A bumper day today including a look at the tennis. A potential developing new idea targeting red carded sides leading. It’s a consistently profitable angle and if insurance can be applied, we should have a reliable strategy.
Review/Preview : Plenty to talk about including a £53 profit for a £4 outlay!
Live : https://youtube.com/live/hdrPUhKk-Bo?feature=share from 14:00 A look at the tennis too. And I may fire up simulation mode today to try out an exclusively NEUTRAL trading session, where we rely on both teams . There has been an epidemic of 0-2 wins for underdogs. In the livestream, we’ll try and solve this puzzle.
Should all this footy thing fall through, I will form the new Dubliners. Here’s a first effort, an Irish ditty about bad horse racing tipsters! https://youtu.be/PATGjlltMTc?si=_qghKHwPaC_0BKr9
Chelsea vs Ipswich Town: Premier League Match Preview
Prediction: Chelsea 3–1 Ipswich Town
Overview
Chelsea’s pursuit of Champions League football resumes at Stamford Bridge, where they’ll face a beleaguered Ipswich Town side rapidly running out of survival lifelines. With momentum from a dominant 3-0 win over Legia Warsaw in the Conference League midweek, head coach Enzo Maresca now has the luxury to field a strong XI as the Blues attempt to stay ahead of Newcastle in the top-four scrap.
Ipswich, who surprisingly defeated Chelsea 2-0 earlier this season, have watched their campaign unravel since. Just one Premier League victory since the start of the year has left them 12 points from safety, and manager Kieran McKenna has all but conceded relegation is inevitable. Still, motivation to complete a rare league double over Chelsea may stir a response.
The Blues are in top home form, having won six in a row at the Bridge. Ipswich, meanwhile, have conceded in every away game since October and haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their last 13 matches overall. Their defence continues to leak heavily, particularly in the second half — and facing a Chelsea side that has scored in 14 of 15 home league games doesn’t bode well.
Key Stats
- Chelsea have won 6 straight Premier League home games
- Ipswich have failed to keep a clean sheet in 13 straight matches
- Chelsea have scored in 14 of 15 home league games this season
- Ipswich have conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 6 home games
- Ipswich have lost 11 of their 16 home matches and their last 6 consecutively
- Liam Delap has 12 goals, 5 of which opened the scoring
- Chelsea have conceded in 11 of their 15 home matches
- Chelsea have scored in the second half of their last 8 home games
- 65% of Ipswich’s points have come away from home
- Chelsea last won 6 or more home games in a row back in July 2020
Betting Conclusions
| Market | Prediction | Reasoning Summary |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | Yes | Chelsea score regularly at home; Ipswich concede heavily, especially in the 2nd half |
| Both Teams to Score | Yes | Ipswich have scored in 11 of 15 away games; Chelsea rarely keep clean sheets |
| Goal Before Halftime | Yes | Ipswich often start fast (61% of goals in 1H); Chelsea at home like to set early tempo |
Final Verdict
Chelsea will want to avenge their earlier loss to Ipswich and continue their strong home run. Expect goals, and don’t be shocked if Ipswich snatch a consolation — but the gulf in form and quality should be obvious.
Predicted Scoreline: Chelsea 3–1 Ipswich Town
14:00 Liverpool v West Ham – 1.33 Liverpool
?? Premier League | Sunday – Liverpool vs West Ham United
Prediction: Liverpool 3–1 West Ham United
? Overview
Liverpool may have hit a rough patch in recent weeks, but their pursuit of the Premier League crown remains firmly in their grasp. Despite defeats in the Champions League, Carabao Cup final, and a recent 3-2 league loss to Fulham, they still enjoy a commanding lead at the top. With four of their final seven league fixtures at Anfield—where they’ve been dominant—confidence in a strong finish remains high.
They welcome a West Ham side in freefall. Graham Potter’s men have failed to win in their last four league outings and continue to let leads slip. Sitting in 16th with nothing but pride to play for, the Hammers have become familiar victims at Anfield, where they’ve lost on nine straight visits and conceded five goals in each of the last two.
Goals are almost guaranteed when these sides clash—each of the last five meetings have produced over 3.5 goals. Liverpool’s firepower remains potent, with Mohamed Salah and Cody Gakpo both prolific at home, while Jarrod Bowen continues to be West Ham’s main spark in a season otherwise filled with inconsistency.
? Key Stats
- ? Liverpool have won 9 straight home games vs West Ham
- ? Over 3.5 goals in the last 5 H2Hs
- ? Liverpool: unbeaten in last 13 home PL matches (W12, D1)
- ? Liverpool have scored in 27 consecutive matches
- ?? West Ham: only 4 wins from last 21 away games in all comps
- ? West Ham conceded 5 goals in each of last 2 visits to Anfield
- ? Salah has scored in 71% of PL matches this season
- ? West Ham have scored in 13 of 15 away PL matches
- ? Liverpool have scored 2+ goals in each of their last 6 away games
? Betting Conclusions
| Market | Prediction | Reasoning Summary |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | ? Yes | Five straight H2Hs with 4+ goals; both teams carry attacking threats |
| Both Teams to Score | ? Yes | West Ham have scored in 13 of 15 away games; Liverpool rarely keep clean sheets |
| Goal Before Halftime | ? Yes | Expect a fast start—goals before halftime in most recent meetings |
Final Verdict:
Liverpool’s home dominance and attacking options should be far too much for a struggling West Ham, but the visitors could still find the net in what promises to be another open affair. The Reds will want to silence doubts after recent stumbles and will likely do so in convincing fashion.
Predicted Scoreline: Liverpool 3–1 West Ham United
14:00 Wolves v Tottenham – 2.25 Wolves
•Here’s a clean, uniquely written preview for Wolves vs Tottenham, following your preferred format with bullet stats and betting conclusions:
?? Premier League | Sunday – Wolves vs Tottenham
Prediction: Wolves 2–2 Tottenham
? Overview
Both Wolves and Tottenham arrive at Molineux eager to shake off turbulent stretches of form and finish their seasons on a high. Wolves have put breathing room between themselves and the relegation zone after a gritty 2-1 win over Ipswich, while Spurs continue to sputter in the league and in Europe, most recently throwing away a lead in their 2-2 draw with Frankfurt.
This fixture has been quietly swinging in Wolves’ favour in recent times—unbeaten in their last four league meetings with Spurs (W3, D1). Clean sheets have been key at Molineux, where all of Wolves’ wins this season came with shutouts. However, with both sides scoring and conceding freely in recent matches, that trend may not hold.
Tottenham’s away form has been woeful, losing 9 of their 16 road games, a stat that echoes their 2003/04 struggles. Ange Postecoglou is under pressure, and a disjointed Spurs side have struggled to string together convincing performances away from home. Wolves, meanwhile, are scoring regularly with Jørgen Strand Larsen and Matheus Cunha in strong form—particularly Larsen, who’s scored in three straight and is becoming a real talisman.
? Key Stats
- ? Wolves unbeaten in last 4 PL H2Hs vs Spurs (W3, D1)
- ? Larsen has scored in 3 straight games; Wolves won all of them
- ? Wolves have scored in 8 straight PL games
- ? Wolves have won all 5 Molineux matches with a clean sheet
- ? Spurs have lost 9 of their 16 away league matches
- ? Spurs conceded first in 11 straight away defeats
- ? 71% of Wolves games have featured over 2.5 goals
- ?? First-half goal in 10 straight Wolves matches
- ? Spurs: just 1 win in last 5 league games
- ? Brennan Johnson has 3 goals in 5 games vs Wolves (D2, L3)
? Betting Conclusions
| Market | Prediction | Reasoning Summary |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | ? Yes | Both teams are scoring and conceding regularly; 71% of Wolves’ games go over |
| Both Teams to Score | ? Yes | Wolves have scored in 8 straight; Spurs have conceded in 11 of 16 away matches |
| Goal Before Halftime | ? Yes | 10 straight Wolves matches had a first-half goal; Spurs often start fast or leak early |
Final Verdict:
While neither side has much to play for in the standings, Wolves’ recent H2H record and home resilience suggest they won’t be pushovers. Tottenham’s attacking talent gives them hope, but another inconsistent away performance could see points shared in an entertaining draw.
Predicted Scoreline: Wolves 2–2 Tottenham
16:30 Newcastle v Manchester Utd – 1.70 Newcastle
?? Premier League | Sunday – Newcastle United vs Manchester UnitedPrediction: Newcastle 2–1 Manchester United
? Overview
Riding high after an emphatic 3-0 victory over Leicester, Newcastle are firmly in the hunt for a top-five finish and a potential Champions League berth. Eddie Howe’s men are chasing a fifth straight win in all competitions, and spirits are sky-high at St James’ Park ahead of a visit from a faltering Manchester United side.
The reverse fixture saw the Magpies dominate in a 2-0 win at Old Trafford – their eighth consecutive H2H win with a clean sheet – and they now have the chance to complete a rare league double over the Red Devils for the first time since the 1930/31 season. United, meanwhile, come into this clash distracted and depleted. A Europa League quarter-final second leg against Lyon looms, while recent domestic form is wobbly – winless in three and reliant on late goals to stay afloat.
André Onana’s continued goalkeeping struggles add another layer of uncertainty for United, whose supporters will note the recent record with concern: they’ve lost four of the last five against Newcastle, as many as in the previous 41 H2Hs combined. With Alexander Isak in form and Newcastle scoring early and often at home, this could be another long day for the visitors.
? Key Stats
? Newcastle are on a 4-match winning streak in all competitions
? Manchester United have won just 1 of their last 5 H2Hs (L4)
? Newcastle have kept a clean sheet in each of their last 8 H2H wins
?? Newcastle have scored before half-time in 12 straight home games
? A first-half goal has been scored in each of Newcastle’s last 26 home games
? Alexander Isak has scored in 50% of PL matches this season
? Man Utd have scored just once in the first 15 minutes all season
? Man Utd have conceded in 12 of 16 home games; 61% of goals conceded at home
? Man Utd have scored 35% of goals after the 75th minute
? Zirkzee has scored 3 of his last 4 goals away from home (all post-HT)
? Betting Conclusions
Market
Prediction
Reasoning Summary
Over 2.5 Goals
? Yes
Both teams tend to score late; Newcastle attacking form strong; Utd vulnerable
Both Teams to Score
? Yes
Utd usually find a late goal, and Newcastle often concede despite dominance
Goal Before Halftime
? Yes
Newcastle score early; 26 straight home games with 1H goals; Utd start slowly
Final Verdict:
Newcastle look poised to continue their dominance in this fixture. With Manchester United’s attention divided and defence exposed, the Magpies could take full advantage. Expect United to salvage pride with a late goal, but the points should stay in the northeast.
Predicted Scoreline: Newcastle 2–1 Manchester United