Hello, it’s another busy day on the Coupon and one thing to mention at the off.
It’s the Curse of the Champions League.
It as already taken PSG and Real Madrid and is coming for the English Premier league Contenders , the likes of Arsenal, Aston Villa, Man Utd, Liverpool, Man City et al.
If teams are to under perform it is pre Champions League. Heck, even the Special One is not immune.
Research at this early stage of the season is difficult. Here’s what catches my eye today:
12:30 Newcastle v Bournemouth – 2.20 / 3.88 / 3.29
- Newcastle should have 2/2 wins, were it not for conceding a late penalty at home v Liverpool. 2 goals in each of their 2 matches , new manager. Elanga has scored in both matches.
- both teams scored in Bournemouth’s defeat to Man City , and 1=1 draw v Everton. They led v Man City.
- Angles? Too small a sample. New manager Newcastle but a subtle hint with that Liverpool performance that they should be favoured at home, particularly when the market agrees with the same assessment. An inconclusive market, key pattern is whether we can rely on Newcastle’s 2 goal habit as Bournemouth score and concede.
15:00 Brentford v Sunderland – 1.68 / 4.17 / 5.59
- Win Draw for Brentford , goal at least before halftime.
- Sunderland have been a tradeable side, equaliser v Ipswich , albeit losing eventually, and 1=0 win v Fulham was a lay the draw match
- Sunderland are yet to score that 2nd goal . Note that.
- Schade might be the difference, highly skilled for the Bees and a great finisher.
15:00 Brighton v Leeds – 1.96 / 3.72 / 4.22
- a 4=0 win v Aston Villa was a strange one for me for the Seagulls. 4=3 v Chelsea tells you more about Chelsea. They are Keeganesque. 7 goals in 2 matches must be respected and of course opens the door for a goal at least before halftime. Leeds are tight, 0=1 away win and 1=1 v Brentford, a deserved equaliser after deserving to concede.
- Leeds may be limited in what they can achieve if they cannot push on to that 2nd goal , particularly if 3.5 goal a game Seagulls turn up again and steal their icecream from out of their hand!
- Angles? Goal before halftime. Leeds doubt regarding a 2nd goal. Brighton check to see that attack line blossoming.
15:00 Fulham v Crystal Palace – 2.39 / 3.51 / 3.21
- this is a London derby so you really should only trade this match reactively , if at all.
- Both sides are 2/2 in defeats, 2=3 in Fulham’s last London derby.
- Angles? Unappealing pre match angles. Poor form, London Derby.
15:00 Manchester City v Coventry – 1.19 / 8.35 / 17.00
- Man City have the air of a trader’s friend about them. A come from behind win v Bournemouth saw a Haaland hatrick win v Crystal Palace. Coventry have yet to score and I expect Man City to replicate Arsenal’s comfortable 3=0 win v Coventry. Fat Frank knows that Coventry’s season is likely to be defined by results v bottom half sides and not top 10 Champions League sides. As ever with newly promoted sides, they may just surprise but Coventry’s defence v Arsenal was ‘Championship’ and just lacking , City likely to punish.
- 1.19 odds suggests at least a goal before halftime and a 3=0, 3=1, any other home score.
- Man City are away to Porto in the Champions League. If ever Fat Frank were to sniff an upset it is pre Champions League. But strength in depth is hardly a concern for Man City is it?
15:00 Nottingham v Tottenham – 2.57 / 3.52 / 2.92
- the market says ‘ run away, run away!’. Loss Draw Forest to date. Tottenham have conceded 5 goals and are yet to score. Richarlison is off to Turkey.
- Angles? No pre match angles.
17:30 Hull v Aston Villa – 4.42 / 3.88 / 1.88
- Aston Villa are away to Club Brugge in the Champions League on Tuesday. An away match in the Premier League is not ideal.
- 2/2 wins to nil for Hull. They’ll be delighted and might surprise this ‘Curse of the Champions League’ Villa side with 2 consecutive defeats and failing to score. Very reminiscent of last season’s start.
- Angles? Fascinating match. Villa are far better than this, and Hull weren’t expected to be better than they are! Pre Champions League concerns me for Villa as is an inability score. They do have an away match scoring reputation . Early season Champions League seems to be Villa’s undoing.
Let’s have a look at today’s matches.