Friday, December 19, 2025
The festive period in the Premier League is usually synonymous with chaos: tired legs, rotated squads, and high-scoring thrillers. But as we head into Matchday 17 this weekend, a different, more profitable narrative is emerging at the bottom of the table. While the likes of Arsenal and Manchester City are trading blows at the summit, a handful of teams are suffering from a chronic inability to put the ball in the net.
As a bettor or fantasy manager, your instinct is often to hunt for goals. But in the current 2025/26 landscape, the smart money isn’t on who *will* score—it’s on who *won’t*.
Here is a deep dive into the Premier League’s most toothless attacks and how to exploit their struggles for profit during this busy December schedule.
### The Crisis Club: Wolverhampton Wanderers
The Stat: 9 goals in 16 games (0.56 per game).
The Manager: Rob Edwards.
Next Fixture: vs. Brentford (Home), Saturday Dec 20.
It is difficult to overstate just how dire the situation is at Molineux. Sitting rock bottom with just two points, Wolves are statistically one of the worst attacking sides we have seen in the Premier League era. The appointment of Rob Edwards on November 2—following the disastrous tenure of Vítor Pereira—was meant to bring stability, but the “new manager bounce” has been non-existent.
Wolves have failed to score more than a single goal in a league match since October. Their reliance on Jørgen Strand Larsen has yielded little fruit, and the service from midfield has been abysmal.
The Profit Angle:
* Wolves Team Total Under 1.5 Goals: This has hit in nearly every game this season. Until they prove otherwise, this is the safest play on the board.
* Brentford Clean Sheet: The Bees, managed by Keith Andrews, have been inconsistent, but they are facing an attack devoid of confidence.
* The “Win to Nil”: If you back Brentford to win, sprinkling a little extra on “Brentford to Win to Nil” offers significant value given Wolves’ scoring record.
### The Dyche Effect: Nottingham Forest
The Stat: 17 goals in 16 games.
The Manager: Sean Dyche.
Next Fixture: vs. Fulham (Away), Monday Dec 22.
The managerial merry-go-round at the City Ground has finally stopped spinning with the arrival of Sean Dyche in late October. After the brief, chaotic reigns of Nuno Espírito Santo and Ange Postecoglou earlier this season, Dyche has done what he does best: organized the defense and made Forest difficult to beat.
However, “difficult to beat” often translates to “difficult to watch.” Under Dyche, Forest’s xG (Expected Goals) numbers have flatlined. They are grinding out results, but they rarely blow teams away. They are averaging just over a goal a game, and away at Craven Cottage on Monday night, they will likely set up to frustrate Marco Silva’s Fulham rather than engage in a shootout.
The Profit Angle:
* Under 2.5 Match Goals: A Sean Dyche away day is the textbook definition of a low-scoring affair.
* Both Teams to Score (NO): Forest will look to keep this tight. If Fulham scores early, Forest lacks the explosive firepower to chase the game effectively.
### Honorable Mention: The Everton Resurgence (Defensively)
The Manager: David Moyes.
A quick note on Everton. Since David Moyes returned to Goodison Park in January 2025, he has slowly turned them into a respectable mid-table unit. While they aren’t “strugglers” in the same sense as Wolves (18 goals in 16 games), Moyes’ pragmatic approach means they are rarely scoring 2+ goals against top-tier opposition. They are a “stay away” for over bettors but a goldmine for “Under 2.5” hunters when they play away from home.
### The Strategy for Matchday 17
The market often overreacts to the “festive goal fest” narrative. Bookmakers inflate goal lines expecting tired defenses to leak chances. This creates value on the Under.
For this weekend:
1. Fade the Wolves attack completely against Brentford.
2. Back the Under in the Fulham vs. Nottingham Forest clash on Monday.
In a season where the relegation battle is defined by ineptitude rather than bad luck, betting against the strugglers is the most professional play you can make. Enjoy the football, and let the clean sheets roll in.