ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

19:45 – Cardiff v Wolverhampton – 2.62 Wolverhampton

• 1-2 Cardiff in the last head to head

Cardiff (2nd)

• the title could go to the winner of this match
• 8 wins and a draw last 9 matches
• unbeaten in 13 matches
• 7 consecutive home wins
• scored and conceded last 5 matches
• no draw in 13 at home
• scored in their last 11 matches
• 6 0-0’s at halftime at home ( 30%)
• lost 2-4 at home to 3rd – that was one of only 2 matches where Cardiff conceded 2 goals at least

Wolverhampton (1st)

• 3 wins and a 2-2 draw last 4 matches
• Draw. Loss, Loss , Win away from home recently
• 6 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches
• failed to score in their last 6 matches
• have lost away to 3rd and 4th this season
• 60% of Wolves goals scored away came 1st half

Conclusions

• the market is non-committal quite obviously. 1st v 2nd. Strictly on form, Wolves are struggling away from home v the top teams. They are also on a run of Draw, Loss, Loss, Win away. They have lost to 3rd and 4th and lost 1-2 to Cardiff earlier this season. This is a match where the teams could cancel each other out.
• If you think Wolves simply cannot cope with the top 4, lay Wolves if Wolves score first. – remember Cardiff have scored and conceded in their last 5 matches and last 11 matches overall.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

19:45 – St Etienne v PSG – 1.33 PSG

• 0-5 and 3-0 PSG last 2 head to heads

St Etienne (9th)

• unbeaten in 9 matches
• 2-2-2-1-1-2-1-2-3 goals scored recently is good form.
• only 2 0-0’s at halftime in the last 12 matches
• no 0-0 at halftime at home
• not beaten a top 6 side home or away
• 0-0-2-0-0-1-0 goals scored in those matches.

PSG (1st)

• 14 wins in their last 15 matches.
• failed to score only once
• only 2 0-0’s at halftime in their last 14 matches
• scored 2+ goals in their last 6 matches
• 100% wins v 6th-15th inclusive home and away.
• 5 0-0’s at halftime away is quite high at 33.3%

Conclusions

• There should be no surprises here. Yes, solid recent scoring for St Etienne but they have trouble even scoring against the top 6
• I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market but PSG do tend to a 1/3 of away matches 0-0 at halftime.
• I expect 2 goals at least from PSG today who are not distracted by the Champions League and will wrap the title up with another couple of wins I think.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

19:30 – Hannover v Werder Bremen – 2.5 Werder Bremen

• 2 consecutive Werder wins, scoring 4 goals in each match
• remember the odds – 2.5 – suggests a tough-to-call market

Hannover (13th)

• 5 consecutive defeats, with 3 1-0 losses
• 4 home losses in 5 matches
• conceded in their last 13 matches and last 7 at home
• only 1 0-0 at home
• 6 0-0’s at halftime at home ( 43%)
• very bitty home form.beat 2nd and 3rd for instance but lose to 15th and drew with 17th.
• scored in all bar 3 matches at home

Werder Bremen (12th)

• 18 games in for the new manager. That has seen all of Werder’s wins this season. Clearly a good impact from this new manager.
• 6 wins, 2 draws and a loss last 9 matches so solid stuff and this has provided much needed buffer to relegation
• Win, Loss, Draw, Win away last 4 matches
• only 2 0-0’s at halftime in 19 matches
• conceded in their last 9 away
• only 1 loss v 11th and lower home and away
• v 11th and lower away, Werder have struggled goals wise – 1-1, 1-0 loss, 1-1, 0-0, 0-0 but will recent goalscoring trump this?

Conclusions

• note the market suggests it’s too tough to call.
• Recent form? We must be with Werder Bremen’s momentum v Hannover’s 4 losses in 5 home matches .
• I am concerned with Werder’s lack of goalscoring v 11th and lower away but I think their ultra recent form could see a return to 2 goals.
• I will take a chance with Werder Bremen not losing today. It is a gamble because Hannover’s form at home is so iffy.
• Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on Werder  – again a risk given Hannover have had 43% 0-0’s at halftime at home

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

19:00 – Excelsior v Willem II – 2.24 Excelsior

• 0-2 Willem II and 1-2 Excelsior in the last 2 head to heads

Excelsior (11th)

• 3 losses in 4 matches
• 2 consecutive 1-2 losses at home
• only 1 win in 8 homematches
• only 1 0-0 at halftime in the last 10 matches
• 4 0-0’s at halftime at home ( 29%)
• unbeaten at home v 14th and lower conceding 0-0-0-1-0

Willem II (13th)

• 2 wins and a draw in the last 3 matches
• 5-2-3 goals scored last 3 matches
• 2 goals conceded in each of their last 2 matches
• only 4 clean sheets
• only 1 0-0 at halftime in 18 matches
• no win in 9 away
• 2 0-0’s at halftime away ( 14%)
• not beaten top 12 away.8 losses and a draw away v top 10
• conceded 2+ goals in 8 of 9 matches  away v top 10

Conclusions

• Excelsior are in poor recent form, 3 losses in 4 matches and only 1 win in 8 at home but contextually, they are unbeaten v 14th and lower, keeping 4/5 clean sheets
• They play a Willem II in good recent form but failing to beat any top 12 side and conceding 2+ goals in 8/9 matches away v top 10
• So tough to split 2 teams I made a case of opposing.
• Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on the stats .

SPANISH LA LIGA

20:00 – Deportivo v Malaga – 1.95 Deportivo

• In recent head to heads, the home team has tended to remain unbeaten.
• These are the bottom 2. This is a relegation six pointer so the form may be thrown out of the window here in the search for urgent points?

Deportivo (19th)

• 4 draws in their last 5 home matches
• no win in 15 matches and in 7 at home
• failed to score in 7 of their last 9 matches.
• v 10th and lower at home, Depor have played 9 matches and lost only once

Malaga (20th)

• 0-0 and 1-0 win last 2 matches. A charge for safety?
• 0-0-1-0-1-0-0 scored in recent aways is not the way to go for a charge to the safety line!
• no win in 7 away
• 8 0-0’s at halftime away
• 1-0 losses away v 16th and 18th
• 17 of 24 goals conceded away came 2nd half

Conclusions

• this is a traditional April relegation six pointer. If one team can take all 3 points off a fellow struggler, they will have a slim chance of avoiding relegation.
• Strictly on form, Deportivo should not lose, given their unbeaten form v 10th and lower.
• Malaga seem incapable of that 2nd goal so are layable if scoring first.
• No surprise to see a 0-0 at halftime.
• A possibility to back 0-0 pre match perhaps? Depor failed to score in 7 of their last 9 matches and Malaga have scored 0-0-1-0-1-0-0 in recent away matches

DUTCH EERSTE DIVISIE

19:00 – Helmond Sport v MVV Maastricht – 2.62 MVV
19:00 -Jong AZ Alkmaar v Dordrecht – 2.62 Jong
19:00 -FC Eindhoven v De Graafschap – 1.73 De Graaf

• 2-1 Eindhoven and 4-0 De Graaf last 2 head to heads

FC Eindhoven (17th)

• no draw in 15 and in 15 at home
• conceded in their last 15 and last 12 at home
• conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 7 matches
• 2 consecutive home wins were 5-2 and 3-2
• no 0-0 at halftime in 15 matches
• only 1 0-0 at halftime at home
• 1-3, 3-2, 2-3, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2 v top 6. Will this kind of a scoreline extend to 7th?

De Graafschap (7th)

• only 3 losses in 12 matches
• only 1 loss in 5 away
• scored in their last 12 away
• 5 0-0’s at halftime away ( 31%)
• 6 clean sheets and a single goal conceded home and away v 17th and lower

Conclusions

• lay any late draw based on FC Eindhoven’s draw avoidance at the moment.
• I would take a chance and lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. It is not 100% confidence given De Graaf have had 31% 0-0’s at halftime away and tend to keep clean sheets v 17th and lower ( ergo we rely it seems on a single team to conjure up a first half goal).

19:00 -Emmen v Volendam – 1.74 Emmen

• 3-1 and 2-3 Emmen in the last 2 head to heads

Emmen (5th)

• only 2 wins in 8 matches
• 2 losses and a 0-0 last 3 at home
• failed to score in only 5 matches
• 5 0-0’s at halftime at home (31%)
• only 2 home losses

Volendam (11th)

• 2 wins and a draw last 3 matches
• 4 losses and a draw away last 5 matches
• only 5 clean sheets
• conceded in their last 8 away
• conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 5 away matches
• no 0-0
• 2 0-0’s at halftime away ( 12.5%)
• 8 losses and a 2-2 away v top 10
• opponents led at halftime in 10/16 away matches

Conclusions

• Only 5 clean sheets for Volendam suggests they will concede at some point today. Indeed with Volendam conceding 2+ goals in each of their last 5 away matches, they may struggle here.
• Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based more on Volendam 10/16 away matches saw the opponent lead.
• Favour Emmen despite only 2 wins in 8. they have only 2 home losses ( albeit those came last 3 matches)

19:00 -Jong Ajax v NEC Nijmegen – 2.62 Jong Ajax
19:00 -Go Ahead Eagles v Fortuna Sittard – 1.85 Fortuna

• 3-0 and 2-1 Fortuna Sittard last 2 head to heads

Go Ahead Eagles (16th)

• only 2 losses in 8 matches
• only 5 clean sheets
• conceded in their last 6 at home
• 3 0-0’s at halftime at home (19%)
• only 2 wins at home v top 12 were v 3rd and 10th
• scored and conceded in 4/5 matches v top 6

Fortuna Sittard (1st)

• top of the league in a 3-way tussle
• 6 wins in their last 7 matches.
• 3 consecutive away wins
• 1-1-1-2-4-4-2 goals total before halftime in recent matches
• conceded in their last 13 away
• 5 0-0’s at halftime away ( 31%)
• 6 wins and a 2-2 v 16th and lower saw Fortuna score 2-2-3-3-3-6-3 goals
• 19 of 30 goals scored away came 2nd half

Conclusions

• Fortuna should be eyeing 2/3 goals today in a must win for them. Equally so, Go Ahead need a win for different reasons. Only 5 clean sheets for Go Ahead so lay them if they lead. Go Ahead to score v top 6
• I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on Fortuna’s recent pre-halftime totals of 2-4-4-2 goals.

19:00 -Almere City v Jong Utrecht – 1.46 Almere

• 2-4 Almere last head to head

Almere City (13th)

• only 2 wins in 11 matches
• only 1 win last 6 at home
• 22 over 2.5 goals matches in the last 25
• scored in their last 16 at home
• 2+ goals conceded in last 4 home matches
• only 2 0-0’s at halftime at home ( 12.5%)
• 5 wins out of 5 at home v 15th and lower
• 100% wins home and away v bottom 3
• 100% over 1.5 goals all season

Jong Utrecht (20th)

• 2 consecutive wins
• realistically are relegated but mathematically not so.
• conceded in their last 8 away
• only 2 0-0’s at halftime away (12.5%)
• 10 defeats and a 2-2 draw away v top 14

Conclusions

• if Almere have 100% over 1.5 goals, expect 2 goals total minimum today and an inference that we can lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market
• Almere’s recent form needs a context. 100% wins at home v 15th and lower should continue today.

19:00 -Den Bosch v Cambuur – 2.38 Cambuur
19:00 -FC Oss v Waalwijk – 1.94 FC Oss

IRISH PREMIER DIVISION

19:30 – Dundalk v Shamrock Rovers -1.79 Dundalk

• 0-0 last head to head.

Dundalk (2nd)

• keeping tabs on Cork.
• 8 matches played and unbeaten
• Not conceded a goal yet.
• 5 wins in 6 matches
• 3 0-0’s, 2 came away

Shamrock (4th)

• only draw this season was a 0-0 v Dundalk
• 2 consecutive losses
• losses have come away v 1st, 3rd and 7th

Conclusions

• early in the Irish Premier Division . Worth checking the teams out this early as this league will follow into the summer months
• It looks as if Shamrock will go down in a tight loss, one goal in it seems standard v the top 3. Remember the 0-0 last time these 2 met.
• Dundalk will concede a goal at some point. Today? Favour Dundalk if Shamrock do score first as Dundalk’s defence looks sound enough to not concede 2 goals.

19:45 – Bohemians v Limerick – 1.78 Bohemians

• 1-0 Limerick and 1-1 last 2 head to heads

Bohemians (8th)

• 2-2 and 2-1 last 2 at home in a poor opening
• Conceded in every match
• failed to score in 5 of their last 7 matches
• undefeated v bottom 3 where Limerick are positioned

Limerick (8th)

• failed to score in 4 of their last 5
• Took league leaders Cork to a 1-1
• 1-1 v bohs already this season

Conclusions

• Bohs are starting to score at home and that could see them through here in the battle of the 2 poor sides.
• Both sides have strong failing to score patterns albeit Bohs did score 2 goals in each of their last 2 at home.
• Lay Limerick if Limerick lead?

19:45 – St Patricks v Bray Wanderers – 1.32 St Patricks

• St Pats are very strong favourites simply because Bray have a draw and 7 consecutive defeats so far.
• 0-0-1-1 scored by Bray away suggests they are layable if leading. Where’s that 2nd goal?
• 0-0 v Dundalk and 1-0 v Limerick at home suggests defensive strengths for St Pats.
• 100% win record for St Pats v teams below them in the league ( bray are bottom)
• A huge shock were Bray to win

19:45 – Waterford v Cork City – 1.86 Cork

• Waterford are 3rd early season so are likely to give the league leaders a game.
• No draw yet for Waterford sees 6 wins and 2 defeats.2-0 away at Cork and 1-0 away at Dundalk
• Cork City have only lost to Dundalk. They have kept 3 clean sheets in 4 matches
• There is a suggestion that the top 2 are a step too far for Waterford in what will be a competitive match where they are likely not to win if scoring.
• Remember Cork 1-1 recently v Limerick were vulnerable.

TURKISH SUPER LIG

18:00 – Basaksehir v Yeni Malatyaspor – 1.35 Basaksehir

• 0-2 Basaksehir in the last head to head.

Basaksehir (2nd)

• only 5 defeats
• only 1 0-0 at halftime in the last 18 matches
• no 0-0
• only 2 0-0’s at halftime at home
• 8 wins an a 1-1 draw at home v 8th and lower

Yeni (9th)

• 2 losses in the last 3 matches
• 6 0-0’s at halftime is nearly 50%
• 3 defeats v top 6 away

Conclusions

• A gap in the form for Yeni but when they have met 4th-6th, they have lost away. Expectation for a win for Basaksehir today.
• I would have put up a lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on Basak but nearly 50% of Yeni away matches have seen a 0-0 at halftime