Before I hand over to Clive just a reminder that this is the last chance to trade live with Clive before the International break and those who signed up on a trial last week were on two 100/1 winners in the live trading session.
When you join us for a trial you get access to Clive’s Trading Manual, his trading videos and of course you get to follow along with his live trades and place the same bets he does.
Here’s Clive…
Considering that there were only 2 matches to work with in last week’s e-letter, I thought the pointers I gave were excellent . The highlights:
? Remembering derbies can see form lines thrown out of the window ( Arsenal v Fulham)
? Aston Villa are full of goals….against the right opponent.
? Don’t be afraid to take on the market makers when you disagree with their prices. Brighton were far too short , weren’t they, at 1.53 odds given one of their wins was against newly promoted Luton
? Remembering newly promoted sides could be vulnerable.
? Taxi for Dyche? Sean Dyche’s tenure at Everton may not last long unless his team starts winning
Let’s take an in-depth look at this week’s Premier League matches.
Friday 1st September 2023
20:00 – Luton v West Ham – 1.75 West Ham
Luton are newly promoted and Boy are they feeling it!
A 4-1 loss to Brighton and 3-0 loss to Chelsea.
This, though, is their first match of the season at home. Will that change their luck?
2 1-0 defeats by halftime. If West Ham continue their impressive goal scoring, Luton may concede before halftime again.
Both teams to score has come in the 3 West Ham matches to date, and away from home it’s 1-1 and 1-3 v 1.53 favourites Brighton.
Michail Antonio has scored in the 2 consecutive 3-1 wins.
82, 90 and 81 minute goals from West Ham suggests they may have late bite to them.
An unknown factor here is this being newly promoted Luton’s first home match of the season. West Ham though will be buoyed by their 2 consecutive 3-1 wins and getting consistent goals out of Antonio.
If Luton score, they are unlikely to win 1-0. Both teams to score is a strong current trend for West Ham
Saturday 2nd September 2023
12:30 Sheffield United v Everton – 2.40 Everton
Another newly promoted side in Sheffield United and a possibly newly relegated side in Everton if they don’t improve under manager Sean Dyche
Both teams have lost their opening 3 matches.
Sheffield United have scored 0-1-1 goals and are on a run of 2 consecutive 2-1 defeats. They did impress late on against Man City with a late equaliser . Their 2 home matches have seen 0-1 defeat to Palace and 1-2 loss to City.
Everton are yet to score. 2 home 0-1 defeats and a 4-0 away defeat to an Aston Villa side we know have goals in them.
This is must win territory for Everton, more than Sheffield United. I keep pointing to Sean Dyche being a very poor fit for this Everton side. Trying to win 1-0 means keeping a clean sheet and scoring. They have achieved neither of these.
I expect a cagey match as befits 2.4 the favourite with any win likely to be by a single goal. Sheffield United are scoring aren’t they? A sneaky feeling though that Everton may click today against lowlier opposition and Dyche may embrace his first 0-1 win?
15:00 – Brentford v Bournemouth – 1.67 Brentford
3 consecutive London derbies for Brentford and they have weathered them well. At home, it’s 2 consecutive score draws which could be a sequence to end today if the market is accurate.
Mbeumo caught the eye from a goalscoring perspective for Brentford.
A draw and 2 defeats for Bournemouth v Liverpool and Tottenham. Honestly, they would not have expected to have got much out of those matches. Where do Brentford stand , as regards Liverpool and Tottenham?
This could be an opportunity for Brentford to get their first home win and end a score draw sequence. Bournemouth did score first against Liverpool .
Will Brentford continue their pattern for goals before halftime?
15:00 – Burnley v Tottenham – 1.83 Tottenham
Burnley’s 3rd consecutive home match. The first 2? 0-3 v Man City and 1-3 v Aston Villa. Tottenham are scoring 2 goals regularly and Burnley are likely to concede 2+ goals again today and have to wait for a first win. Another newly promoted team struggling.
Tottenham have really impressed under new manager. Their 6 goals have been scored by 6 different goalscorers and none of those have been Son! Not a match for a goalscorer bet!
I expect Tottenham to score 2 goals at least and win today. Burnley have been 0-2 down at halftime in their 2 home matches to date.
15:00 – Chelsea v Nottingham Forest – 1.40 Chelsea
The market is clear here. A Chelsea win.
After a tough set of matches for Chelsea, 1-1 v Liverpool ( could have won), 3-1 loss to West Ham ( pivoted on a red card and a late penalty).
Their first win came at home v newly promoted Luton.
Both teams to score is a habit for a competitive Nottingham Forest. 2-1 loss v Arsenal and 3-2 loss away v Man Utd away from home. They beat Sheffield United at home.
Awoniyi is scoring for Forest in each match. I called it last week. Can he continue his excellent record?
In these 2 teams’ matches so far, we have not seen a 0-0 at halftime. Both teams to score has come in, in 5/6 total matches.
Raheem Sterling scored 2 goals last match . Can he score against perceived weaker opponents this match?
So, for me, both teams to score is a possible with Chelsea likely to win in a one-goal-in-it match. Awoniyi and Sterling potential goalscorers?
15:00 – Manchester City v Fulham – 1.17 Manchester City
3/3 wins for Man City. Their possible Achilles Heel is an absence of Pep Guardiola on the sidelines as occurred last match.
Erling Haaland has scored 3 times this season but is yet to score at home. City have conceded 0-0-1 goals so far and could keep Fulham to one goal maximum.
Perhaps worryingly for Fulham, they have conceded 5 goals in their last 2 matches, but one of those matches was red card affected v Brentford. A 2-2 away draw v Arsenal was an eyecatcher.
1.17 odds suggests 3-0, 3-1, any other home score for Man City but they were similar odds v Sheffield United and failed to bring in those goalscoring expectations.
Will they deliver with home advantage? If Fulham score, and first, they are unlikely to win the match.
City should eye 2+ goals today. They failed to score before halftime last match.
17:30 – Brighton v Newcastle – 2.55 both teams
Odds that suggest an impossible to predict football match.
After 2 4-1 wins the market got carried away with Brighton and inserted them as 1.53 favourites against West Ham, wrongly as it turned out with a 1-3 loss to West Ham.
Both teams to score is a continuing habit as is at least one goal before halftime in Brighton matches.
Newcastle United have been exposed as ‘not quite there yet’ in consecutive defeats to Man City and Liverpool, the latter even more galling as Liverpool were red carded as Newcastle led 1-0.
In all 6 matches between these 2, we have not seen a 0-0 at halftime. Will that continue?
Other than that, as I hope you are learning, 2.55 the favourite suggests an imponderable. If the professional market makers cannot pick the winner, or won’t even attempt, take the hint!
Sunday 3rd September
14:00 – Crystal Palace v Wolves – 1.85 Crystal Palace
Is there a problem in attack for Palace? 0-1 win v Sheffield United,, 0-1 loss v 10 man Arsenal, 1-1 draw v Brentford.
They have yet to score that 2nd goal. This is also an end to 2 consecutive London derbies.
Palace are yet to score at home, albeit just one home match.
Wolves lost their first 2 matches against Man Utd and Brighton but won 0-1 v a very tight Everton. I told you to back 0-0 pre-match there. Traders would have profited. The goal came 87th minute
This match is tough to predict for me, as both teams are struggling to score goals. The market has inserted Palace as odds on favourite. They may gain respite from an end to those London Derbies they have been playing.
Note that there have been 2 0-0’s at halftime for both teams which have seen at least a goal 2nd half
14:00 – Liverpool v Aston Villa – 1.67 Liverpool
No such goal worries for these 2.
Both teams to score has come in all 3 Liverpool matches without them losing. 2 consecutive wins made all the more remarkable because Liverpool were down to 10 men in both matches and had to come from 1-0 down in both matches. This tells us a story about potential expectations today.
2-3-1 goals before halftime in Liverpool matches.
Aston Villa lost to Newcastle but have since walloped a poor Everton 4-0 at home and 1-3 win v Burnley. I said it last week. Against the right opponents, this Aston Villa team will fill their boots.
This is a post Europa Conference League match for Aston Villa but that should not impact upon performance.
For Liverpool, well, the strikers are the goal scorers. Diaz twice, Salah, Djota and now Nunes. So any goalscorer bets you might like to employ might be centred around their forward line.
Diaby has scored in 2 consecutive away matches for Aston Villa.
Aston Villa matches have seen 3-2-2 goals before halftime.
Might we see at least a goal ( value over 1.5 goals first half) in this match? Both teams to score without Liverpool losing? It was notable that Villa lost so heavily to Newcastle. That may be a template today – Villa may not be able to compete against potential top 5 teams.
Any other home score value?
It goes without saying that if Liverpool concede first, they are likely to respond and even win!
16:30 – Manchester United v Arsenal – 1.80 Arsenal
This is the epitome of what I describe as a ‘derby style’ match. We saw last week in these styles of matches that form lines tend not to be the contributing factor.
Arsenal have scored 2 goals in their 2 home matches, a 2-1 home win v Forest and 2-2 London derby v Fulham.
Arsenal have been awarded a penalty in their last 2 matches so you might want to check out the nominated Arsenal penalty taker as a goalscerer?
This is the first ‘big boy’ that Arsenal have played so far this season.
Notably, Man Utd lost 2-0 away to Arsenal’s near rivals Tottenham.
United won their 2 home matches v Wolves and Nottingham Forest, the latter a very good trading match.
As befits a ‘derby style’ match, I tend to bow out.