Today I will be looking at tracking some Bet and Go ideas using the live Betfair markets and Fairbot’s Simulation Mode.
Idea 1
List all matches where over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.60 decimal odds or lower.
These have tended to be good lay the draw candidates with nil nil cover. That old chestnut. Does it have legs?
Yesterday’s 7 candidates all produced a profitable trade bar Bolton which ended nil nil.
Concerns. The draw odds are higher so a bigger liability than usual is required. A profit though can be assured if the favourite scores first.
Today’s Candidates.
| Barcelona | 1.38 | 4.75 |
| Tottenham | 1.62 | 3.9 |
| Liverpool | 1.33 | 7 |
| Bayern | 1.34 | 5.25 |
| Frosinone | 1.62 | 4.2 |
The first column shows the over 2.5 goals odds. The 2nd column shows the draw odds from www.soccer24.com . The idea I suppose is that 3 goals scored cannot end up in a draw!! There is a strong 2nd half scoring record in these matches which might open these candidates up to a lay the draw 2nd half at better odds IF we are lucky enough to find a draw at halftime?
Idea 2
The Team with the lowest draw odds of the day at www.soccer24.com , in the main leagues.
These candidates tend to see frequent nil nil’s at halftime , so either backing nil nil in the halftime score market , or if illiquid, laying over over 0.5 goals in the first half goals market are the candidates.
Staking Plan. Fibonacci so you would have to try and back under 0.5 goals rather than lay. The usual Fibonacci sequence is
1 , 1 , 2 , 3 , 5 , 8 , 13 , 21 , 34
34 is usually the stop loss . After every successful play, we go back to step 1. After every loss, we move forward in the sequence.
Risks? Anomalous results can produce a cumulative loss which can be very hard to take.
16th March Candidate. Shelbourne nil nil at halftime
17th March Candidate Spezia ended nil nil at halftime
We can’t be this sharp all of the time but the accumulated results I have add some confidence.
Idea 3
In the main leagues, shortlist the one match whose home odds are near to 2.00 decimal.
Back both Home/Home and Away/Away in the Halftime/Fulltime market. There has been a frequent run of these 2 results. The returns all seem to be, combined, over evens .
Yesterday’s candidates were Watford/Burton/Tranmere/Chelsea and 3/4 of those produced a return.
Today’s candidates are Tottenham, Pescara and Alanyaspor.
These are only ideas. There may be practical issues when applied to the live markets. The key to success with these bet and gos will be the correct choice of staking plan.
I’ll update you tomorrow to see if there is any promise to these.