Sunday 10th March 2024 Football Trading Research

Review/Preview : https://youtu.be/Zu3ugc2NNCM

Live 14:00 :https://youtube.com/live/YDYaFxAcD9A?feature=share

English Premier League

13:00 – Aston Villa ( pre- and post-Europa Conference League) v Tottenham – 2.37 Aston Villa

• The market suggests that we step back here. 2.37 the favourite.
• 3 consecutive wins for Aston Villa. They have scored and conceded in their last 4 matches.
• Aston Villa have scored in their last 13 home matches, both teams scoring in the last 5 home matches.
• 4th v 5th, only 2 home defeats for Villa came v Man Utd and Newcastle, both teams who have done the double over Villa this season. 1-2 win v Tottenham last head to head.
• Only 2 defeats for Tottenham since 10th December. Both teams have scored in the last 9 matches. Tottenham have scored in their last 26 matches.
• 2+ goals scored in their last 5 away matches.
• Tottenham have not beaten the top 10 away, albeit 3 score draws v the top 6, 3-3, 2-2, 2-2.
• Angles? The market cannot decide. We could see both teams score as happens in Tottenham away matches v the top 10. Both teams are continuous consecutive goalscorers. Back 2-2, 3-3 pre match for a fun angle which covers a lot of permutations if both teams score. A difficult match to unpack.

14:00 – Brighton ( pre-and post-Europa League) v Nottingham Forest – 1.70 Brighton

• Only 3 wins since 9th December for Brighton. No defeat in 11 at home,
• 9th v 17th, Brighton are unbeaten at home v 8th and lower. 2-3 win last head to head. Both teams have scored in all home matches v 12th and lower.
• Only 1 win in 7 matches for Forest came v West Ham. Both teams have scored in 8 of their last 10 matches.
• Both teams have scored in the last 5 away matches.
• All defeats bar 1 away v the top 8. Notably Forest scored 2 goals in 4 of those matches, winning only one.
• Angles? Brighton are hard to beat at home. It seems that even if Forest score 2 goals against the top 8 ( they play 9th today), that may not guarantee a win! If seasonal form continues today, then both teams to score with Brighton not losing would be the call.

14:00 – West Ham (pre- and post- Europa League) v Burnley – 1.67 West Ham

• 3 draws, 3 defeats, 2 wins West Ham. West Ham have conceded in their last 7 matches .
• 7th v 19th, Only 1 loss at home for West Ham v 6th and lower.
• 1-2 win last head to head.
• 7 losses and 2 draws last 9 matches for Burnley.
• 4 consecutive away defeats. They have conceded last 9 matches
• All defeats home and away v the top 8.
• Angles? Must win for Burnley in relegation trouble. West Ham at home have only 1 loss v 6th and lower.

15:45 – Liverpool ( pre- and post- Europa League) v Man City – 2.20 Man City

• High profile derby style match. Enjoy this title contender but any form-research is redundant.

Spanish La Liga Primera

13:00 – Alaves v Rayo Vallecano – 2.10 Alaves

• 2 losses and 3 draws for Alaves last 5 matches.
• 2 consecutive home 1-1 draws.
• 13th v 16th, Alaves are unbeaten at home v 12th and lower. 2-0 loss last head to head.
• only 5 wins for Vallecano, one came away.
• No win in 8 and in 4 away matches.
• only 1 loss away v 11th and lower came v 15th.
• 13/15 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
• Both teams tend to perform better against bottom 1/2 sides.

15:15 – Las Palmas v Athletic Bilbao – 2.00 Athletic Bilbao

• 2 consecutive score draws for Las Palmas. Las Palmas have scored in their last 8 home matches. 8th v 5th, Las Palmas have had 3 2-1 scorelines v the top 4, 2 1-2 defeats and a 2-1 win at home v the top 4.
• 1-0 loss last head to head.
• Only 1 loss at home v 4th and lower.
• All 10 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
• Loss, Draw, Draw, Loss away for Athletic Bilbao.
• Athletic Bilbao have not beaten a top 9 side away. 9/12 goals scored away came 1st half.
• Angles? I was edging towards Athletic Bilbao but they are yet to beat a top 9 side. If they do score it tends to be first half rather than 2nd half.
• We could see both teams score as happens in Las Palmas matches at home v the top 4.

17:30 – Real Madrid v Celta Vigo – 1.28 Real Madrid

• Only 1 loss for Real Madrid. No defeat in 21 and in 13 at home. 2 consecutive home clean sheets.
• Both teams have scored in their last 15 matches and last 8 home matches.
• 1st v 17th, 0-1 win last head to head. 21/31 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
• Only 3 wins in 10 matches for Celta Vigo.
• Celta Vigo have scored in their last 5 away matches. 2+ goals scored last 3 matches.
• All defeats home and away v the top 5.
• Angles? Real Madrid are tough to beat at home but do score and concede. That could be an angle today. Real Madrid do score 2nd half away so remember that if they need goals .

20:00 – Real Betis v Villarreal ( pre- and post- Europa League)- 2.10 Real Betis

• Only 5 defeats for Betis, 4 came away from home.
• Draw, Draw, Win at home for Betis.
• 6th v 12th, Betis are unbeaten at home v 3rd and lower.
• 1-2 win at home.
• 12/19 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
• Villareal are unbeaten in 7 matches.
• Villareal have conceded last 9 away matches.
• Away wins were 3-5 v 2nd, 1-3 v 7th, 0-1 v 15th and 2-3 win v 19th.
• Angles? Betis have lost only 5 matches, enough for them to side with today? Villareal have only 4 away wins albeit scoring 3+ goals

German Bundesliga

14:30 – Bochum v Freiburg ( pre- and post- Europa League) – 2.25 Bochum

• 8 match unbeaten home run for Bochum ended last match v leipzig.
• Both teams have scored in the last 6 matches . Bochum have scored in the last 12 home matches.
• 15th v 10th, only 2 home wins v 4th and 12th but 6 score draws.
• 2-1 loss last head to head.
• Only 1 win in 9 matches for Freiburg. 4 consecutive away defeats. No draw in 9 away. Freiburg are unbeaten home and away v 12th and lower.
• 2 0-1 wins away v 12th and lower.
• Angles? Bochum have been solid at home , remember 8 unbeaten prior to meeting leipzig latest. Both teams to score has potential. Freiburg away form is ok, unbeaten v 12th and lower albeit 2 0-1 away wins. Are Freiburg layable if leading?

16:30 – Eintracht Frankfurt v Hoffenheim – 2.05 Frankfurt

• No defeat in 5 at home for Frankfurt. They have scored and conceded last 4 matches and scored last 8 at home.
• 6th v 7th. Only 1 loss at home v 3rd. 1-3 win last head to head.
• 9/11 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
• 2 consecutive wins for Hoffenheim v Dortmund and Werder Bremen. As ever, which Hoff turns up?
• They have conceded in their last 19 matches. 4 away losses v 2nd, 4th, 10th and 12th.
• 16/23 goals conceded away came 2nd half
• Angles? Frankfurt are excellent at home. Hoff though remind us that they can big a big boy – a recent win v Dortmund. They have conceded last 19 matches.Remember that. Expect 2nd half goals.

18:30 – Bayer Leverkusen (pre- and post – Europa League) v Wolfsburg – 1.28 Bayer Leverkusen

• Leverkusen are unbeaten.
• 5 consecutive wins, 2 at home. 2+ goals scored in their last 5 matches.
• 1-2 win last head to head. 1st v 13th.
• 6 score draws in 8 winless matches for Wolfsburg.
• 3 draws in 4 matches away.
• Wolfsburg have conceded last 9 and last 4 away.
• 4/4 losses v the top 3 home and away, both teams scoring.
• 9/12 goals scored away came 1st half.
• Angles? Surely score draw best case scenario for Wolfsburg. Wolfsburg layable if leading.

French Ligue 1

12:00 – PSG v Reims – 1.40 PSG

• Only 1 defeat all season for PSG. 2 consecutive draws.
• No defeat in 19 matches and in 9 at home, PSG have scored in their last 11 home matches and scored and conceded last 6 home matches.
• 1st v 9th, 0-3 win last head to head. Unbeaten home and away v 6th and lower.
• only 1 win in 6 matches for Reims.No draw in 7 away. Reims have conceded in their last 5 and last 6 away.
• Reims did beat 3rd and 4th away, not met the top 2 away. But did lose away v 5th, 6th, 7th and 8th.
• 13/18 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
• Angles? An excellent season for PSG makes them difficult to oppose, particularly v a Reims side with only 1 win in 6 matches. Unbeaten in 19, PSG are going to be tough to beat without Champions League distraction.

14:00 – Le Havre v Toulouse – 2.50 Toulouse

• leave this to inplay stats. Toulouse, at any rate, have been a tough team to trust.

14:00 – Strasbourg v Monaco – 2.00 Monaco

• 4 defeats and a 2-2 for Strasbourg recently.
• 3 consecutive home defeats.
• Strasbourg have conceded in their last 13 matches.
• 3-0 loss last head to head. 13th v 3rd, only 1 win home and away v the top 9.
• 11/14 goals scored at home came 2nd half
• 2-2, 2-3 win, 2-3 win last 3 away matches for Monaco. Very competitive if conceding 2 goals.
• 2+ goals scored last 6 away matches. Both teams scored last 6 away matches.
• Monaco are unbeaten away v 5th and lower. 2+ goals scored in all bar 1 match there.
• Angles? Strasbourg recent form has gone off the boil, and they have only 1 win home and away v the top 9. Monaco are on a run of conceding 2 goals 3 times but not losing. Trust them today? Battling qualities. 2+ goals in the Monaco bag?

16:00 – Lille ( pre- and post- Europa Conference League) v Rennes – 2.00 Lille

• Only 5 defeats all season for Lille, 4 of those defeats coming away from home.
• 3 consecutive home wins Lille. No defeat in 8 at home, scoring in their last 11 at home. 2+ goals scored last 3 at home.
• Lille have led in 8/11 at home.
• 4th v 8th, 2-2 last head to head. Lille are yet to play 4th-8th at home.
• 14/21 goals scored at home came 1st half.
• 6 consecutive wins and a draw for Rennes came prior to their loss last match. 3 wins and a 1-1 v PSG last 4 away matches
• Rennes have scored last 8 and last 4 away matches.
• Rennes have not beaten the top 8 away.
• Angles? Rennes are coming off the back of a concerted period of winning so cannot necessarily be discounted. Lille have 3 consecutive home wins, and are unbeaten in 8 at home. They play a Rennes yet to beat the top 8 away.

19:45 – Marseille (pre-and post – Europa Conference League) v Nantes – 1.50 Marseille

2 consecutive wins for Marseille scoring 9 goals. No defeat in 12 at home, scoring and conceding in their last 5 at home. They have conceded in their last 10 matches.

• 7th v 15th, 1-1 last head to head, Marseille are unbeaten at home.
• A draw and 2 consecutive away wins for Nantes.
• All defeats away v the top 8.
• 67% of goals away came 2nd half.
• Angles? Marseille look great at home , they do score and concede, are Nantes layable if leading? Look for 2nd half goals if now first half.

Italian Serie A

11:30 – Lecce v Verona – 2.25 Lecce

• Only 2 wins since 26th September. Lecce have conceded in their last 22 matches.
• 14th v 19th, 6 score draws, and 2 wins home and away for Lecce v 13th and lower.
• 2-2 last head to head.
• 11/15 goals scored at home came 2nd half. Only 2 wins for Verona since 2024
• 5 losses and a draw away recently for Verona.
• No win in 13 away
• No 2nd goal scored away v the top 15.
• 8/9 goals scored away came 2nd half.
• Angles? These 2 are in poor form. Are Verona vulnerable if leading. Where is that 2nd goal?

14:00 – AC Milan ( pre- and post- Europa League) v Empoli – 1.40 AC Milan

• Only 2 defeats since 11th November for AC Milan.
• No defeat in 8 at home. AC Milan have scored in their last 16 matches.
• 3rd v 14th, all wins bar 1 at home v 7th and lower. 0-3 win last head to head.
• Only 1 loss for Empoli since 21st January.
• A draw and 2 consecutive wins away.
• Both teams scored last 4 away matches. Only 2 wins away v the top 18 came v 7th and 8th away.
• 10/13 goals scored away came 2nd half.
• Angles? No need to desert AC Milan who are unbeaten in 8 at home and are unbeaten in 16 matches. Empoli have only 2 away wins v the top 18.

17:00 – Juventus v Atalanta (pre-and post- Europa League) – 2.10 Juventus

• Derby style match. Only 1 win in 6 matches for Juventus.
• 2nd v 6th, only 1 home loss was a 0-1 v 15th.
• 0-0 last head to head
• Juventus have not scored and conceded that 2nd goal at home v the top 7.
• 7 0-0’s at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
• A draw and 2 consecutive defeats Atalanta. Atalanta have conceded in their last 7 away matches.
• Atalanta have not beaten a top 10 side away.
• Angles? Derby style match . Notably Atalanta have not beaten a top 10 side away. Juventus trouble is that they are yet to score that 2nd goal at home v the top 7.

19:45 – Fiorentina ( pre- and post- Europa Conference League) v Roma ( pre- and post- Europa League) – 2.37 Fiorentina

• Roma for me do still look reliable under new manager Daniele De Rossi. He tends to get 2 goals out of Roma. BUT….? What impact pre and post Europa League? It should really be levelled out with Fiorentina’s pre and post Conference league. I will leave this to the inplay stats.