A Euros Preview.
What a Summer of Sports to Trade! We have the sumptuous 3 Grand Slam Tennis summer, and crowbarred inbetween we find the Euros , kicking off in Germany on the 14th June.
In this eletter I’ll talk through some of the available betting /trading markets and offer some tips. I must admit that I am not a tipster, rather a reactive trader, so please take my tips onboard with that in mind.
The Euros kick off with Germany warm order at 1.29 decimal odds to overcome the Scots. Now that is a tad dismissive of the Scots and of course factors in Germany as hosts. Have those Germans no respect for the Scots diet of Deep Fried Mars Bars and lashings of Irn Bru that has produced the likes of Souness and Jordan?
Quickly researching matches.
If you want a crash course in researching football matches, here’s some advice for Internationals at least. Use www.uk.soccerway.com
This website is excellent for International Football. It can provide you with form for teams in different competitions.
For Germany v Scotland, I would look to all form but ignore friendlies. We see, alarmingly, that the Scots are conceding goals each Euro qualifier. Germany had no qualifiers as hosts so their recent form is Friendly only and that offers us nothing to work with. Friendlies are for experimentation with squad and tactics surely?
Personally, Germany’s odds look far too short to me. Scotland have BraveHeart Scott McTominay who can turn up with crucial goals. This is a Germany in transition too!
I would lay Germany if they take the lead in this match and look to a possible McTominay goal at any time.
For those of you who want a short cut to research, I would highly recommend the Previews found at
- Uk.soccerway.com
– - www.soccer24.com
I cannot show you these previews at the moment as they tend to be freshly written near to match start date. At uk.soccerway.com I would recommend you read the Pre-Game Facts too. They offer juicy stats based nuggets that can help you make a betting decision.
The Winner Market.
England are favourite at odds of 4.3 and let’s be honest, Gareth ‘Interesting’ Waistcoat , the manager has an abundance of riches , particularly in attack.
Here are some teams I will back pre-Tournament who, I hope, will have enough longevity in the competition to allow me a profit.
Italy 19.5 decimal odds to back.
The Italians have something to prove. They also have had 2 Seria A sides in both the Europa League and Europa Conference League Finals. That may signal a resurgence in Italian football. Renowned defensively, if they click at the back, that will lay a solid foundation for a good run in the Tournament.
They are in a Group with Spain, Croatia and Albania.
Belgium at 23 odds to back.
With Vincent Company , the ex Belgian International, now manager of Bayern Munich, the Belgians themselves have a new manager who has seen his charges unbeaten in 12. I mention this at www.footballtradingprofits.com in what I call ‘ New Manager Syndrome’. New Managers can oftentimes engender almost immediate improvement.
At 23 decimal odds, that’s a nice price. They shouldn’t really come to any harm in Group E.
Croatia at 50 decimal odds.
They keep turning up in major World and European semi-finals and Finals and at 50 decimal odds are worth backing. Luka Modric may retire and if of course a huge miss. They are in the same group as Spain and Italy which, if navigated, will see those odds of 50 plummet ( me with my trader’s head on!).
Turkey 130 decimal odds.
They had an eyecatching Euro qualifying campaign with 3/3 away wins including a 0-1 v Croatia. A recent friendly win v Germany also catches the eye but friendly form is not that reliable. With Jose Mourinho now manager of Fenerbahce , will the National Side get a boost from the Special One’s Turkish excursion?
Golden Boot.
We look for longevity here. If we can find a team who can go deep, then naturally their striker will have a greater chance of accumulating goals. With that in mind, I have avoided Harry Kane!
Phil Foden at 29 decimal odds.
Premier League Player of the Year and scoring for fun, Phil may be the difference in tight matches.
Cole Palmer 60 decimal odds.
Likely to be the penalty taker, you never know England might get a flurry of penalties and Palmer dispatches them like a cloned Matt Le Tissier.
Jude Bellingham 26 decimal odds.
Another England player. It looks an easy group to get out of. Jude Bellingham is like Scot McTominay from Scotland, he has a great ability to time runs from midfield and finish consistently.
All England have to do now is go deep enough in the Tournament. It could be in the Group stages where we see the most goals!
Player of The Tournament.
A teary eyed pick of Toni Kroos ( 17.5 decimal odds), who recently retired from Real Madrid. He is a German, in his last Tournament as a German player and is an exceptional passer and dead ball specialist. They’ll be voting for him if Germany go deep and his assist/goal count is as good as it is for Real Madrid!
Trading the Football.
There are 2 gauges I use when determining the strength of a side.
1)The market! Let the market makers do the work for you. Certain odds bring with them their own assumptions.
Let’s take Germany at odds of 1.29 decimal. These odds suggest, in my experience, a goal at least before halftime, and a 3-0, 3-1 or any other home score ( Germany scoring 4 goals or more). As a football trader of some years, I find these patterns recur .
The corollary is the tough to call match. Watch out in any football match where the market has inserted the favourite at odds of 2.3 or higher. This infers that the market cannot really pick a winner in the match, so take the hint. Can you out perform the market? The match might be best left alone.
2)The FIFA World Rankings.
This is a useful gauge . Let’s look at Germany v Scotland at https://inside.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/men
16th v 39th. Germany are a side in the re-build phase. Scotland retain a top 40 ranking. They were recently 34th in the World.
I would recommend that you check out these rankings so you can weigh up the teams. Unlike trading and betting in League football, we don’t have regular head to heads to work from.
Those are the only 2 gauges. I do, admittedly, not trade Internationals too much. These tend to be one off affairs, heavily weighted tactically and we must remember there are no slouches really. The best XI from one country plays the best XI from another country.
I will catch up with you again next week and hope to provide some research for you for the opening matches. Have a Great Week. Any questions please feel free to contact me .