Date: Sunday, December 21, 2025
Subject: Market Analysis – First Half Correct Score Markets
As we approach the festive fixture congestion, the Premier League table is beginning to tell stories that go beyond the title race between Manchester City and the surprise package of the season, Crystal Palace. For football traders and smart bettors, the real value often lies in the “boring” metrics—specifically, the teams that excel at nullifying opponents in the opening 45 minutes.
In the world of sports trading, the 0-0 Half-Time (HT) market is a staple strategy, often referred to as “scalping the draw” or playing the time decay. To make this work, you don’t just need low-scoring teams; you need teams that are structurally risk-averse in the first half.
Based on the data from the first 16–17 gameweeks of the 2025/26 campaign, here is your blueprint for profiting from the deadlock specialists across Europe.
Premier League: The 50% Club
While Thomas Frank’s Tottenham Hotspur are navigating a transitional mid-table season and Ruben Amorim’s Manchester United are finding their attacking groove, two teams have emerged as the undisputed kings of the first-half stalemate: Leeds United and Fulham.
Both sides have recorded 8 draws at half-time in their opening 16 matches—a staggering 50% strike rate.
- Leeds United (Daniel Farke): Back in the top flight, Leeds have adopted a pragmatic approach to survival. Their first-half game plan has been about containment. With 10 goals scored and 10 conceded in the first half all season, they aren’t parking the bus entirely, but they are happy to enter the tunnel level.
- Fulham (Marco Silva): Similarly, Fulham’s stats mirror Leeds almost identically (10 GF, 10 GA in 1st Half). Silva’s side has become adept at managing the tempo early on, often killing the game’s rhythm before opening up in the second period.
The “Moyes Effect” at Everton
Since his return to Goodison Park in January 2025, David Moyes has restored defensive solidity to the Toffees. Sitting comfortably in 9th, Everton have drawn 25% of their first halves, but more importantly, their first-half goal difference is tight (-2). Moyes’ teams are historically slow starters, prioritizing a clean sheet over early risks, making them a solid candidate for Under 0.5 First Half Goals trades, especially away from home.
Crystal Palace: The High-Flying Defensive Unit
Oliver Glasner’s Palace are sitting 2nd in the league, a remarkable feat. Their success is built on a rock-solid first-half foundation. They have conceded just 5 goals in the first half across 16 games. While they have won 8 of those halves, their defensive discipline means that backing “No First Half Goal” in Palace matches against top-tier opposition (like the upcoming clash with Liverpool) offers genuine value.
European Watch: The Iron Curtains
If you are looking outside the Premier League, the data highlights three specific teams that are essentially “auto-includes” for 0-0 shortlists.
- La Liga: CA Osasuna
The Pamplona outfit is statistically the most defensively stubborn first-half team in Europe’s top five leagues. In 16 games, they have conceded an average of just 0.25 goals per first half. Their matches are often devoid of early action, with a high percentage of 0-0s at the break. - Bundesliga: 1. FSV Mainz 05 & FC St. Pauli
German football is known for goals, especially with Bayern Munich netting 51 times already this season. However, at the other end of the spectrum, Mainz and St. Pauli are struggling massively in attack, with only 13 goals scored total (full-time) across the campaign. When these teams play, the 0-0 HT price often holds value because the market overestimates the “Bundesliga goal tax.” - Serie A: Juventus
Under Thiago Motta, Juventus have been the masters of control. Their unbeaten run earlier this season was predicated on risk-free football. In Italy, the 0-0 HT is common, but Juve’s ability to suffocate games makes them the safest premium option for this trade.
How Traders Can Profit
The strategy for the remainder of December and January is clear:
- The “Scalp”: Back Under 0.5 Goals or 0-0 Correct Score at kick-off for Leeds, Fulham, or Osasuna matches. Look to exit the trade around the 30-35 minute mark for a guaranteed green book if the score remains goalless.
- The “Moyes” Angle: In Everton away games, lay the home team to score in the first half. The data suggests Moyes sets up to frustrate early.
- Fixture Targeting: Keep an eye on the Leeds vs. Fulham return fixture later in the season. It has “0-0 at Half-Time” written all over it.
Disclaimer: All stats are correct as of December 21, 2025. Trading involves risk; always manage your bankroll responsibly.