Lessons to Learn from ‘Shit Emoji-Gate’.
I would like to pass on some lessons from this week to you. It all began with Benfica playing away v Famalicao. This is a Benfica side whose key players are being sold to big guns such as Paris St Germain.
It was the opening day of the season.
Benfica conceded the first goal which is not what past history suggested would happen.
So, I dutifully passed this on to members.
We got involved in the usual fashion, hoping for a Benfica equaliser but happy to take a break even at 1-0.
It was all going swimmingly until the 90th minute, where Famalicao had the temerity to score a 2nd goal and leave us nursing a loss.
Cue unexpected abuse from a handful of members whose intellect makes David Beckham look like Elon Musk.
Here are some lessons to pass on to you.
1)A 0-2 scoreline can be insured against by using what I call a ‘Jon H’ Trade. I won’t divulge it here as some non members are reading this eletter. Members of www.footballtradingprofits.com will see instances of this hedging method when opportunities arise in Live Chat Webinars
2)Be pro-active. Don’t just sit there and suffer in silence. The beauty of my ‘insurance trade’ is that you can cash out at any time while the scoreline stays the same for an effective break -even. This is clearly written and spoken about in the course. Again, attend a live chat webinar and I will, doubtless, have an opportunity to show you my ‘Gareth’ strategy i.e. Bale out if expectations are not being met.
3)If you are going to lose your shit ( emoji) after one losing trade, then football trading is not for you. Selective memory loss does not help either. A bountiful profit the day before suddenly forgotten about by those Beckham-esque intellectual powerhouses who thought abusing me would be productive.
4)A long- term focus is necessary. Football is fluid. More opportunities will present themselves. Indeed, the next day, we extracted £120 out of Derby and Rotherham matches in the EFL Cup. Did I get any thanks from those Musk -like Brainiacs? Of course not.
5)Matches on the opening day of the season can be problematic, particularly at ( now) selling clubs like Benfica. Where do you think Liverpool got Darwin Nunez from? We can see strange results at the start of a new season. Belgium’s 2 opening matches of the season ended 0-0. The Scottish Premier League’s opening 2 matches of the season ended…0-0!The Spanish Primiera Liga’s first 2 matches of the season ended 1-1!!
6)To that end, a look at transfers in and out for any big team is necessary at the start of the season. Admittedly, I took Benfica at face value when I should have factored in the selling of key striker Goncalves Ramos to PSG as a replacement for Kyllian Mbappe.
Free Premier League Research.
Each week, I will be providing free Premier League Research to non-members of www.footballtradingprofits.com. Members will receive 7 day a week research, 5 day a week Telegram sessions, 2 days a week Live Chat Webinars !. Now is a great time to test drive www.footballtradingprofits.com . You might catch me on a £120 profit day . But you’ll never know if you don’t give it a go.
Over 2.5 goals….
This is a trading medium I would like to have a go at and I’m opening the doors for you guys and girls. Do you have any ideas how we can research and profit from over 2.5 goals trading?
Here are some of my ideas :
1)Take your cues from the match odds market. Long term members know that the shorter the price of the favourite, the more likely there is to be goals and a comfortable win. 1.3 odds favourite or lower normally hint at 3-0, 3-1 or any other home/away scoreline. Use my 20 minute rule to gain an entry point?
2)Specific leagues have high goals per game averages. Here’s a list from memory :
A)Dutch Eerste Divisie
B)English Professional Development League
C)English Premier League 2
3) https://www.soccerstats.com/leagues.asp will show you the over 2.5 goals averages as seasons progress.
4)https://football-observatory.com/IMG/sites/b5wp/2016/183/en/ offers some suggestions.
5) Specific teams. Some teams are quite simply able to buy the talent to bring the goals. Other teams dominate their specific league ( Celtic/Rangers in Scotland, PSG in France, Bayern Munich and Leverkusen in Germany, Inter Milan in Italy, and so on).
6) Last Year’s Trends by League. https://www.soccerstats.com/trends.asp?league=england_2024 , for example, is the stats for the English Premier League last season. Overall, Tottenham had 79% over 2.5 goals. Surely that’s something to go to war with? At home, Tottenham and Sheffield United had 84% over 2.5 goals. Away from home, West Ham stood out with 84% over 2.5 goals. Can we transpose these onto this season ?( notwithstanding the likes of West Ham have a new manager).
7)Newly promoted and newly relegated sides. Did you know that 2 of the newly promoted sides in the Premier league last season finished in the top 5 for over 2.5 goals last season. Coincidence? Or are they simply floundering in the majority of matches because their squad simply lacks the experience of a Premier League team?
8)Both Teams to Score ( BTTS) : If you can find teams with solid both teams to score stats, then that’s 2 of the 3 goals you seek already!! Last year saw Luton town have 31 of 38 matches with both teams scoring. That was the only team breaking 30 games with BTTS last season and yes, another newly promoted team.
9)Clean Sheets. You want teams bad at keeping clean sheets. And note, the 3 newly promoted teams last season kept 1 – 2- 2- clean sheets in 38 matches . Are we noticing a pattern with these newly promoted teams, at least in the Premier League?
10)Good ‘offence’. Sorry to get all American on you, but a look at last year’s soccerball teams who were sure swell at scoring could lead you down the over 2.5 goals path this season. It’s the usual suspects in the Premier League : Man City ( 96 goals) ; Arsenal ( 91 goals) ; Liverpool ( 86 goals) ; Newcastle ( 85 goals). These were the top 4 last season by some wide margin.
11)Goals by Half. For me, a key to over 2.5 goals trading success is to try and secure at least one goal before halftime. This hints, from the market’s perspective, that over 2.5 goals is more likely to come in. You may yield a cash out if you can secure one early goal, or ideally 2 goals before halftime. www.soccerstats.com offers a Goals by Half set of stats for last season where Nottingham Forest and Chelsea were best 1st half goalscorers last season.
That’s enough to get the old Grey Matter working. I will be looking at the major European Leagues and the patterns above and will make you aware of teams and leagues with goals patterns in upcoming Live Chat webinars. It will be an interesting exercise.
Here’s where I will end this week’s War and Peace -length eletter. Welcome to the New Season and I look forward to welcome new members and triallists to www.footballtradingprofits.com in what is my 11th year of Football Trading! Have a Green Weekend!