Thursday 31st October 2024 Football Trading Research

  • Cup football continues in the background. This week has been dominated by the Italian Seria A. Spanish Copa Del Rey is the premium cup competition today.
  • Review/Preview : https://youtu.be/YFCtq-ZNb3s?si=Hy1PiWWiiVht0Vxy
  • Live : from 17:30 or earlier if there is a cup play

Italian Serie A

17:30 – Genoa v Fiorentina – 1.83 Fiorentina

  • Following an 11th-place finish last season, Genoa supporters were hopeful for another stable mid-table run this time. However, their season so far has been marred by struggles, highlighted by an eight-match winless streak across all competitions (D2, L6), with their latest setback being a 3-0 defeat to Lazio. While it may be premature to start talking about relegation, Genoa’s performance trends suggest a challenging season ahead. The team currently holds a -13 goal difference, second only to Leece’s -16 at the bottom of the table. Defensive lapses have plagued them, and they’re one of just three Serie A teams without a clean sheet across five home matches.
    Fiorentina, on the other hand, enters this matchup in electrifying form. La Viola thrashed Roma 5-1 over the weekend, marking their sixth victory in seven games (D1). This win also saw Fiorentina net 5+ goals in back-to-back Serie A matches for the first time since 1997, having overpowered Lecce 6-0 the previous week. Their scoring spree extends to UEFA Conference League action, where they recently defeated St Gallen 4-2. This prolific run in front of goal makes Fiorentina one of Europe’s most in-form attacking sides, and they will look to extend their unbeaten Serie A streak against Genoa to eight matches (W3, D4). Additionally, a win would give Fiorentina three consecutive away victories over Genoa in Serie A for the first time in their history.
    Players to Watch
    For Genoa, young prospect Jeff Ekhator has been a rare bright spot. The 17-year-old has come off the bench in his last three appearances, contributing a goal and an assist, and he’ll likely play a part in any offensive resurgence for the hosts. Fiorentina’s Moise Kean, fresh from netting his first Serie A brace since November 2022 against Roma, could prove crucial in maintaining Fiorentina’s high-scoring trend, although he has yet to score against Genoa in his career.
    Match Prediction and Betting Angles
    Given Fiorentina’s recent dominance and offensive firepower, they are favorites to secure a victory in Genoa. With both teams showing tendencies for high-scoring matches recently, a 3-1 win for Fiorentina appears plausible, with Genoa’s defense likely unable to withstand La Viola’s relentless attack.
    Betting Angles:
    Over 2.5 Goals: Both teams have seen 3+ goals in each of their last four matches.
    Both Teams to Score: Fiorentina’s attack has been potent, while Genoa can pose a threat at home.
    First Half Goal: With Fiorentina’s attacking prowess, an early goal seems likely.
    Key Stats Recap:
    Winless Streak: Genoa has not won in their last eight matches.
    First Goal Conceded: Genoa has conceded first in their last four games.
    Red Cards and Penalties: Fiorentina has seen a red card in four of their last nine Serie A matches, and Genoa has had a penalty awarded in 56% of their games.
    Historic Trends: Genoa is winless in their last seven encounters with Fiorentina.
    Goals Galore: Three or more goals have been scored in each of the last four matches for both teams.

    Betting Summary Points:
    Over 2.5 Goals: Recent match history and form suggest high-scoring potential.
    Both Teams to Score: Likely given both teams’ recent performances.
    First Half Goal: Early goals expected due to Fiorentina’s attacking style.

19:45 – Como v Lazio – 2.45 Lazio

  • Como will look to halt their recent slide when they take on Lazio at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia. Cesc Fàbregas’ side enters the match off the back of a three-game winless run in Serie A (D1, L2), their most recent outing being a narrow 1-0 defeat to Torino. Despite these setbacks, Como has managed to maintain a solid home record this season, remaining unbeaten at their stadium (W1, D2). Both teams have scored in each of Como’s home fixtures, making defensive solidity a challenge for the hosts. As it stands, they are still searching for their first clean sheet of the season in Serie A.
    On the other side, Lazio comes into this match riding a wave of strong performances. They’ve won six of their last seven matches, including a commanding 3-0 victory over Genoa last weekend. This win extended their position in the Serie A top six as they aim for European qualification. Lazio’s defense has also been in excellent form, securing back-to-back clean sheets in their last two matches. Notably, Lazio has been effective at starting games strong, scoring early in four of their last six wins, which could spell trouble for Como, given their defensive vulnerabilities.
    Lazio’s record against newly promoted teams is impressive, with victories in seven of their last eight matches against Serie A newcomers. Furthermore, the clash will be an interesting reunion between Lazio’s in-form attacker Pedro and Como boss Fàbregas, who shared successful stints together at Barcelona and Chelsea.
    Players to Watch
    Como’s Patrick Cutrone has been instrumental this season, leading the team with four goals. While his efforts haven’t always resulted in victories, he remains a crucial component of Como’s attack. His teammate, Alieu Fadera, has also shown his scoring abilities, although his goals have rarely translated into wins.
    For Lazio, Boulaye Dia and Valentín Castellanos lead the frontline, with each scoring three times this season. Their attacking firepower has been a critical part of Lazio’s recent winning streak. Tijjani Noslin is another name to watch; his goal against Genoa helped Lazio score multiple times in seven of the last eight games in which he found the net.
    Match Prediction and Betting Angles
    Lazio’s consistent form, early scoring trend, and Como’s shaky defense suggest that the visitors are likely to come away with the victory. A 2-1 win for Lazio appears to be a strong possibility given Lazio’s attacking prowess and Como’s vulnerability in defense.
    Betting Angles:
    Over 2.5 Goals: With Como’s defensive struggles and Lazio’s scoring form, this is a reasonable expectation.
    Both Teams to Score: Como’s home games have consistently seen both teams scoring.
    First Half Goal: Lazio’s trend of early scoring supports the likelihood of at least one first-half goal.
    Key Stats Recap:
    Como’s Clean Sheet Woes: No clean sheets in their Serie A campaign so far.
    Both Teams to Score: Has occurred in 78% of Lazio’s games and each of Como’s home games this season.
    Goal Timing: At least one goal has been scored after the 75th minute in five of Como’s last six games.
    Disciplinary Trend: Four or more cards have been issued in Lazio’s last 11 Serie A matches.
    Head-to-Head: Lazio won the last encounter 3-0.
    Early Scoring: Lazio has opened the scoring within the first 25 minutes in four of their last six victories.

    Betting Summary Points:
    Over 2.5 Goals: Strong likelihood with both teams’ trends.
    Both Teams to Score: Consistent trend in Como’s home games and Lazio’s season overall.
    First Half Goal: Lazio’s tendency to score early boosts this possibility.

19:45 – Roma v Torino – 1.73 Roma

  • AS Roma’s season has taken a downward turn, and their recent 5-1 thrashing by Fiorentina highlighted their struggles. Captain Lorenzo Pellegrini called the performance “unacceptable,” as the Giallorossi find themselves languishing in the bottom half of the Serie A table. With only one win in their last three league outings (D1, L2), the pressure is mounting on new boss Ivan Juri?, who previously managed Torino. Juri? has had a mixed record against Torino, winning just one of his past seven encounters with them, and he must quickly reverse the team’s fortunes to avoid slipping closer to the relegation zone.
    Torino enters the match in better spirits after snapping a three-match losing streak with a narrow 1-0 victory over newly-promoted Como. Manager Paolo Vanoli praised his team’s character in that performance, particularly the solid display from their defense, anchored by Guillermo Maripán. However, Torino has struggled on the road, conceding eight goals in their last three away games (W1, L2). Historical trends are not in their favor, as they have managed only two victories in their last ten matches at the Stadio Olimpico against Roma, with seven losses.
    Players to Watch
    Roma’s Paulo Dybala is a standout player to watch, having scored a hat-trick in last season’s corresponding fixture. He boasts an impressive record against Torino, remaining unbeaten in his career meetings with them (W13, D8). For Torino, Nikola Vlaši? has been influential recently, contributing to a goal in each of their last two away matches, but he seeks his first career victory against Roma (D2, L4).
    Match Prediction and Betting Angles
    Given Roma’s pressing need for a response and their strong home record against Torino, they are favored to secure a victory. A 2-1 win for Roma seems likely, considering their historical dominance over Torino at home and the recent performance of their star players.
    Betting Angles:
    Over 2.5 Goals: Torino’s last three away matches have seen exactly five goals, hinting at potential high-scoring action.
    Both Teams to Score: With both teams’ attacking capabilities and Torino’s recent away form, this is a probable outcome.
    First Half Goal: Roma has often scored the first goal against Torino, suggesting a high chance of an early goal.
    Key Stats Recap:
    Roma’s Home Dominance: Roma has won 7 of their last 10 home games against Torino.
    High Scoring Trends: There have been exactly five goals in Torino’s last three away matches.
    Scoring Consistency: Torino has scored in both halves in their last three away games.
    Historical Head-to-Head: Roma has won 6 of the last 10 encounters with Torino.
    Disciplinary Trends: Four or more cards have been issued in each of the last 11 Serie A matches involving Torino.
    Penalty Statistics: A penalty has been awarded in 7 of the last 10 games between Roma and Torino, especially at Roma’s ground.

    Betting Summary Points:
    Over 2.5 Goals: Likely due to Torino’s recent scoring patterns.
    Both Teams to Score: Strong potential given recent performances.
    First Half Goal: Expected based on Roma’s historical scoring trends against Torino.

Swiss Super League

19:30 – Grasshoppers v Lugano – 2.05 Lugano

  • Grasshoppers are in dire need of a turnaround as they host Lugano at Stadion Letzigrund on Thursday, looking to snap a three-match losing streak in the Swiss Super League. Currently positioned in 11th place with just eight points from 11 matches, the Grasshoppers face a tough challenge against a resurgent Lugano side, which sits comfortably in third place with 21 points.
    Lugano comes into this match following a solid 2-0 victory against Young Boys, underscoring their current form. They have shown strength in their last few outings, going unbeaten in their last three Super League matches against GC Zürich (W2, D1). With a potent attack spearheaded by Ignacio Aliseda, Renato Steffen, and Kacper Przybylko, Lugano has proven capable of scoring goals, particularly against a Grasshoppers defense that has struggled lately.
    Recent Form and Head-to-Head
    In their previous clash, Lugano emerged victorious with a 2-1 win at Stadio di Cornaredo in July. The match featured goals from Kacper Przybylko and Uran Bislimi for Lugano, while Giotto Morandi scored from the spot for Grasshoppers. Historically, Grasshoppers have faced difficulties against Lugano, winning just one of their last five encounters.
    Despite Grasshoppers’ need for points, their form has been dismal; they have won just one of their last five league games and have struggled at home, winning only once in their last five home matches. Their inconsistency is evident, having conceded at least one goal from Lugano in their last ten home fixtures.
    Players to Watch
    For Lugano, Kacper Przybylko has been pivotal, contributing significantly to their attacking prowess this season. He has scored three goals thus far. Giotto Morandi remains a key figure for Grasshoppers, currently leading the team with three goals. His performance will be crucial if Grasshoppers hope to find the back of the net against a solid Lugano defense.
    Match Prediction and Betting Angles
    Given Lugano’s stronger form and superior position in the league, they are favored to secure a victory against Grasshoppers. A 2-1 win for Lugano seems likely, as their recent performances suggest they can break down Grasshoppers’ defense while also being susceptible to conceding goals.
    Betting Angles:
    Over 2.5 Goals: Grasshoppers have had three or more goals in each of their last five home games, indicating potential for another high-scoring affair.
    Both Teams to Score: With both teams showing vulnerabilities defensively and the historical trend of scoring between these sides, this is a probable outcome.
    First Half Goal: There have been first-half goals in Lugano’s last five games, suggesting a strong possibility for an early breakthrough.
    Key Stats Recap:
    Grasshoppers’ Struggles: They have only one win in their last five Super League games.
    Lugano’s Solid Form: Lugano is unbeaten in their last three matches against GC Zürich (W2, D1).
    Historical Dominance: Lugano has won four of the last five encounters against Grasshoppers.
    Home Defensive Issues: Grasshoppers have conceded at least one goal from Lugano in their last ten home games.
    High Scoring Trends: Three or more goals have been scored in Grasshoppers’ last five home matches.
    Lugano’s Away Form: They are looking to end a three-match winless streak away from home (W0, D2, L1).

    Betting Summary Points:
    Over 2.5 Goals: Likely based on Grasshoppers’ recent scoring record.
    Both Teams to Score: Strong potential given historical performance and current form.
    First Half Goal: Expected due to recent trends in Lugano’s matches.

19:30 – Servette v Luzern – 1.80 Servette

  • On Thursday, Servette hosts Luzern at Stade de Genève in a matchup between two sides experiencing contrasting fortunes. Servette is riding high on a six-match unbeaten streak in the Swiss Super League, while Luzern is struggling, winless in their last three outings.
    Current Form and Standings
    Servette sits atop the Super League table with 23 points from 11 matches, two points clear of Zürich. Their recent form has been impressive, including a 3-1 victory against Zürich in their last match, marking their fourth win in six games (W4, D2). Key to Servette’s success has been Dereck Kutesa, who has scored in both of the last two matches and is the club’s top scorer with eight goals this season. Remarkably, Kutesa has netted the opening goal in five of those matches.
    In contrast, Luzern, currently in fifth place with 18 points, has struggled recently, suffering a 3-2 defeat to Yverdon Sport in their last game. Their inability to secure a win in three straight matches (D1, L2) has raised concerns, as they aim to find their footing against a formidable Servette side.
    Head-to-Head and Recent Meetings
    In their last encounter, Servette claimed a 2-1 victory over Luzern in July, with Kutesa opening the scoring early in the match. Historically, Servette has been dominant over Luzern, remaining unbeaten in their last three league meetings (W2, D1), outscoring them 8-5 in that stretch.
    Key Players to Watch
    Dereck Kutesa (Servette): With a staggering 64% scoring rate in league matches this season, Kutesa is crucial to Servette’s attack. His ability to score early sets the tone for their games, and they have won their last three matches when he finds the net.
    Thibault Klidje and Lars Villiger (Luzern): Both players have four goals this season and are vital to Luzern’s attacking efforts as they seek to break through Servette’s defense.
    Match Prediction and Betting Angles
    Given Servette’s formidable home record—four wins out of five matches—and Luzern’s recent struggles, Servette is favored to secure another victory. A 2-1 win for Servette seems plausible, considering both teams’ recent scoring trends.
    Betting Angles:
    Over 2.5 Goals: Servette’s matches frequently see multiple goals, and Luzern’s defense has been vulnerable, making this a likely outcome.
    Both Teams to Score: With Luzern’s need for points and Servette’s attacking prowess, both teams finding the net is a strong possibility.
    First Half Goal: Given that Servette has scored in the first half in all of their last seven home games, this trend is expected to continue.
    Key Stats Recap:
    Servette’s Home Goals: There has been a first-half goal in each of Servette’s last seven home games.
    Scoring Consistency: Servette has scored before half-time in 73% of their league matches this season.
    Kutesa’s Impact: Servette has won their last three games when Kutesa has scored.
    Luzern’s Defensive Woes: They have conceded at least one goal from Servette in the last seven away games.
    Card Trends: There have been four or more cards in each of the last eight Super League games involving Luzern.

    Betting Summary Points:
    Over 2.5 Goals: Likely based on scoring patterns from both teams.
    Both Teams to Score: Strong potential due to both teams’ attacking abilities.
    First Half Goal: Expected from Servette given their recent form.


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