Here’s a glimpse into what we get upto in the background here at www.footballtradingprofits.com. The over 2.5 goals conundrum has puzzled me and members so I thought I would dip my toe in and see if there was any merit to my ideas. For those new to football, over 2.5 goals is another way of saying that we want 3 goals at least in the match.
Over 2.5 goals based on research ( too small a sample to be ultra confident but only one way of finding if the research is accurate is to test it!)
- I do research each day at www.footballtradingprofits.com. A simple idea is to use the research to signal over 2.5 goals.
Blackpool v Huddersfield
- Josh Koroma has scored in 50% of Huddersfield’s League One games this season.
- 3 or more goals have been scored in Huddersfield’s last 5 games.
- 3 or more goals have been scored in Blackpool’s last 6 away matches.
- Blackpool have scored in both halves in 50% of their League One matches this season.
- There has been exactly 3 goals in 4 of Blackpool’s 6 League One games.
Leyton Orient v Peterborough
- 3 or more goals have been scored in each of Leyton Orient’s last 4 home matches.
- Leyton Orient have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 8 home games.
- Peterborough United have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 12 games.
- Both teams have scored in Leyton Orient’s last 9 home games against Peterborough United.
Wigan v Stevenage
- Both Teams to Score: With both sides leaking goals, this bet looks promising.
- Over 2.5 Goals: Given the recent head-to-head result and both teams’ defensive frailties, this could be a high-scoring match.
Valencia v Osasuna
– Goals Over 2.5: Osasuna’s last four games and last seven away matches have seen three or more goals.
Real Madrid v Alaves
- Correct Score: 3-0 Real Madrid
Real Madrid to Win with a Clean Sheet: Real Madrid have kept clean sheets in their last three meetings with Alavés.
First Half Under 1.5 Goals: Real Madrid have scored before half-time in just one of their eight matches this season. - 1.17 odds suggests 3 goals minium. Possibility to delay entry given that Real Madrid first half stat.
Atalanta v Como
- Hot stat: Ahead of this round, Atalanta have scored the most Serie A goals (four) between the 31st minute and half-time. So…..can we delay ideally to the 25th minute and then back over 2.5 goals? 1 goal will see a potential profit.
- Como are newly promoted and could be vulnerable to a goals avalanche.
First Half Goals. Ideal for an overs trader if we can get a goal before halftime.
If we can get a goal scored before halftime, it is a strong indicator for over 2.5 goals.
- Blackpool have netted in the opening half of all of their last seven games.
- Como conceded in the ten minutes before half-time in all four away matches.
Leagues and competitions with a reputation for goals.
Certain leagues just exude over 2.5 goals. These 2 leagues below see the exuberence of youth ( mostly under 21’s) help the goals cause.
- English Premier League 2
- Professional Development league
Pre-match odds as an indicator.
- The pre-match odds for a football match can infer a certain outcome. For me, any match with decimal odds of 1.3 or lower suggests 3 goals at least.
- Real Madrid v Alaves – 1.20 Real Madrid
- LASK Linz – 1.17 odds away in the Austrian Cup
- Chelsea v Barrow – 1.05 Chelsea. Goals before halftime expected and a potential over 4.5 goals match IF Chelsea are ‘up for the cup’.
- Man City v Watford – 1.14 Man City
- Wycombe v Aston Villa – 1.29 Villa.
First half goals 2.5
- Chelsea v Barrow – 1.05 Chelsea. When you meet very very short priced favourites ( £100 stake wins £5) value can be found elsewhere. A similar match to this recently saw Celtic at 1.06 odds. The scoreline at halftime saw 3 goals scored.
I hope this inspires you to try out some of your own ideas about niche markets.
We are in full swing at www.footballtradingprofits.com. Highlights recently include backing Bournemouth at odds of 100 ……and winning!! There’s a link for a free trial at www.footballtradingprofits.com . See you in the next eletter.