auxerre. Another angle to consider is over 2.5 goals, considering the defensive vulnerabilities of both sides.

PSG v Rennes

  • PSG’s superior form, combined with Rennes’ poor away record, makes the home side heavy favorites for this clash. Given PSG’s prolific attack and Rennes’ defensive vulnerabilities on the road, a 3-1 victory for PSG seems a likely outcome.
  • For bettors, PSG to win is a strong option, while both teams to score looks like a reasonable play, given Rennes have scored in each of their last four away losses. Additionally, with PSG scoring a league-high five goals after the 80th minute this season, a goal after the 80th minute could be a smart betting angle.

Milan v Lecce

  • Given Milan’s superior form, home advantage, and Lecce’s poor away record, it’s hard to see past a comfortable victory for the Rossoneri. With Lecce’s defensive issues and Milan’s attacking firepower, a 3-0 win for AC Milan looks like a strong possibility.
  • For bettors, AC Milan to win and Milan to keep a clean sheet are solid bets, especially considering Lecce’s inability to score consistently on the road. Additionally, over 2.5 goals is a reasonable play, as Milan’s last five home games in Serie A have averaged over five goals per match.


First Half Goals. Ideal for an overs trader if we can get a goal before halftime.

If we can get a goal scored before halftime, it is a strong indicator for over 2.5 goals.

  • First-Half Goals: At least one first-half goal has been scored in Brest’s last six games.

Leagues and competitions with a reputation for goals.

Certain leagues just exude over 2.5 goals. These 2 leagues below see the exuberence of youth ( mostly under 21’s) help the goals cause.

  • Dutch eerste divisie
  • England Premier league 2
  • English Professional Development League

Pre-match odds as an indicator.

  • The pre-match odds for a football match can infer a certain outcome. For me, any match with decimal odds of 1.3 or lower suggests 3 goals at least.
  • Dortmund v Bochum – 1.25 Dortmund
  • AC Milan v Lecce – 1.36 AC Milan
  • Sparta Prague v Sigma Olomouc – 1.20 Sparta
  • Estoril v Sporting Lisbon – 1.18 Sporting Lisbon

First half goals 2.5

  • No sub 1.1 favourites today

I hope this inspires you to try out some of your own ideas about niche markets.

We are in full swing at www.footballtradingprofits.com. Highlights recently include backing Bournemouth at odds of 100 ……and winning!! There’s a link for a free trial at www.footballtradingprofits.com . See you in the next eletter.

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