ENGLAND: Premier League
- It’s getting competitive. I am in form for members of www.footballtradingprofits.com. More green today to add to yesterday’s.
- My approach to the run in? https://youtu.be/ee6MwMhPkz4
12:30 – Everton v Arsenal – 1.70 Arsenal
- Everton vs Arsenal Match Preview – Premier League Showdown at Goodison Park
As the Premier League season enters its defining weeks, Everton and Arsenal lock horns at Goodison Park in a clash that carries weight for both ends of the table. The Toffees are looking to halt a winless run and end the season positively, while the Gunners, chasing a fading title dream, aim to solidify their Champions League qualification.
? Everton: Fighting for Finish, Not Survival
A narrow 1-0 defeat at Anfield midweek ended Everton’s nine-game unbeaten league run, but the performance against Liverpool showed the Toffees still have plenty of fight. That loss was their first in ten matches, although it’s worth noting they haven’t won any of their last five league games (D4, L1).
Sean Dyche’s men have been resolute at home, drawing their last three league games at Goodison Park and maintaining an unbeaten home run that dates back to mid-January. However, converting draws into wins has been the issue.
Interestingly, Everton have punched above their weight against the division’s top teams. They’ve only lost twice in seven league encounters against current top-six sides this season, suggesting they’re more than capable of rising to the occasion.
Iliman Ndiaye’s return from injury is a big boost. Despite missing time, he’s still joint-top scorer with six goals – and will be a key outlet in transition against a dominant Arsenal side.
? Arsenal: Playing Catch-Up
Arsenal’s title hopes were dealt a blow by Liverpool’s relentless form, with the Gunners trailing by 12 points. A recent 2-1 home win over Fulham and strong showings against Chelsea have helped them stay in the hunt, but the gap is looking increasingly difficult to close.
Mikel Arteta’s men are the best away team in the league in 2024, collecting more away points than any other side. Yet, their record on Merseyside tells a different story, with only three wins in their last 26 away games in the city (vs Liverpool and Everton combined).
Still, Arsenal have been excellent on the road this season (W7, D6, L2) and are unbeaten in their last 10 Premier League away fixtures. Martin Ødegaard could be a key man, having contributed to five goals in seven appearances against Everton.
? Key Stats
Everton have drawn their last 3 home games
Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 10 away matches
Everton have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 7 matches
Arsenal have scored in 12 of 15 away matches this season
Everton have scored 62% of their goals in the first half
Arsenal have earned more away points than any other team in 2024
Everton have scored four 90th-minute goals at home this season – their most since 2016/17
The last 4 Everton matches have all featured fewer than 3 goals
? Match Outlook & Betting Insights
? Will Both Teams Score (BTTS)? – NO
Everton’s attacking threat has waned of late, especially with limited goalscoring outlets beyond Ndiaye and Beto. They’ve managed just one goal in their last two matches and face a side that has kept eight clean sheets in their last 14 games. Arsenal’s backline, anchored by Saliba and Gabriel, should be able to contain a goal-shy Everton side.
Prediction: NO BTTS
? Will There Be Over 2.5 Goals? – NO
Everton’s recent games have been low scoring, with each of their last four seeing under 2.5 goals. Arsenal may control possession, but the Toffees’ deep block and disciplined shape at Goodison will restrict clear-cut chances. Historically, this fixture doesn’t produce goal-fests either – only one of the last six H2Hs at this ground has gone over 2.5.
Prediction: UNDER 2.5 goals
? Will There Be a First-Half Goal? – YES
Arsenal have seen at least one first-half goal in their last five league games, and Everton’s tendency to score early (62% of their goals have come in the first half) points toward another early breakthrough. Arsenal’s energetic start is often their best spell, and they’ll look to unsettle Everton early.
Prediction: YES to a First-Half Goal
? Final Score Prediction: Everton 0-2 Arsenal
While Everton have proven to be a tricky opponent for top-six sides, Arsenal’s superior quality and relentless away form give them the edge here. Expect the Gunners to strike early and manage the game effectively, while the Toffees struggle to break through a well-drilled visiting defense.
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15:00 – Crystal Palace v Brighton – 2.50 Crystal Palace
- Crystal Palace vs Brighton & Hove Albion – Match Preview
Selhurst Park is set to host yet another feisty edition of the M23 derby as Crystal Palace and Brighton & Hove Albion face off in a clash brimming with history, tension, and European implications. While Palace’s ambitions remain focused on securing a top-half finish, Brighton are still in the hunt for European football and cannot afford to slip up.
? Palace Seeking Progress Amidst Familiar Patterns
Oliver Glasner’s reign at Crystal Palace has injected new energy into the side, but their recent 1-1 draw with Southampton—rescued via a stoppage-time equaliser—was a missed opportunity that halted a five-game winning streak across all competitions. Still, avoiding defeat under pressure might provide a psychological boost ahead of this grudge match.
There’s a quirky historical subplot here too: the last five league meetings between these two sides at Selhurst Park have all finished 1-1, a record no other English top-flight fixture can claim. Glasner’s men will be eager to rewrite that script and complete their first top-flight double over Brighton after a commanding 3-1 away win in December.
?? Brighton’s Capital Concerns
Fabian Hürzeler’s Brighton return to action following back-to-back disappointments: FA Cup penalty shootout heartbreak against Nottingham Forest and a heavy 3-0 league defeat to Aston Villa. The Seagulls’ top-four dreams have been dented, but their away form in 2025 remains strong (W5, D1, L1).
That said, London continues to be their bogey ground. Brighton are winless in 11 consecutive Premier League matches in the capital (D5, L6), their worst such run since the 1930s. However, they boast an impressive record away against teams in the bottom half this season (W4, D2), giving Hürzeler reason to remain optimistic.
? Players to Watch
Ismaïla Sarr (Crystal Palace): In superb form with 3 goals in his last two home league appearances, and had a hand in all three goals in the reverse fixture.
Jean-Philippe Mateta (Crystal Palace): 12 league goals, 5 of which were the opening goals of matches—loves to strike early.
Carlos Baleba (Brighton): A surprising scoring threat in London, having already netted twice in the capital this season.
João Pedro & Danny Welbeck (Brighton): Joint attacking threats with 8 and 7 league goals, respectively.
? Key Stats
Last 5 Selhurst Park meetings: All ended 1-1.
Brighton away form in 2025: W5, D1, L1.
Brighton in London (last 11 PL games): D5, L6 – no wins.
Palace at home in PL this season: W4, D5, L6.
Palace scoring streak: Scored in 11 straight matches.
Palace clean sheets in Saturday 3pm PL games: 3 in a row.
Brighton away goals: Scored in 14 of 15 matches.
Crystal Palace goals after 75th min: 32% of total.
Both teams have scored in Palace’s last 7 home games vs Brighton.
Penalty awarded in 5 of the last 10 H2Hs at Selhurst Park.
? Betting Conclusions
?? Over 2.5 Goals: YES
Given Brighton’s average of over 2.5 total goals in 70% of their matches, Palace’s strong scoring run, and the attacking form of players like Sarr and Mateta, a high-scoring contest looks very plausible. Brighton’s shaky defense, especially away, increases the chances.
?? Both Teams to Score: YES
This bet almost picks itself. Both teams have scored in the last seven Palace home matches vs Brighton, and both have been consistently finding the net in 2025. Palace’s tendency to concede at home (12 out of 15 games) and Brighton’s away scoring streak make this highly likely.
?? Goal Before Halftime: YES
83% of Brighton’s games have had at least one first-half goal, and Mateta’s knack for early strikes (5 opening goals) points toward a quick start. Add in the emotional intensity of the derby, and the chances of a first-half goal are very strong.
? Final Thoughts
This has all the makings of another dramatic M23 derby, but the run of 1-1 draws at Selhurst Park might finally come to an end. Palace’s attacking threat under Glasner, combined with Brighton’s unpredictable away form and shaky defense in London, could lead to a slightly more open affair.
Predicted Score: Crystal Palace 2-2 Brighton
Expect goals, drama, and perhaps another chapter in the derby’s bizarrely symmetrical history—just with a little more chaos this time.
15:00 – Ipswich v Wolves – 2.38 Wolves
- Ipswich Town vs Wolverhampton Wanderers – Premier League Match Preview
It’s now or never for Ipswich Town as they welcome Wolverhampton Wanderers to Portman Road in what is arguably their most pivotal game of the season. Despite a stirring 2-1 away win against Bournemouth in midweek, the Tractor Boys remain rooted in deep relegation trouble, still nine points adrift of safety. Defeat here would all but seal their fate, extending the gap to a daunting 12 points with just seven games left to salvage their top-flight status.
? Pressure Mounts on Ipswich
Ipswich have found no comfort at home, where their form has completely collapsed. They’ve lost their last five consecutive home matches and suffered defeat in eight of their last nine league outings at Portman Road. That kind of form hasn’t been seen since 1963 when they last dropped six home league games on the bounce. Alarmingly, they’ve conceded 2+ goals in each of those last five home defeats, with defensive frailties proving costly time and again.
While historical head-to-heads offer a sliver of hope – Ipswich have lost just once in their last eight home league meetings against Wolves – the five draws in that span (W2, D5, L1) highlight the challenge of turning narrow margins into wins. With only one top-flight H2H double against Wolves in the last four decades (1983/84), the odds are stacked high.
? Wolves Resurgent Under Pereira
Wolves are riding a wave of renewed confidence under Vítor Pereira, who has steadied the ship since replacing Gary O’Neil. Their midweek 1-0 victory over West Ham pushed them further clear of danger and into mid-table territory based on form since Pereira’s appointment. In those 14 games, Wolves have posted 6 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses, form that would have them among the league’s top ten.
Wolves also bring strong form against newly promoted sides, having won six of their last eight Premier League encounters with such opponents. While Ipswich were the only one to beat them this season, Wolves will be keen to avoid joining Birmingham (2009/10) as the only promoted side to do the double over them.
?? Key Duel: Clarke vs. Doherty
Ipswich winger Jack Clarke is in desperate need of a breakthrough. He’s never won a home Premier League match in 12 attempts (D4, L8) – an unfortunate record he now shares for the most in league history. Lining up against him is Wolves’ Matt Doherty, a potent attacking full-back who has scored three of his last four Premier League goals away from home, each time levelling the score at 1-1. Expect plenty of activity down that flank.
? Key Stats:
Ipswich have lost 10 of their 15 home league games this season.
Ipswich have failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 12 league games.
Ipswich have conceded 2+ goals in their last five home matches.
Wolves have scored in 12 of their 15 away league matches.
70% of Wolves’ games this season have seen over 2.5 goals.
Wolves have scored in each of their last 7 league matches.
There’s been at least one first-half goal in each of Wolves’ last 10 away games.
Ipswich have conceded the first goal in their last five home games.
A card has been shown in the first 30 minutes in the last five H2Hs at Portman Road.
65% of Ipswich’s points have come away from home.
? Betting Predictions:
? Over 2.5 Goals – YES
The stats overwhelmingly support a high-scoring affair. Ipswich’s leaky defence, especially at home (conceding 2+ goals in five straight games), combined with Wolves’ attacking potency and tendency to be involved in goal-heavy fixtures (70% of games over 2.5), point toward another match with at least three goals.
? Both Teams to Score – YES
Ipswich, for all their struggles, have still managed to score in 11 of their 15 away games and have found the net in their recent home losses. Wolves, meanwhile, have scored in seven straight and in 80% of their away matches. Both sides are defensively vulnerable, making BTTS a strong possibility.
? Goal Before Halftime – YES
There has been at least one first-half goal in 87% of Wolves’ Premier League matches this season and in each of their last 10 away games. With both teams aware of the stakes, expect urgency from the kickoff. A goal before the break looks highly likely.
? Verdict:
Ipswich are fighting for survival, but their home form is a glaring weakness. Wolves have found rhythm under Pereira, and their away scoring record combined with Ipswich’s defensive lapses should see goals at both ends. The result may hinge on fine margins, but it’s hard to see Ipswich keeping a clean sheet or preventing Wolves from capitalizing on their momentum.
Predicted Scoreline: Ipswich 1-2 Wolves
Best Bets:
? Over 2.5 Goals
? Both Teams to Score
? Goal Before Halftime
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15:00 – West Ham v Bournemouth – 2.20 Bournemouth
- West Ham United vs Bournemouth – Premier League Match Preview
Two out-of-form sides meet at the London Stadium as West Ham host Bournemouth in a fixture where both will be desperate to arrest alarming recent slides. While West Ham appear safe from relegation with a sizeable 14-point cushion, recent performances have left much to be desired, and pressure is mounting on Graham Potter to end the campaign on a more positive note.
?? West Ham’s Frustrating Season Continues
Since Graham Potter took the reins following Julen Lopetegui’s departure, West Ham have stumbled through their campaign. Their recent 1-0 defeat to Wolves was symbolic of their toothless displays in 2025 so far, and they’re now without a win in three (D1, L2).
While relegation isn’t a realistic threat, the Hammers sit uncomfortably in 16th and have failed to win eight of their 15 home matches, a worrying record for a club with European ambitions just a year ago. Their fans have found little solace at the London Stadium, where the team has conceded in 13 of 15 league games.
One bright spot could be their solid unbeaten run against Bournemouth, having not lost in their last seven Premier League head-to-heads (W3, D4). However, with confidence at a low ebb and fans restless, nothing can be taken for granted.
? Bournemouth on the Slide
Just a few weeks ago, Bournemouth were eyeing up a potential European place, but a torrid stretch has quickly changed the narrative. Their 2-1 loss at home to relegation-threatened Ipswich was their third defeat on the bounce in all competitions, and they now find themselves winless in five league games (D1, L4).
Despite the slump, the Cherries remain a much tougher outfit on the road, where they’ve lost just once in their last nine league games (W5, D3, L1). Their 23 away points are already a Premier League club record, showing they’re far more comfortable on their travels than at the Vitality.
Offensively, they’ve found a rhythm away from home, scoring in 13 of their 15 away league games and in each of their last 11 on the road. However, defensive issues persist – no clean sheets in any of their seven away matches against West Ham, and at least two goals conceded in each of their last four games.
? Key Players to Watch
Lucas Paquetá (West Ham) – The Brazilian has been one of the few bright sparks, netting 12 Premier League goals since joining the Hammers. Interestingly, Bournemouth are the only side he’s scored more than once against – both coming away, but he’ll look to break that duck at home this time.
Justin Kluivert (Bournemouth) – The Dutchman has made a habit of turning up on the road, contributing to 14 goals in 14 away appearances this season (10 goals, 4 assists). He’s Bournemouth’s most consistent threat away from home.
? Key Stats:
West Ham have lost 8 of their 15 home matches.
West Ham have conceded in 13 of their 15 home games.
Bournemouth have never kept a clean sheet in 7 away Premier League visits to West Ham.
Bournemouth have scored in each of their last 11 away matches.
Bournemouth have conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 4 games.
Bournemouth have failed to keep a clean sheet in 7 straight games.
35% of Bournemouth’s goals have come after the 75th minute.
West Ham are winless in 3 (D1, L2), Bournemouth winless in 5 (D1, L4).
? Betting Insights & Predictions
? Over 2.5 Goals – YES
Both teams are leaky at the back and capable of scoring, especially Bournemouth away from home. The Cherries’ last four games have seen them concede at least two, and West Ham’s home form suggests they’ll give up chances too. With attacking threats like Paquetá and Kluivert, expect a match with at least three goals.
? Both Teams to Score – YES
Bournemouth have scored in 13 of 15 away games and West Ham have netted in the same number of away matches, though their home attack has been less reliable. Still, both defences are suspect, and Bournemouth’s scoring streak on the road suggests BTTS is highly likely.
? Goal Before Halftime – YES
Given that Bournemouth have been conceding early and West Ham are usually breached at home, a goal before the break seems probable. Add to that the recent patterns of urgency in both teams and it’s likely we’ll see early action on the scoreboard.
? Verdict
Two teams desperate for a response will be eager to make a statement. Bournemouth’s away form and goal threat, coupled with West Ham’s inconsistency and leaky defence, make this one feel like it could be a lively, open contest.
Predicted Scoreline: West Ham 2-2 Bournemouth
Best Bets:
? Over 2.5 Goals
? Both Teams to Score
? Goal Before Halftime
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17:30 – Aston Villa v Nottingham – 2.00 Aston Villa
- Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest – Match Preview
Villa Park sets the stage for a high-stakes Premier League showdown as an in-form Aston Villa welcome a resurgent Nottingham Forest. Both sides are flying high on recent form, boasting strong records and plenty of attacking firepower. With Champions League and FA Cup ambitions still burning brightly, Unai Emery’s Villa side will be keen to maintain momentum, while Forest arrive full of confidence and aiming to complete a historic league double.
? Form & Momentum
Aston Villa are currently one of the hottest teams in European football. A six-match winning streak across all competitions has propelled them to the Champions League quarter-finals and the FA Cup semi-finals, and re-established them in the race for top-four domestic glory. Their most recent statement was a clinical 3-0 away win at Brighton – the third consecutive match they’ve won by that exact scoreline and a fourth successive clean sheet.
Villa Park has become a fortress under Emery. The Villans are unbeaten in 16 consecutive home games (W10, D6), and with goals flowing freely, they’ve scored in each of their last 11 outings on home turf. However, defensively, they haven’t been quite as watertight at home, failing to keep a clean sheet in any of their last seven home games – a curious contrast to their recent away form.
Nottingham Forest, under Nuno Espírito Santo, are enjoying a purple patch of their own. A five-game winning run, including a dramatic penalties win over Brighton to reach the FA Cup semi-finals, has revitalized their campaign. Last time out, they edged Manchester United 1-0 in a midweek clash to solidify their claim as a top-six contender.
While traditionally shaky away from home, Forest have improved on the road – winning 12 of their last 19 away matches in all competitions. That said, they’ve conceded two or more goals in each of their last four away trips, suggesting vulnerability against a Villa side that doesn’t need a second invitation to score.
? Head-to-Head
Villa boast a strong record at home against Forest, unbeaten in the last eight meetings at Villa Park (W5, D3). Forest did claim a 2-1 win in the reverse fixture in December, and are now chasing a first league double over Villa since the 1984/85 season.
? Players to Watch
Marco Asensio (Aston Villa) – The Spanish playmaker has found electric form, scoring all eight of his goals this season after the break. He’s on a streak of scoring braces in each of his last three appearances at Villa Park.
Anthony Elanga (Nottingham Forest) – A clutch performer, Elanga netted a last-gasp winner in the reverse fixture and has scored the final goal in four of his five scoring appearances this season.
? Key Stats
Villa have scored in 11 of their last 15 away matches and each of their last 11 at home.
Villa are undefeated in their last 14 at Villa Park but have failed to keep a clean sheet in the last 7.
67% of Villa’s league games have seen over 2.5 goals.
Forest have scored in 12 of their 15 away matches.
Forest have scored the opening goal in 23 of 30 league games – a league-high.
Forest have kept four straight home clean sheets but conceded 2+ in their last four away.
Only 13 of Forest’s 30 league games have seen both teams score (joint-league low).
Nuno has lost 3 of his 5 visits to Villa Park (W1, D1).
? Predictions
? Over 2.5 Goals – YES
With both sides in scoring form and Forest conceding heavily away, this looks like another high-scoring affair. Villa have seen 67% of their matches go over 2.5 goals and are firing on all cylinders. Forest, despite their away struggles defensively, still find the net regularly.
? Both Teams to Score – YES
Despite Forest’s low BTTS rate, Villa’s poor defensive record at home (no clean sheet in 7) combined with Forest’s consistent away scoring form makes a case for both teams finding the net.
? Goal Before Halftime – YES
Forest are notorious fast starters, scoring the opener in 23 of 30 games. Villa also tend to be aggressive from the outset at home, and with both teams likely to push early, a goal before halftime looks very likely.
? Final Verdict
Expect a fast-paced and attacking game between two confident sides. Villa’s firepower and home advantage should see them edge the contest, but Forest’s threat – particularly on the counter – could make this a real thriller. Goals look almost guaranteed.
Prediction: Aston Villa 2-1 Nottingham Forest